No Spin News

Obama rewards big donors with plum jobs overseas

2009-11-21T01:26:00Z

The patronage system is in. Is this change we can believe in?

Now I'm not sniping him. I'm not nitpicking him. But it looks like politics as usual to me. But of course I could be wrong.

Oprah announces she'll end her talk show in 2011

2009-11-21T01:20:00Z

It's amazing. I don't know her very well. I've been on her program twice. I think she does a lot of good with her money. But the amount of money that the woman has is just staggering. And you can't possibly spend it all. It's impossible to spend all the money she has. So I don't know why she wants to have a cable channel, but apparently she does.

Dems gear up for Saturday vote to proceed on health care bill

2009-11-21T01:19:00Z

I'm taking a look at this bill. It's a 2000 page play. I can't read it. I'm against the bill because of that. The unintended consequences of a bill like this are staggering. The cost is way too high. So I'm against it. I want health care reform, but this is way out of control.

Fort Hood shooter sent money to Islamic charities

2009-11-21T01:05:00Z

This guy Hasan is a totally ridiculous. He donated all this money to "Islamic charities." What that really means is they buy bazookas.

This week's new crossword: All About Sarah

2009-11-20T20:41:00Z

As Governor Palin ventures into the No Spin Zone for the first time, she is the subject of this week's crossword. Play it online or print it out for the road.

Go: O'Reilly crossword

New website aims to "out" gay priests

2009-11-20T00:19:00Z

A website trying to out gay priests? You know, we have no shortage of villains and evil in this country, and this is a perfect example of that.

Senate health care bill tops 2,000 pages

2009-11-20T00:17:00Z

The Senate health care bill is 2,000 pages long. I'm sorry, but I can't read it for you. I can't do it. I'm not supporting this... it's crazy.

AARP: 500 jobs from $18M stimulus?

2009-11-20T00:13:00Z

We're investigating the AARP; apparently they received $18 million in stimulus money, but what are they doing with it? They say "job training," and that they've created 500 jobs... but out of $18 million? Come on. Of course, the AARP has been very sympathetic to President Obama, but we're doing our due diligence here. We're not going to harpoon them unless we believe there's a quid-pro-quo.

Walter Reed chief flagged Hasan in May 2007

2009-11-20T00:09:00Z

NPR—we've got to give them credit. They're on this Fort Hood story big time. Now we're finding out that a supervisor at Walter Reed Army Medical Center flagged Maj. Hasan as an incompetent. He told everybody. Everybody in the Army knew it, and nobody did anything about it. Why? Because Hasan is a Muslim. He's paralyzed from the waist down, but you have a right to be angry. I'm angry, you're angry... everybody's angry. And this can never happen again.

Bill's Latest Column: Hammering Sarah

2009-11-19T22:42:00Z

In his new column for this week, Bill analyzes the left-wing media's constant attacks of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Go: Bill's latest column

Clint Eastwood: America is more juvenile

2009-11-19T01:11:00Z

Clint Eastwood is saying America has become more juvenile and that we've become a nation of teenage twits. I'm not exactly sure what a twit is, but I don't think it's good—and if Clint Eastwood says that's what we've become, then that's what we've become.

Debate over Senate climate bill delayed

2009-11-19T01:09:00Z

Senate Democratic leaders said they are putting off a big debate on climate change until spring because it will be warmer... just a joke. I believe in climate change, but Joe Bastardi has almost convinced me its bull. He's the Accuweather.com guy—he's almost convinced me.

Ft. Hood shooter likely "self-radicalized"

2009-11-19T01:07:00Z

Many now believe that the Fort Hood shooter was self-radicalized—he wasn't told what to do, he did it himself because he was a nut and a terrorist. That's not a good combo. If you're a terrorist and a nut, bad things are going to happen.

National debt tops $12 trillion

2009-11-19T01:06:00Z

This is ridiculous—$39,000 for every man, woman, and child in the U.S.A.? I mean, there's no way we can pay this back. That's why the dollar has gone down the drain. That, of all the things going on right now, is the undoing of Barack Obama, and Quinnipiac, as I mentioned, has Obama at under a 50% job approval rating.

Americans disapprove of Afghan war

2009-11-19T01:00:00Z

The Afghan war is chaotic, and it hasn't been well defined. President Obama hasn't been able to really tell the American people what's going on there. I don't really take this poll that seriously, but if we're going to spend billions of dollars in Afghanistan and people are going to die there, President Obama better step up and explain the situation. That's all I'm asking. I would provide the security of the troops because the general asked, but would I stay there forever? No. But Obama is really not defining the war at all.

New Backstage Conversation now online!

2009-11-18T19:22:00Z

What does Bill think about the first-time homebuyer credit of $8,000? Hear Bill's answer to this question, and many more, in this week's Backstage Conversation webcast.

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

New York Governor says Obama is wrong about terror trials

2009-11-18T01:42:00Z

Paterson says it's crazy to try Khalid Sheik Mohammed in New York City. However the Mayor, Michael Bloomberg, says it's fine, and so does the police chief. I'd love to get those guys on the program, but they're not step-up guys.

But we're going to cover this story in great detail.

China complains to Obama about the weak dollar

2009-11-18T01:34:00Z

The Chinese are very unhappy with Pres. Obama because of the dollar. The Chinese aren't the only ones. I'm pretty unhappy the dollar is cratering. Anybody with investments doesn't want that. It's ridiculous.

Palin slams Newsweek for "sexist" and "degrading" cover photo

2009-11-18T01:31:00Z

Newsweek is going to make her look bad no matter what. That's why Newsweek is going out of business. It's not a fair publication.

Also, the far left is now calling Sarah Palin "Evita." This is what they do. They try to destroy people with whom they disagree. We do not do that. We actually respect honest disagreement on The Factor.

I interviewed Sarah Palin today for an hour. I think you're going to like it. It's different than anything she's ever done. We're going to run it Thursday, Friday and Saturday. So it's a lot of Gov. Palin, but it's worth it.

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, November 17

2009-11-17T21:23:00Z

PALIN ATTACKS
As Sarah Palin gets ready to roll out her new book, the far-left continues to viciously attack her. Now some are even comparing her to the beloved former first lady of Argentina, Eva Peron.

"I believe that Sarah Palin is a feminine version of Ronald Reagan."
Earl Miller
San Diego, CA

"The left's description of Palin as a populist shallow demagogue fits Obama better."
Nancy Breshears
Carrollton, TX

"It appears that Naomi Wolf's expensive private school didn't tell her that Eva Peron was a socialist. Sarah Palin is no socialist."
Tom Quigan
Oxnard, CA

"I don't hate Palin. I'm sure she'd make a fine neighbor. But I fear the country would end up in the hands of another George W. Bush with her."
Linda Schwartz
Rocklin, CA

"Palin is not a viable candidate for 2012. A strong resume will be required to defeat Barack Obama -- maybe someone like Mitt Romney."
Dennis Warner
Seattle, WA

"The media's attempt to degrade Sarah Palin is only making her stronger, in my opinion. When I look at Newsweek, I see a confident, intelligent and successful working mother who takes care of herself."
Ryan Tetting
Appleton, WI

"I like Mrs. Palin because she is not a Washington insider and represents the same values I believe in, so if she runs I will vote for her."
Charles Graves
Jackson, MS

TERROR ON TRIAL
The debate continues about whether the Obama administration is making a mistake by trying 9/11 terror suspects in civilian court in NYC.

