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In the first of a new weekly series on swing states in the 2016 presidential election, the Contributing Factor podcast takes a closer look at the election dynamics of Virginia and North Carolina.
Both Virginia and North Carolina were reliable Republican states at the end of the last century. Why are these states now toss ups? What issues are important to voters in Virginia? How will the controversy over North Carolina’s transgender bathroom law affect the presidential election? Will Hillary Clinton’s VP nominee, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, help or hurt in Virginia? Will the recent riots in Charlotte bring more voters to Trump as the “law-and-order” candidate?
On this episode, we answer these questions and more.
To break down Virginia politics, we talk with Professor Larry Sabato -- founder and director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
To analyze North Carolina, we interview Dr. John Dinan -- a professor in the department of politics and International Affairs at Wake Forest University.
Listen now for the best analysis of the key states in the 2016 election.
Virginia – 13 electoral votes (270 electoral votes needed to win the election)
Virginia Census Data:
- Voting-age population: 6.5 million (comparison to overall U.S. population in parenthesis)
o 18-to-44 years old: 47.9% (47.1%)
o 45-to-64 years old: 34.3% (34.1%)
o 65 years and older: 17.8% (18.9%)
- Racial demographics (comparison to overall U.S. population in parenthesis)
o White: 66.9% (66.3%)
o Hispanic: 7.8% (15.3%)
o Black: 19.3% (12.5%)
o Asian: 6.9% (6.0%)
- Economics (comparison to overall U.S. population in parenthesis)
o Median household income: $64,902 ($53,657)
o Poverty rate: 10.6% (13.6%)
o Bachelor’s degree or higher: 36.7% (30.1%)
- 2012 presidential election result – Barack Obama (D): 51.16%; Mitt Romney (R): 47.28% (source: Federal Election Commission)
North Carolina – 15 electoral votes (270 electoral votes needed to win the election)
North Carolina Census Data:
- Voting-age population: 7.7 million (comparison to overall U.S. population in parenthesis)
o 18-to-44 years old: 46.8% (47.1%)
o 45-to-64 years old: 34.1% (34.1%)
o 65 years and older: 19.1% (18.9%)
- Racial demographics (comparison to overall U.S. population in parenthesis)
o White: 68.1% (66.3%)
o Hispanic: 7.2% (15.3%)
o Black: 21.3% (12.5%)
o Asian: 2.8% (6.0%)
- Economics (comparison to overall U.S. population in parenthesis)
o Median household income: $46,556 ($53,657)
o Poverty rate: 15.1% (13.6%)
o Bachelor’s degree or higher: 28.7% (30.1%)
- 2012 presidential election result – Mitt Romney (R): 50.39%; Barack Obama (D): 48.35% (source: Federal Election Commission)
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