"A broad disenchantment with the direction of America has fueled Donald Trump's campaign, and that can be laid right on the progressive doorstep. There are four main themes that Trump is exploiting. First, illegal immigration. Powerful progressives like Bernie Sanders and the New York Times are open borders people, but many Americans are horrified by that stance and have watched with anger as immigration law has been disrespected and even mocked. Second, economic anxiety. Most Americans know someone who has gotten hammered in the marketplace, and most Americans do not have much money in the bank. Trump says he will punish concerns that steal American jobs and are unfair on the trade front. Third, U.S. weakness. Americans are appalled by the continuing atrocities coming out of the Muslim world. President Obama's policy of containment and refusal to define the Islamic jihad as a true danger to the USA has lit a fuse of deep resentment. Finally, political betrayal. It is widely perceived that progressive Americans are on the march and traditional folks on the decline. Trump portrays himself as an avenger, a man fed up with political correctness and the social fascism that often brings. His outspoken attacks galvanize Americans who are disenchanted by a society that puts grievance above achievement, permissiveness above order. After nearly eight years of the most liberal president in U.S. history, millions of voters have had enough of a system that denigrates their values and caters to non-working individuals. They want someone to blow that system to hell. That's why Trump is winning. He pinpointed disenchantment long before anyone else."

Donald Trump gave what he billed as a major foreign policy address Wednesday. The Factor evaluated the speech with foreign policy analyst Gillian Turner and former CIA boss James Woolsey. "I'll give him a 'P' for pass," Turner declared, "because he did well. He brought this speech to the Washington establishment's home turf and played by their rules. He hired a speechwriter, used a teleprompter, and really put a lot of preparation into the speech. He provided a historical framework for some of the issues we are facing." Woolsey also lauded Trump for taking a turn toward substance. "I'd give him a B-minus, which is a big rise from where he has been in the past. While there were caustic parts of the speech, it was substantive. But I don't like his propensity for protectionism and his talk about re-thinking NATO."

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, having essentially vanquished their primary opponents, are training their sights on one another. FNC correspondent Ed Henry reported the latest from the Clinton campaign. "I think the Clinton team has mixed emotions about running against Trump," he began. "Publicly they say they are ecstatic and they can beat Trump, but they also know how unconventional Trump is and how much people are in the mood for change. She is obviously a big-time establishment figure and he has confounded the pundits, so they are not sure he will be so easy to beat. Trump says all she has is the 'woman card,' but the Clinton team says she brings unique experience as a woman."

Political pollsters Patrick Murray and Kirstin Soltis Anderson entered the No Spin Zone to analyze the latest poll numbers that show Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup. "This is still a hypothetical for most voters," Murray said, "and even now most independents are not paying attention to what is going on. When you call them on the phone and ask who they will vote for, they give you a gut reaction." Anderson theorized that the high negative views of both candidates are unlikely to change. "Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have been in the headlines for decades, so they have established brands. And there is a large segment of Americans who have a pretty unfavorable view of both of them. This is likely to be a nasty campaign, so it's unlikely that anyone's favorables will go up."

The Factor welcomed Monica Crowley and Eboni Williams, who assessed Ted Cruz's announcement that Carly Fiorina will be his running mate. "A Cruz-Fiorina ticket would be a great one," Crowley declared, "but that's not what this is about. Ted Cruz is throwing a 'Hail Mary' pass as he goes to the do-or-die state of Indiana." Williams dismissed the move as ineffectual. "No offense to Ms. Fiorina, but if she was the magic wand that was going to round up female enthusiasm, she would still be in the race herself. People weren't that impressed with what they saw of her." Crowley turned to a poll showing that a majority of women are simply not engaged in the election. "A lot of women," she surmised, "are factoring in the idea that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be the nominees and they are tuning out." Williams added, "Many women are tired of Hillary Clinton, she's not new, she's not Barack Obama."

The Factor asked Republican Congressman Trey Gowdy for an update on Kate's Law, which would protect Americans from violent illegal felons. "The Judiciary Committee has passed a version of Kate's Law," Gowdy said, "which has mandatory minimums for re-entry after deportation. There is also a provision that deals with sanctuary cities and a provision that deals with empowering state and local law enforcement. Without those two fixes, there would simply be another law for this administration to not enforce." The Factor urged Gowdy and his colleagues to enact a stand-alone version of the law: "You're never going to eliminate sanctuary cities under this president, but I think he would have to sign Kate's Law. Start the process!"

Some anti-Trump protesters and supporters have come to blows in California. Dennis Miller opined on the escalating chaos. "We live in the age of the violent do-gooder," he groused, "and this is not just happening in California. Can I say this to the parents out there in all fifty states? If you go to a political rally and take your kid with you, you are a moron and a bad parent. Leave your kids at home, it's going to get weird out there. You know this is going to get feisty." Miller also agreed with Donald Trump's observations about John Kasich's eating habits. "Bluto Blutarsky in Animal House didn't eat like Kasich eats! He eats like Beowulf if he had survived the Chilean plane wreck in the Andes. C'mon John, chew your food!"

Selma Alpert, Los Angeles, CA: "Bill, it's time you started taking Donald Trump seriously. You were stunned by his New York victory."

Gayle Caldwell, Dallas, TX: "O'Reilly, you said all hell will break loose if Trump is denied the nomination at the convention. He must go by the rules."

Stephen Zolner, Lake Havasu City, AZ: "Bill, why haven't you pointed out that Cruz and Kasich are both politicians, and as such are part of the overbearing political corruption we have?"

The prediction game is never easy, especially when you're going against conventional wisdom. But The Factor's political prognostication has been uncanny and right on the mark throughout this primary season.