"You got it wrong. Obama doesn't want to try the terrorists, he wants to try the Bush administration."
Rafael Gutierrez
Kimberly, ID

"People express the puzzlement about the motive of having terror trials in New York. It seems probably this is a device to diminish media attention on health care reform."
Jim Kennedy
Bellevue, WA

"The Obama administration thinks this three-ring circus will take the media attention off from all the mistakes its making."
Linda Allen
Brookfield, WI

"Obama wants the terror trials in NYC civilian court so there is less of a chance of the death penalty. He doesn't need to give terrorists more of a reason to attack us."
Mike Vize
Poughkeepsie, NY

"Eric Holder's argument that the guy is guilty is prejudicial. If they want to give KSM a fair trial, they're off to a rotten start."
Dennis & Elise Carr
Charlotte, NC

"Since KSM was picked up overseas and held overseas, I assume he never set foot on U.S. soil. Wasn't his crime, while committed in the U.S., planned in Afghanistan and Pakistan?"
Kim Brown
Kansas City, MO

"Declaring war on an unlawful and non-sovereign group like al Qaeda would be like declaring war on a flock of seagulls. It makes absolutely no sense."
Shane Parker
Maumelle, AR

"Eric Holder wants these trials in the U.S. in order to bring down the CIA."
Paul Cappello
Boca Raton, FL

SO LONG, LOU!
The Southern Poverty Law Center claims responsibility for getting Lou Dobbs fired from CNN for his controversial take on illegal immigration.

"Why didn't you ask Mr. Cohen why he hasn't formed a group to shut down those on MSNBC who spew lies and hatred every single day?"
David Peterson
Middletown, OH

"It seems to be a common tactic of far-left organizations like the SPLC to attempt winning debates by silencing the opposition."
Chris Fausett
East Hampton, NY

"The Constitution guarantees us freedom of speech, not freedom from the consequences of our speech. Lou Dobbs is suffering the consequences of what he's said."
Luke Fox
Manhattan, KS

"Typical lefty mentality by Mr. Cohen -- Lou Dobbs can only be on CNN if he says what Mr. Cohen wants to hear."
Larry Veasman, Jr.
Ann Arbor, MI

PLEDGE PROTEST
An Alabama kid says he refuses to say the Pledge of Allegiance at school until gay couples are allowed to marry.

"The boy's parents should strive to educate him better. Parsing the Pledge is yet another step down a slippery slope."
Dan LaChance
Sierra Vista, AZ

"Before the little tyke interns at the ACLU, he should spend a year in Somalia, where he will most certainly learn the meaning of liberty and justice."
Barbara Thornberry
Middletown, NJ

"The kid refusing to say the Pledge doesn't understand it. Our country does indeed stand for liberty and justice for all."
Elaine Wolfe
Atascadero, CA

"I think the boy who refuses to say the Pledge was encouraged by his parents to be rebellious. He should show more respect for his country."
Angelika Swantek
Farmingdale, NY

"I have to admit, I think the 5th grade boy is right. We no longer strive for liberty and justice for all."
Janice Lasley
Grapevine, TX

"This is not some declaration for political purposes. It is a citizens pledge to support liberty and justice for all. You can't take from this country without giving anything back."
Richard Winn
Carbondale, CO

"Not only do many students refuse to pledge to the flag, but they delight in the disrupting those who do say the pledge. We are losing this generation."
Linda Grubb
Martingsburg, WV

"If the government can't compel a kid to say the Pledge of Allegiance, how can they think about compelling us to buy health insurance?"
Mort Melhouse
St. Petersburg, FL

Stratfor.com: Deciphering the Mohammed Trial

2009-11-17T20:28:00Z

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder has decided that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will be tried in federal court in New York. Holder's decision was driven by the need for the U.S. government to decide how to dispose of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, a U.S. Naval base outside the boundaries of the United States selected as the camp in which to hold suspected al Qaeda members.

We very carefully use the word "camp" rather than prison or prisoner of war camp. This is because of an ongoing and profound ambiguity not only in U.S. government perceptions of how to define those held there, but also due to uncertainties in international law, particularly with regard to the Geneva Conventions of 1949. Were the U.S. facility at Guantanamo a prison, then its residents would be criminals. If it were a POW camp, then they would be enemy soldiers being held under the rules of war. It has never really been decided which these men are, and therefore their legal standing has remained unclear.

War vs. Criminal Justice
The ambiguity began shortly after 9/11, when then-U.S. President George W. Bush defined two missions: waging a war on terror, and bringing Osama bin Laden and his followers to justice. Both made for good rhetoric. But they also were fundamentally contradictory. A war is not a judicial inquiry, and a criminal investigation is not part of war.

An analogy might be drawn from Pearl Harbor. Imagine that in addition to stating that the United States was at war with Japan, Franklin Roosevelt also called for bringing the individual Japanese pilots who struck Hawaii to justice under American law. This would make no sense. As an act of war, the Japanese action fell under the rules of war as provided for in international law, the U.S. Constitution and the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ). Japanese pilots could not be held individually responsible for the lawful order they received. In the same sense, trying to bring soldiers to trial in a civilian court in the United States would make no sense. Creating a mission in which individual Japanese airmen would be hunted down and tried under the rules of evidence not only would make no sense, it would be impossible. Building a case against them individually also would be impossible. Judges would rule on evidence, on whether an unprejudiced jury could be found, and so on. None of this happened, of course-World War II was a war, not a judicial inquiry.

It is important to consider how wars are conducted. Enemy soldiers are not shot or captured because of what they have done; they are shot and captured because of who they are-members of an enemy military force. War, once launched, is pre-emptive. Soldiers are killed or captured in the course of fighting enemy forces, or even before they have carried out hostile acts. Soldiers are not held responsible for their actions, but neither are they immune to attack just because they have not done anything. Guilt and innocence do not enter into the equation. Certainly, if war crimes are in question, charges may be brought; the UCMJ determines how they will be tried by U.S. forces. Soldiers are tried by courts-martial, not by civilian courts, because of their status as soldiers. Soldiers are tried by a jury of their peers, and their peers are held to be other soldiers.

International law is actually not particularly ambiguous about the status of the members of al Qaeda. The Geneva Conventions do not apply to them because they have not adhered to a fundamental requirement of the Geneva Conventions, namely, identifying themselves as soldiers of an army. Doing so does not mean they must wear a uniform. The postwar Geneva Conventions make room for partisans, something older versions of the conventions did not. A partisan is not a uniformed fighter, but he must wear some form of insignia identifying himself as a soldier to enjoy the conventions' protections. As Article 4.1.6 puts it, prisoners of war include "Inhabitants of a non-occupied territory, who on the approach of the enemy spontaneously take up arms to resist the invading forces, without having had time to form themselves into regular armed units, provided they carry arms openly and respect the laws and customs of war." The Geneva Conventions of 1949 does not mention, nor provide protection to, civilians attacking foreign countries without openly carrying arms.

