By Bill O'Reilly

This is an important "Factor" tonight because we're going to tell you straight up where the campaign is at this point in history -- no spin, no nonsense, no ideology.

Two new polls today have very good news for President Obama. Yet the polling in general continues to be fluid. That is, there is a wide discrepancy in the results and most importantly more Democrats were polled than Republicans so the results are somewhat suspect.

First the "The Washington Post" poll in Florida. It has President Obama leading Romney by four points, four points; 51 percent, 47 percent. But the "New York Times" poll has Obama up by nine points; 53 percent, 44 percent. Same state, same likely voter scenario.

In Ohio, "The Washington Post" has the President up by eight; 52 percent 44 percent. "Times" poll has Obama up by 10 over Romney; 53 percent, 43 percent. However, in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll, the national survey, the race is tied. A dead heat 46 percent 46 percent.

On this day four years ago, Rasmussen had Mr. Obama up by five points over John McCain; 50 percent, 45 percent. So a case could be made that Mitt Romney is doing better than John McCain did. But that might be misleading.

The presidential race is going to come down to just a handful of states Ohio and Florida being the most important. Governor Romney must win in both places; that's why today's polling news is causing controversy.

"Talking Points" has said from the very beginning that the debates this year will be the deciding factor. One week from tonight in Denver, Colorado, the President will meet the Governor beginning at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time. There's no question, and all the polls show this, that most Americans are not happy with President Obama's leadership, especially on the economy.

But the polls also say that many of the folks don't trust Mitt Romney. However, if the Governor can do what Ronald Reagan did in 1980, that is keep the incumbent President on the defense during the debates, then the polls will surely change.

But that's not an easy thing to do because the debate formats allow the candidates to say pretty much whatever they want to say. the moderator next week Jim Lehrer, is not going to control Obama or Romney. He'll ask a question the keep quiet.

That's not a knock on Lehrer that's just the way it is. Any interruptions are deemed inappropriate.

The problem Mitt Romney has right now is the perception that he's out of touch with the folks. The President has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on ads stating that. And the Governor does come across as a classic rich guy. It's tough to picture him super-sizing his meal at McDonald's.

The Kennedys were like that as well. But in this class warfare age, that perception is certainly holding Romney back. The President's record is dubious to say the least. But many Americans aren't paying attention and will vote on emotion, thus the rich guy versus the regular guy scenario.

So Governor Romney has only one chance. He must convince voters during the debates that if the President is re-elected, things are going to get much worse in America. Can he do that? Only God knows.

And that's "The Memo."

— You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com.