Gallup says 91% of Republicans like the President, but just 17% of the Democrats do. In a bad news situation for Mr. Bush, Gallup also sees independent voters shifting away from the Chief Executive.

What's in play here, I believe, is the increasing polarization of the country, not just the policies of President Bush. We have entered an age where character assassination in the political arena is handsomely rewarded by media chieftains, and standards of civility in the general debate have declined drastically. Political bombthrowers are everywhere: on the radio, on cable, on the pages of smear books. Everybody's a liar, everybody's a cad or cad-ette, and, unfortunately, some of us are eating this stuff up.

So President Bush shouldn't take the polarization thing personally; it's more about the culture than him. But there is danger here for the President, as it can be difficult to change strong perceptions that can emerge from sensational accusations, proved or not.

Therefore, it is puzzling that the President does not want to do battle in the culture war, which might bring him more supporters. At this point, his "people" believe he can win re-election as a terror warrior and a tax cutter.

I don't believe that will be enough.

Americans are an emotional people, and right now, the emotion is in social issues like job outsourcing, gay marriage and the eviction of God from the public arena. Senator Kerry is hitting the outsourcing thing all day long, so that leaves the President with the "decline of civilization" issues. But he doesn't like them. Neither did his father.

My observation is that George W. Bush is not a confrontational guy unless you disrespect him, his family or the country. Saddam made a huge mistake by trying to pull a Soprano hit on Bush the elder in Kuwait. When riled up, the President is a hard guy to rile down.

But he doesn't rile easily. Do you really believe the President cares if Vinnie marries Eric? Mr. Bush may sabre-rattle against the lawlessness of issuing gay marriage licenses, but, believe me, he couldn't care less what gays are doing as long as they don't do it in Crawford.

As for the crass media culture, well, the President was asleep during the Janet Jackson exposure, and will probably stay in the land of nod on this issue. Steroids are one thing, but mentioning Ludacris and his pals in a presidential speech simply will never happen.

One of the problems that Mr. Bush has (and Senator Kerry has as well) is that he is not down with the folks and never has been. The concerns of parents vis-a-vis the culture are mostly theoretical to him. While campaigning for President the first time around, Mr. Bush could not name the leader of Pakistan. My money says he doesn't know who 50 Cent is either.

That kind of distance from the streets is a big deficit for the President because he is not a snobby guy. He genuinely relates to people and must use that personality trait to his advantage against Kerry if he is to win. Mr. Bush has got to convince the traditional folks, who heavily outnumber the "progressives," that he understands their values and will fight for them.

But we have seen little of that from the President. We know he likes God, but besides the ACLU, who doesn't? We don't know if Mr. Bush will stand and fight against our cultural collapse, or turn in early. We're all tired, Mr. President, but there's a big national brawl going on. Get in it and you might win. Stay away and you can turn out the lights.