The reasoning behind this is important. During the Franco-Prussian war, French franc-tireurs fired on Prussian soldiers. Un-uniformed and without insignia, they melded into the crowd. It was impossible for the Prussians to distinguish between civilians and soldiers, so they fired on both, and civilian casualties resulted. The framers of the Geneva Conventions held the franc-tireurs, not the Prussian soldiers, responsible for the casualties. Their failure to be in uniform forced the Prussians to defend themselves at the cost of civilian lives. The franc-tireurs were seen as using civilians as camouflage. This was regarded as outside the rules of war, and those who carried out such acts were seen as not protected by the conventions. They were not soldiers, and were not to be treated as such.

An Ambiguous Status
Extending protections to partisans following World War II was seen as a major concession. It was done with concerns that it not be extended so far that combatants of irregular forces could legally operate using their ability to blend in with surrounding civilians, and hence a requirement of wearing armbands. The status of purely covert operatives remained unchanged: They were not protected under the Geneva Conventions. Their status remained ambiguous.

During World War II, it was U.S. Army practice to hold perfunctory trials followed by executions. During the Battle of the Bulge, German commandos captured wearing U.S. uniforms-in violation of the Geneva Conventions-were summarily tried in field courts-martial and executed. The idea that such individuals were to be handed over to civilian courts was never considered. The actions of al Qaeda simply were not anticipated in the Geneva Conventions. And to the extent they were expected, they violated the conventions.
Holder's decision to transfer Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to federal court makes it clear that Mohammed was not a soldier acting in time of war, but a criminal. While during times of war spies are tried as criminals, their status is precarious, particularly if they are members of an enemy army. Enemy soldiers out of uniform carrying out reconnaissance or espionage are subject to military, not civilian, justice, and frequently are executed. A spy captured in the course of collecting information is a civilian, particularly in peacetime, and normally is tried as a criminal with rules of evidence.

Which was Mohammed? Under the Geneva Conventions, his actions in organizing the Sept. 11 attacks, which were carried out without uniforms or other badges of a combatant, denies him status and protection as a POW. Logically, he is therefore a criminal, but if he is, consider the consequences.

Criminal law is focused on punishments meted out after the fact. They rarely have been preventive measures. In either case, they follow strict rules of evidence, require certain treatments of prisoners and so on. For example, prisoners have to be read the Miranda warning. Soldiers are not policeman. They are not trained or expected to protect the legal rights of captives save as POWs under the UCMJ, nor protect the chain of custody of evidence nor countless other things that are required in a civilian court. In criminal law, it is assumed that law enforcement has captured the prisoner and is well-versed in these rules. In this case, the capture was made without any consideration of these matters, nor would one expect such consideration.

Consider further the role of U.S. covert operations in these captures. The United States conducts covert operations in which operatives work out of uniform and are generally not members of the military. Operating outside the United States, they are not protected by U.S. law although they do operate under the laws and regulations promulgated by the U.S. government. Much of their operations run counter to international and national law. At the same time, their operations are accepted as best practices by the international system. Some operate under cover of diplomatic immunity but carry out operations incompatible with their status as diplomats. Others operate without official cover. Should those under unofficial cover be captured, their treatment falls under local law, if such exists. The Geneva Conventions do not apply to them, nor was it intended to.

Spies, saboteurs and terrorists fall outside the realm of international law. This class of actors falls under the category of national law, leaving open the question of their liability if they conduct acts inimical to a third country. Who has jurisdiction? The United States is claiming that Mohammed is to be tried under the criminal code of the United States for actions planned in Afghanistan but carried out by others in the United States. It is a defensible position, but where does this leave American intelligence planners working at CIA headquarters for actions carried out by others in a third country? Are they subject to prosecution in the third country? Those captured in the third country clearly are, but the claim here is that Mohammed is subject to prosecution under U.S. laws for actions carried out by others in the United States. And that creates an interesting reciprocal liability.

A Failure to Evolve
The fact is that international law has not evolved to deal with persons like Mohammed. Or more precisely, most legal discussion under international law is moving counter to the Geneva Conventions' intent, which was to treat the franc-tireurs as unworthy of legal protection because they were not soldiers and were violating the rules of war. International law wants to push Mohammed into a category where he doesn't fit, providing protections that are not apparent under the Geneva Conventions. The United States has shoved him into U.S. criminal law, where he doesn't fit either, unless the United States is prepared to accept reciprocal liability for CIA personnel based in the United States planning and supporting operations in third countries. The United States has never claimed, for example, that the KGB planners who operated agents in the United States on behalf of the Soviet Union were themselves subject to criminal prosecution.

A new variety of warfare has emerged in which treatment as a traditional POW doesn't apply and criminal law doesn't work. Criminal law creates liabilities the United States doesn't want to incur, and it is not geared to deal with a terrorist like Mohammed. U.S. criminal law assumes that capture is in the hands of law enforcement officials. Rights are prescribed and demanded, including having lawyers present and so forth. Such protections are practically and theoretically absurd in this case: Mohammed is not a soldier and he is not a suspected criminal presumed innocent until proven guilty. Law enforcement is not a practical counter to al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. A nation cannot move from the rules of counterterrorism to an American courtroom; they are incompatible modes of operation. Nor can a nation use the code of criminal procedures against a terrorist organization operating transnationally. Instead, they must be stopped before they commit their action, and issuing search warrants and allowing attorneys present at questioning is not an option.

Therefore-and now we move to the political reality-it is difficult to imagine how the evidence accumulated against Mohammed could enter a courtroom. Ignoring the methods of questioning, which is a separate issue, how can one prove his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt without compromising sources and methods, and why should one? Mohammed was on a battlefield but not operating as a soldier. Imagine doing criminal forensics on a battlefield to prove the criminal liability of German commandos wearing American uniforms.
In our mind, there is a very real possibility that Mohammed could be found not guilty in a courtroom. The cases of O.J. Simpson and of Jewish Defense League head Rabbi Meir Kahane's killer, El Sayyid Nosair-both found not guilty despite overwhelming evidence-come to mind. Juries do strange things, particularly amid what will be the greatest media circus imaginable in the media capital of the world.

But it may not be the jury that is the problem. A federal judge will have to ask the question of whether prejudicial publicity of such magnitude has occurred that Mohammed can't receive a fair trial. (This is probably true.) Questions will be raised about whether he has received proper legal counsel, which undoubtedly he hasn't. Issues about the chain of custody of evidence will be raised; given that he was held by troops and agents, and not by law enforcement, the chances of compromised evidence is likely. The issue of torture will, of course, also be raised but that really isn't the main problem. How do you try a man under U.S. legal procedures who was captured in a third country by non-law enforcement personnel, and who has been in military custody for seven years?

There is a nontrivial possibility that he will be acquitted or have his case thrown out of court, which would be a foreign policy disaster for the United States. Some might view it as a sign of American adherence to the rule of law and be impressed, others might be convinced that Mohammed was not guilty in more than a legal sense and was held unjustly, and others might think the United States has bungled another matter.

The real problem here is international law, which does not address acts of war committed by non-state actors out of uniform. Or more precisely, it does, but leaves them deliberately in a state of legal limbo, with captors left free to deal with them as they wish. If the international legal community does not like the latter, it is time they did the hard work of defining precisely how a nation deals with an act of war carried out under these circumstances.

The international legal community has been quite vocal in condemning American treatment of POWs after 9/11, but it hasn't evolved international law, even theoretically, to cope with this. Sept. 11 is not a crime in the proper sense of the term, and prosecuting the guilty is not the goal. Instead, it was an act of war carried out outside the confines of the Geneva Conventions. The U.S. goal is destroying al Qaeda so that it can no longer function, not punishing those who have acted. Similarly the goal in 1941 was not punishing the Japanese pilots at Pearl Harbor but destroying the Japanese Empire, and any Japanese soldier was a target who could be killed without trial in the course of combat. If it wishes to solve this problem, international law will have to recognize that al Qaeda committed an act of war, and its destruction has legal sanction without judicial review. And if some sort of protection is to be provided al Qaeda operatives out of uniform, then the Geneva Conventions must be changed, and with it the status of spies and saboteurs of all countries.

Holder has opened up an extraordinarily complex can of worms with this decision. As U.S. attorney general, he has committed himself to proving Mohammed's guilt beyond a reasonable doubt while guaranteeing that his constitutional rights (for a non-U.S. citizen captured and held outside the United States under extraordinary circumstances by individuals not trained as law enforcement personnel, no less) are protected. It is Holder's duty to ensure Mohammed's prosecution, conviction and fair treatment under the law. It is hard to see how he can.

Whatever the politics of this decision-and all such decisions have political dimensions-the real problem faced by both the Obama and Bush administrations has been the failure of international law to evolve to provide guidance on dealing with combatants such as al Qaeda. International law has clung to a model of law governing a very different type of warfare despite new realities. International law must therefore either reaffirm the doctrine that combatants who do not distinguish themselves from noncombatants are not due the protections of international law, or it must clearly define what those protections are. Otherwise, international law discredits itself.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

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Viewer Mail for Monday, November 16

2009-11-16T21:35:00Z

FACTOR EXCLUSIVE
Long-time CNN anchor Lou Dobbs enters the no spin zone to explain his sudden departure from the competition.

"Thanks for having Lou Dobbs on your show and asking him to return periodically. Mr. Dobbs is a great American, and CNN is lesser for losing him."
Mary Garatti
Willits, CA

"There is only one word to describe Mr. Dobbs: class. It would have been very easy for him to throw CNN under the bus on a competing network."
Justin Scheinholtz
Newark, DE

"Wouldn't it be a thing of wonder if some of our gutless politicians had the courage of Lou Dobbs to step up to the plate and deal with the illegal immigration problem?"
Dwight Schwab, Jr.
Belmont, CA

"Lou Dobbs is the only reason I ever watched CNN. Now I look forward to seeing him on the Factor."
John McCorkle
Thomasville, NC

TERROR ON TRIAL
Judge Napolitano defends the Obama administration's decision to try 9/11 mastermind and others in NYC civilian courts.

"The Constitution intended us to be a nation of laws, not of individual opinion. Judge Napolitano is legally correct."
Barbara Saifman
Painesville, OH

"The judge is wrong to say our Constitution applies to a foreigner. KSM was not invited here, and therefore has no claim to these privileges."
Wesley Southerland
Dover, AR

"The judge's position is that a military tribunal can only be used if war is declared. I think a better measure is if the U.S. has to deploy its armed forces."
David Tortora
Carmel, IN

"Judge Napolitano stated that we are not at war with the terrorists because they're not part of a government. But the British were at war with the IRA."
Rev. Michael Brady
Whittier, CA

"We are at war with al Qaeda because, whether we like it or not, al Qaeda declared war on us on 9/11."
Paul Boquet
New Orleans, LA

FEAR FACTOR
Why does the liberal media continue to hammer Sarah Palin, even after she's left the political stage and is selling a book?

"If Sarah Palin is so unqualified for higher office, why does the establishment fear her?"
David Wilson
Loretto, TN

"Is Newsweek so broke it can't afford a disposable camera to take its own, more appropriate photo of Sarah Palin?"
Bill Spidahl
Spokane, WA

"What liberals hate about Mrs. Palin is that she's a conservative, normal American woman who is quite happy. That's the ultimate insult to liberalism."
Mary McLemore
Pike Road, AL

"Sarah Palin resonates with the common folk. The left attacks her because of her potential to succeed."
Michael Imbrunetti
Stockton, CA

"The lamestream media despises Palin because she doesn't come from their elite lineage. She's just a plain Jane making headlines."
Pat Corbat
Avilla, IN

"Liberals are scared to death of Sarah Palin. They hate middle America, and that's exactly who she represents."
Eugene Leigh
Baton Rouge, LA

"She's ordinary, so she can't possibly be worthy in the minds of the intellectual elites."
Van Atkins
Pahrump, NV

"In my opinion, some people feel Sarah Palin is a pretender, trying to be something she is not. She's pretending she's ready for the majors."
John Tatura
Victoria, Australia

MEET THE EMPEROR!
Months after causing controversy by bowing to the Saudi King, President Obama is back at it, bowing to the Emperor of Japan during his Asian trip.

"If the Japanese took vitamins to grow taller, President Obama's bows wouldn't be so noticeable."
Barbara Fleming
Hershey, PA

"I have no problem with Obama bowing to world leaders, as long as he doesn't hold the office of President of the United States."
Abel Flores
Houston, TX

"President Obama bowed to the Emperor of Japan to apologize for Hiroshima and Nagasaki."
Lorraine Steadman
Mansfield, MA

"Obama's bowing was a deliberate thumbing of his nose at his American critics. His constant display of arrogance illustrates he believes he is beneath no one."
Keith Mouser
Bountiful, UT

"Obama bowed in Japan? Never! He was obviously checking to see if his shoe lace was tied."
Paul Sandvick
Racine, WI

"The administration was trying to claim bowing is custom, but it is not. What an embarrassment to this country."
Jim Bergeron
Divide, CO

"A possible reason for President Obama's elaborate bow to the Japanese Emperor may have been a tactical desire to balance out his bow to the Saudi King."
John Reid
Dublin, Ireland

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-11-16T19:45:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was up just under a full point to 4.97 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 4.20 out of 10. Keep that upward trend going this week!

Go: This week's O'Quiz

Viewer Mail for Friday, November 13

2009-11-14T01:43:00Z

TERROR ON TRIAL
Attorney General Eric Holder announces that 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four other al Qaeda thugs will be tried in New York City in civilian courts.

"The public trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will do great damage to the U.S. I'd rather they just take him back to Afghanistan and let him go."
Steve Denny
Meadow Vista, CA

"Now that he has the same rights as all U.S. citizens, don't be surprised if KSM's charges are thrown out based on a coerced confession. If that happens, they'll be great political consequences for President Obama."
Jeff Kitto
Bozeman, MT

"Every news minute devoted to the trial circus is a news minute diverted away from getting the truth out about health care, cap and trade, immigration, etc."
Ron Frey
Delanson, NY

"This trial should be under federal jurisdiction. It wasn't just New York City that was targeted."
Ted Peluso
Arlington, MA

"This is pure madness! With that kind of logic, our military will have to be trained on how to properly Mirandize enemy soldiers on the battlefield."
Joe Mussoline
Mt. Dora, FL

"I'm so worried about KSM. We're not doing enough for this poor chap. Can't we put him up at the Waldorf with some down pillows?"
Ellen Carmichael
Scottsdale, AZ

"As a New Yorker who lives six blocks away from the World Trade Center, I want to see this terrorist tried not in a secret military court but publicly by New Yorkers."
Virginia Stewart
New York, NY

"Any presiding judge's life will be at risk, before, during and after the trials."
Pat Grainger
Cottage Grove, WI

"Bringing Gitmo prisoners to the U.S. for trial shows that the Obama administration is interested in feeding the trial lawyers at the expense of the taxpayers and the safety of this nation."
Tom Hoesly
Creston, NE

"I'm disappointed that Geraldo is so wrapped up in his liberal ideology that he is willing to hurt the families of the 9/11 victims or possibly put New York at further risk."
Dave Robertson
Vernon, AL

"Nazis, like Hermann Goering, were tried by a military tribunal to show the Germans what justice really is. If it was good enough for the Nazis, why isn't it good enough for Islamic terrorists?"
John Lartz
Winnetka, IL

"Geraldo is letting his emotions override reason. Eric Holder's decision is yet another slap in the face of the American people by this administration."
John Chandler
Phoenix, AZ

"Someone needs to remind Geraldo to Hermann Goering faced death camp survivors at Nuremberg, something he would not have been able to do if he were tried in New York."
Henry Bailey
Gastonia, NC

"Conservative Americans want justice. Liberals want political correctness."
Wesley Southerland
Dover, AR

"The fact that this terrorist is going to have the same rights as you and I when he sets foot on American soil is an outrage."
Phil Grooms
Redmond, OR

"The liberal Congressmen proved your point: you said the KSM trial would be a circus and they launched into a diatribe about waterboarding."
Tol Williams
Macon, GA

"Have the Congressmen forgotten that Mohammed confessed to the 9/11 attacks?"
David Peterson
Middletown, OH

"Democrats do themselves no electoral favors by advocating a civilian trial for KSM. It may endear them to the very far left, but that is it."
Fred Schwartz
Burlington, NJ

"The tens of millions of dollars that will be spent on this trial will go to lining the pockets of trial attorneys. They'll be the only winners in this spectacle."
JC Lydon
Indialantic, FL

"The true danger of these trials is the precedence it establishes, granting Constitutional rights to non-citizens."
Michael Flanigam
Elgin, IL

BOLD FRESH TOUR
O'Reilly and Glenn Beck announce they'll be going on tour together. For details, please visit BoldFreshTour.com.

"Maybe you should get Glenn Beck the Hawaii chair for Christmas to help him get into shape for the tour."
Shawn Meyer
Petersburg, OH

"When you and Beck go on the road, it should be called the 'Arguing with the Bold Fresh Idiot' tour. It's only fair."
Kevin Sheerin
Chesapeake, VA

"You should have called it the BoldBeck tour. Why are you always picking on poor Glenn?"
Jo Lynn Greaves
San Bernardino, CA

"But when are you coming to California? My two favorite guys together and you're not coming out here?"
Robin Stevens
Rosamond, CA

Bold and Fresh Tour 2010

2009-11-14T01:40:00Z

It's time for the truth - straight up, whether you like it or not. Bill O'Reilly and Glenn Beck are teaming up and going on tour. Your town may never be the same.

Go: Bold and Fresh Tour Site

Sarah Palin invites Levi Johnston to Thanksgiving dinner

2009-11-14T01:19:00Z

We have the governor on next Thursday and Friday. I hope you check it out. It's going to be her best interview I think. I have lots of questions for her. She's never been on The Factor before. We're all looking forward to it. We'll sell her a lot of books.

But I don't care about Levi. I'm not going to ask Sarah Palin about it. I think it's stupid.

Of course this will be a big message board topic for you guys. I'll be monitoring the boards very very closely to see what you think of the interview.

Cindy Crawford targeted in extortion plot

2009-11-14T01:16:00Z

It just never ends. We don't know what happened here, but you can take it for granted that anybody who's famous or wealthy in America is a target. Bad things will happen to them. That is the downside of fame, there's no doubt about it.

Man kills his roommate over soccer argument

2009-11-14T01:14:00Z

The reason I'm mentioning this is because of Lou Dobbs. He's going to be on The Factor on Monday. He's getting all kinds of jazz because of his stand on criminal illegal aliens. I think these guys in Massachusetts might be illegals. We're checking it out. We'll have the story on Monday.

Report: RNC health care plan covered abortions

2009-11-14T01:11:00Z

The RNC is embarrassed about this. That's not good for the GOP. They're trying to figure out how to spin this, but it's just embarrassing for them.

This week's new crossword: P.C. Madness

2009-11-13T20:06:00Z

"Political correctness" is in the news, and is also the theme of this week's crossword. Play it online or print it out for the road.

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Bias at MSNBC, Fox is harmful, says Charles Gibson

2009-11-13T02:57:00Z

Charles doesn't really watch us. He's the guy who didn't know about the ACORN investigation. So I don't think he's doing a lot of Fox watching anyway.

We're not ideological except in our opinion programs, and Charles is never going to get that, because he doesn't want to get it. All the polls show that we have more Democrats watching us than MSNBC has watching them, so it's ridiculous. It never stops.

NBC prime time shows will push "green" message

2009-11-13T02:55:00Z

I say this is a good thing. A cleaner environment helps us all. If they want to put pro-environment messages into their shows, let them. Nobody watches their shows anyway, but it's a good sentiment.

Obama tops Forbes "Most Powerful People in the World" list

2009-11-13T02:47:00Z

I'm not on this list. Which is fine with me. Osama bin Laden is number 37? I think Osama bin Laden's dead, myself. I don't know why he's on the list. And Hugo Chavez is at 67? I know I'm more powerful than Hugo Chavez, but I don't care.

Ole Miss head wants fight song banned

2009-11-13T02:45:00Z

This is dumb. You're at a football game. You should play the fight song. If some drunk guy yells "the South will rise again" at the end of it, so what?

Chimp attack victim reveals her face on Oprah

2009-11-13T02:42:00Z

I saw the Oprah clip, but it's just too gruesome for me to put on the air. I feel so bad for that woman. If it were me I'd want to be dead. She's blind and mutilated -- she can still speak at least. I know it's a terrible story. And I covered it responsibly. But I just can't show this woman. It's too upsetting, particularly for children.

Viewer Mail for Thursday, November 12

2009-11-13T01:41:00Z

FORT HOOD PC COVERAGE
Why are so many in the American media hesitant to call Maj. Hasan's shooting spree a terrorist act?

"I just wonder what kind of therapy this Hasan guy was giving our American soldiers coming back from the battlefield."
Kathryn Buhrer
Belpre, KS

"Hasan is a terrorist! Many liberals weren't so hesitant to put the terrorist label on the man who murdered Dr. Tiller."
Ryan Krafft
Port Huron, MI

"Why aren't the people who are calling Hasan's act a crime, not tacking on the hate crime label? They'll do it for everything else."
Janice Childe
Modesto, CA

"If a mentally impaired person commits murder, he's still considered a murderer. The same should apply to an act of terrorism."
Gerry Brody
Jackson, NJ

"I'm worried. If this administration has trouble identifying Hasan as a terrorist, how will they protect us from future attacks?"
Steve Lindsoe
Kenner, LA

"The fact that the shooter is a Muslim man is inconvenient to the media and Obama administration. They would have preferred if he were a white Christian."
Carol Black
Hutchinson, KS

"The media won't label Hasan a terrorist because they don't want to admit Obama's actions have undermined the CIA and the intelligence community."
Marie Greene
Sandy, UT

"I very rarely hear any Muslim groups standing up and denouncing attacks in the name of Islam. That's why I have little respect for them."
Ben Modica
Staten Island, NY

"The question is not whether Hasan is a terrorist, but whether he was part of an organized terror group."
Jim Curry
San Diego, CA

"The media is a bunch of cowards, that's why they won't call Hasan a terrorist. So much for honest straightforward journalism."
Mark Feather
Edmond, OK

SELLING HEALTH CARE REFORM
Laura Ingraham wades into some controversy when she says Nancy Pelosi did everything except sell her body to pass the health care reform bill.

"It's a good thing for Ms. Pelosi's ego that she didn't try to sell her body for health care reform. Nobody would have taken her up on it."
Joe Viera
Glendale, AZ

"I'm a straight male. I would still rather sleep with Dennis Hastert than Nancy Pelosi."
Paul Amedee
Kenner, LA

"Nancy Pelosi did whatever it took to pass the health care bill. Unfortunately, it was for her to hoodwink the Republicans into passing the Stupak amendment."
Mark Phillips
Edgewater, MD

"She may not have sold her body, but she definitely sold her soul."
Marissa Guillory
Cypress, TX

"I only hope Speaker Pelosi gets all the attention she craves in the coverage of her handing the gavel over to a Republican in 2010."
Tom Brode
Bradenton, FL

"The people in Washington are doing a lot worse than selling their bodies to pass health care. They are selling this country down the toilet."
Ralph Duddles
Petersburg, AK

OFFENSIVE AD?
Carl's Jr. had to pull this ad after some Italian-American groups complained that it was ethnically insensitive.

"My wife is 100% pure Sicilian. She thought that commercial was hilarious."
John Geiger
Red Bluff, CA

"As a native of Italy, I was given the opportunity to prosper in the greatest country in the world. I laughed at the Carl's Jr. ad because I know all Americans, regardless of nationality, are awarded for hard work."
Fabrizio Balestri
San Diego, CA

"My husband and I are both Italian. We found the ad more jocose than offensive."
Joanne Maggio
Long Beach, CA

"As the son of Italian immigrants, I think Carl's Jr. got it right on the money!"
Andrew Vaccaro
Melbourne, Australia

"Would you be laughing if it were black men stereotyped in that ad instead of Italians?"
Jerome Biondolillo
Deerfield Beach, FL

MISCELLANEOUS
"This holiday season I plan on giving the gift of 'Bold Fresh' on each of the eight days of Hanukkah."
Gordon Kaplan
Astoria, NY

Bill's Latest Column: Terrorism or Tragedy?

2009-11-12T21:47:00Z

In his new column for this week, Bill explores President Obama's unwillingness to label the massacre at Fort Hood as terrorism.

Go: Bill's latest column

Salt Lake City event postponed

2009-11-12T18:46:00Z

Due to circumstances beyond their control and a recent outbreak of the flu amongst the organizers, the program originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14th featuring Bill O'Reilly at the Huntsman Center at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City is being postponed.

A new date will be announced shortly for 2010. The promoters wish to apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused.

Ticket holders should contact the University of Utah box office at 801-581-8849 (choose option 1) for refunds, or email Utah Tickets.

Vatican searching for signs of extra-terrestrial life

2009-11-12T02:28:00Z

I'm Catholic, and it would be pretty conceited for us to say that we're the only people around, that God just created us Earthlings, and everybody else is vapor. So I guess you've got to keep an open mind on it. And then if the Vatican finds these aliens, they'll convert them to Catholicism. It's a no-lose situation for the Pope.

Poll: Country is in a "funk"

2009-11-12T02:23:00Z

I really don't know what a funk means, but I don't think it's good. I think the American public is increasingly pessimistic. Again, the economy is shaky, terrorism is around, Afghanistan's not going well, we can't deal with Iran. There's a lot of bad things happening. And I look around for a win for Obama -- I don't know where it's going to come from. Health care's a mess. Even if he passes it, are you going to be jumping up and down in the street? I'm not. It could bankrupt the country. Nobody knows how that's going to play out.

Poll: GOP passes Democrats on 2010 generic ballot

2009-11-12T02:19:00Z

Gallup is a good organization. And now it shows a quick shift in the country from the Democratic side to the GOP. The economy is driving this, I think. People are nervous. Barack Obama, he's lost some of his mojo, some of his confidence. Voters still like him, but they're not real confident anymore and all the polls show that.

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, November 11

2009-11-12T01:39:00Z

WARNING SIGNS
Did the military ignore red flags when it came to the terrorist-sympathizer within their ranks?

"Fort Hood was a manmade disaster. It was manmade by President Obama, who has terrorized the intelligence community and military into inaction."
Glen Cook
Margate, FL

"Please don't call Mr. Hasan disturbed. He is a radical Islamic terrorist. He killed those people because his religion told him to."
Marlene McMillan
Portland, OR

"We have been taking our shoes off at airports and putting shampoo in little baggies, while Hasan gets a pass for his alarming behavior because he's a Muslim."
Geoff Hill
San Diego, CA

"You can't be a terrorist without being mentally insane first."
Ben Gentle
Pelham, AL

"Why didn't Major Hasan just leave the Army? The only explanation was for nefarious reasons."
Steve Berry, M.D.
Gainesville, GA

"Regarding Hasan, the Army chose tolerance over security."
Kathryn Iandoli
Wilmington, NC

"Dick Morris is wrong when he says Hasan's motivations were political, not religious. In Islam, there is no separation between church and state."
Tom Wilson
Springfield, OR

"If this had happened under a Republican president, the leftists would be wanting to tar and feather him. He would be toast."
Jean Jones
Spring, TX

"If a radical Christian soldier had behaved in the Army the way Hasan the radical Muslim did, he would be discharged in a New York minute."
Laura Smythe
Carrollton, TX

"You fail to acknowledge this was both a terrorist act and an act of a deranged individual. It doesn't need to be either-or."
Shawn Kelly
Oxnard, Ca

"Does Sally Quinn of the Washington Post acknowledge the sky is blue or does she say it might be blue? A terrorist is a terrorist."
Kristin Reed
Macon, MS

"Way to go! Sally Quinn simply couldn't argue with you on the facts as you presented them."
Marc Mangen
Palm Beach Gardens, FL

"Sally Quinn is suffering from the same disease as the military: political correctness run amok."
Carol Bruce
Jordan Valley, OR

"Ms. Quinn insists on looking through the telescope from the wrong end. Does she know any Islamic terrorists who aren't emotionally disturbed?"
Kenneth Filipski
Bakersfield, CA

"It was like pulling teeth to get Sally Quinn to admit Hasan was a terrorist."
Nancy Swartz
Liberty Township, OH

"Does Sally Quinn think labeling Hasan a terrorist is humorous or something? This guy was a cold-blooded killer: a crazy terrorist."
Gunnar Anderson
Bellevue, WA

"Ms. Quinn's inexplicable reluctance to admit the obvious fact that Hasan is a terrorist speaks volumes about the motivations of the left-wing media."
Brent George
Simi Valley, CA

NO SPIN INTERVIEW
Ralph Nader enters the no spin zone to promote his new book, but he seems reluctant to answer direct questions about Fort Hood and terrorism.

"You showed extreme patience with Ralph Nader when he avoided your questions in an adversarial way. I used to respect Mr. Nader, but he's rapidly becoming a pinhead."
Chip Snyder
Allentown, PA

"I believe Nader is wrong and you are capable of chewing gum and walking at the same time."
Dave Poirier
Taunton, MA

"Ralph Nader shouldn't be able to pick and choice what controversial topics he'll discuss. I voted for him once, but never again."
Jeremy Racca
Seattle, WA

"Ralph's solution to the jihad problem is obvious: he'd make them all drive Corvairs."
Bruce Neumann
Tampa, FL

"You guys are great to watch. You both have no problem getting right into it. Your exchange with Ralph Nader was fascinating."
Mark Davis
Canby, OR

CONTROVERSIAL REMARK
Pat Robertson says on the 700 Club that Islam is not a religion; it's a political ideology.

"I'm no Pat Robertson fan, but I agree with him on this one. No Muslim will refute the fact that the Koran calls for the death of infidels."
Sandy Brasili
Chester, VA

"In light of your criticism of Mr. Robertson, I would be very interested to hear how you would define Islam."
Vern Pollema
Bakersfield, CA

"Until the moderates start reporting the radical fringe elements of Islam, they are part of the problem."
Frank VanHaelst
Sanford, NC

New Backstage Conversation now online!

2009-11-12T00:41:00Z

Is there any chance we'll ever see a "Factor for Kids" program on Saturday mornings? Hear Bill's answer to this question, and many more, in this week's Backstage Conversation webcast.

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

Stratfor.com: Twenty Years After the Fall

2009-11-12T00:29:00Z

We are now at the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe. We are also nearing the 18th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union itself. This is more than simply a moment for reflection-it is a moment to consider the current state of the region and of Russia versus that whose passing we are now commemorating. To do that, we must re-examine why the Soviet empire collapsed, and the current status of the same forces that caused that collapse.

Russia's Two-Part Foundation
The Russian empire-both the Czarist and Communist versions-was a vast, multinational entity. At its greatest extent, it stretched into the heart of Central Europe; at other times, it was smaller. But it was always an empire whose constituent parts were diverse, hostile to each other and restless. Two things tied the empire together.

One was economic backwardness. Economic backwardness gave the constituent parts a single common characteristic and interest. None of them could effectively compete with the more dynamic economies of Western Europe and the rest of the world, but each could find a niche within the empire. Economic interests thus bound each part to the rest: They needed a wall to protect themselves from Western interests, and an arena in which their own economic interests, however stunted, could be protected. The empire provided that space and that opportunity.

The second thing tying the empire together was the power of the security apparatus. Where economic interest was insufficient to hold the constituent parts together, the apparatus held the structure together. In a vast empire with poor transportation and communication, the security apparatus-from Czarist times to the Soviet period-was the single unifying institution. It unified in the sense that it could compel what economic interest couldn't motivate. The most sophisticated part of the Russian state was the security services. They were provided with the resources they needed to control the empire, report status to the center and impose the center's decisions through terror, or more frequently, through the mere knowledge that terror would be the consequence of disobedience.

It was therefore no surprise that it was the security apparatus of the Soviet Union-the KGB under Yuri Andropov-which first recognized in the early 1980s that the Soviet Union's economy not only was slipping further and further behind the West, but that its internal cohesion was threatened because the economy was performing so poorly that the minimal needs of the constituent parts were no longer being fulfilled. In Andropov's mind, the imposition of even greater terror, like Josef Stalin had applied, would not solve the underlying problem. Thus, the two elements holding the Soviet Union together were no longer working. The self-enclosed economy was failing and the security apparatus could not hold the system together.

It is vital to remember that in Russia, domestic economic health and national power do not go hand in hand. Russia historically has had a dysfunctional economy. By contrast, its military power has always been disproportionately strong. During World War II, the Soviets crushed the Wehrmacht in spite of their extraordinary economic weakness. Later, during the Cold War, they challenged and sometimes even beat the United States despite an incomparably weaker economy. The Russian security apparatus made this possible. Russia could devote far more of its economy to military power than other countries could because Moscow could control its population successfully. It could impose far greater austerities than other countries could. Therefore, Russia was a major power in spite of its economic weakness. And this gave it room to maneuver in an unexpected way.

Andropov's Gamble
Andropov proposed a strategy he knew was risky, but which he saw as unavoidable. One element involved a dramatic restructuring of the Soviet economy and society to enhance efficiency. The second involved increased openness, not just domestically to facilitate innovation, but also in foreign affairs. Enclosure was no longer working: The Soviet Union needed foreign capital and investment to make restructuring work.

Andropov knew that the West, and particularly the United States, would not provide help so long as the Soviet Union threatened its geopolitical interests even if doing so would be economically profitable. For this opening to the West to work, the Soviet Union needed to reduce Cold War tensions dramatically. In effect, the Soviets needed to trade geopolitical interests to secure their economic interests. Since securing economic interests was essential for Communist Party survival, Andropov was proposing to follow the lead of Vladimir Lenin, another leader who sacrificed space for time. In the Brest-Litovsk Treaty that ended Russian participation in World War I, Lenin had conceded vast amounts of territory to Germany to buy time for the regime to consolidate itself. Andropov was suggesting the same thing.

It is essential to understand that Andropov was a Party man and a Chekist-a Communist and KGBer-through and through. He was not proposing the dismantling of the Party; rather, he sought to preserve the Party by executing a strategic retreat on the geopolitical front while the Soviet Union regained its economic balance. Undoubtedly he understood the risk that restructuring and openness would create enormous pressures at a time of economic hardship, possibly causing regime collapse under the strain. Andropov clearly thought the risk was worth running.

After Leonid Brezhnev died, Andropov took his place. He became ill almost immediately and died. He was replaced by Konstantin Chernenko, who died within a year. Then came Mikhail Gorbachev-the true heir to Andropov's thinking-who implemented Andropov's two principles. He pursued openness, or glasnost. He also pursued restructuring, or perestroika. He traded geopolitical interests, hard-won by the Red Army, for economic benefits. Contrary to his reputation in the West, Gorbachev was no liberal. He actually sought to preserve the Communist Party, and was prepared to restructure and open the system to do so.

As the security apparatus loosened its grip to facilitate openness and restructuring, the empire's underlying tensions quickly went on display. When unrest in East Germany threatened to undermine Soviet control, Gorbachev had to make a strategic decision. If he used military force to suppress the uprising, probably restructuring and certainly openness would be dead, and the crisis Andropov foresaw would be upon him. Following Lenin's principle, Gorbachev decided to trade space for time, and he accepted retreat from East Germany to maintain and strengthen his economic relations with the West.

After Gorbachev made that decision, the rest followed. If Germany were not to be defended, what would be defended? Applying his strategy rigorously, Gorbachev allowed the unwinding of the Eastern European empire without intervention. The decision he had made about Germany amounted to relinquishing most of Moscow's World War II gains. But if regime survival required it, the price had to be paid.

The Crisis
The crisis came very simply. The degree of restructuring required to prevent the Soviet Union's constituent republics from having an overarching interest in economic relations with the West rather than with Russia was enormous. There was no way to achieve it quickly. Given that the Soviet Union now had an official policy of ending its self-imposed enclosure, the apparent advantages to the constituent parts of protecting their economies from Western competition declined-and with them, the rationale for the Soviet Union. The security apparatus, the KGB, had been the engine driving glasnost and perestroika from the beginning; the advocates of the plan were not going to shift into reverse and suppress glasnost. But glasnost overwhelmed the system. The Soviet Union, unable to buy the time it needed to protect the Party, imploded. It broke apart into its constituent republics, and even parts of the Russian Federation seemed likely to break away.

What followed was liberalization only in the eyes of Westerners. It is easy to confuse liberalism with collapse, since both provide openness. But the former Soviet Union (FSU) wasn't liberalizing, it was collapsing in every sense. What remained administratively was the KGB, now without a mission. The KGB was the most sophisticated part of the Soviet apparatus, and its members were the best and brightest. As privatization went into action, absent clear rules or principles, KGB members had the knowledge and sophistication to take advantage of it. As individuals and in factions, they built structures and relationships to take advantage of privatization, forming the factions that dominated the FSU throughout the 1990s until today. It is not reasonable to refer to organized crime in Russia, because Russia was lawless. In fact, the law enforcement apparatus was at the forefront of exploiting the chaos. Organized crime, business and the KGB became interconnected, and frequently identical.

The 1990s were a catastrophic period for most Russians. The economy collapsed. Property was appropriated in a systematic looting of all of the former Russian republics, with Western interests also rushing in to do quick deals on tremendously favorable terms. The new economic interests crossed the new national borders. (It is important to bear in mind that the boundaries that had separated Soviet republics were very real.) The financial cartels, named for the oligarchs who putatively controlled them (control was much more complex; many oligarchs were front men for more powerful and discreet figures), spread beyond the borders of the countries in which they originated, although the Russian cartels spread the most effectively.

Had the West-more specifically the United States-wanted to finish Russia off, this was the time. Russia had no effective government, poverty was extraordinary, the army was broken and the KGB was in a civil war over property. Very little pressure could well have finished off the Russian Federation.

The Bush and Clinton administrations made a strategic decision to treat Russia as the successor regime of the FSU, however, and refused to destabilize it further. Washington played an aggressive role in expanding NATO, but it did not try to break up the Russian Federation for several reasons. First, it feared nuclear weapons would fall into the hands of dangerous factions. Second, it did not imagine that Russia could ever be a viable country again. And third, it believed that if Russia did become viable, it would be a liberal democracy. (The idea that liberal democracies never threaten other liberal democracies was implanted in American minds.) What later became known as a neoconservative doctrine actually lay at the heart of the Clinton administration's thinking.

Russia Regroups-and Faces the Same Crisis
Russia's heart was the security apparatus. Whether holding it together or tearing it apart, the KGB-renamed the FSB after the Soviet collapse-remained the single viable part of the Russian state. It was therefore logical that when it became essential to end the chaos, the FSB would be the one to end it. Vladimir Putin, whom the KGB trained during Andropov's tenure and who participated in the privatization frenzy in St. Petersburg, emerged as the force to recentralize Russia. The FSB realized that the Russian Federation itself faced collapse, and that excessive power had fallen out of its hands as FSB operatives had fought one another during the period of privatization.

Putin sought to restore the center in two ways. First, he worked to restore the central apparatus of the state. Second, he worked to strip power from oligarchs unaligned with the apparatus. It was a slow process, requiring infinite care so that the FSB not start tearing itself apart again, but Putin is a patient and careful man.

Putin realized that Andropov's gamble had failed catastrophically. He also knew that the process could not simply be reversed; there was no going back to the Soviet Union. At the same time, it was possible to go back to the basic principles of the Soviet Union. First, there could be a union of the region, bound together by both economic weakness and the advantage of natural resource collaboration. Second, there was the reality of a transnational intelligence apparatus that could both stabilize the region and create the infrastructure for military power. And third, there was the reversal of the policy of trading geopolitical interests for financial benefits from the West. Putin's view-and the average Russian's view-was that the financial benefits of the West were more harmful than beneficial.

By 2008, when Russia defeated America's ally, Georgia, in a war, the process of reassertion was well under way. Then, the financial crisis struck along with fluctuations in energy prices. The disparity between Russia's politico-military aspirations, its military capability and its economic structure re-emerged. The Russians once again faced their classic situation: If they abandoned geopolitical interests, they would be physically at risk. But if they pursued their geopolitical interests, they would need a military force capable of assuming the task. Expanding the military would make the public unhappy as it would see resources diverted from public consumption to military production, and this could only be managed by increasing the power of the state and the security apparatus to manage the unhappiness. But this still left the risk of a massive divergence between military and economic power that could not be bridged by repression. This risk re-created the situation that emerged in the 1970s, had to be dealt with in the 1980s and turned into chaos in the 1990s.

The current decisions the Russians face can only be understood in the context of events that transpired 20 years ago. The same issues are being played out, and the generation that now governs Russia was forged in that crucible. The Russian leadership is trying to balance the possible outcomes to find a solution. They cannot trade national security for promised economic benefits that may not materialize or may not be usable. And they cannot simply use the security apparatus to manage increased military spending-there are limits to that.

As a generation ago, Russia is caught between the things that it must do to survive in the short run and the things it cannot do if they are to survive in the long run. There is no permanent solution for Russia, and that is what makes it such an unpredictable player in the international system. The closest Russia has come to a stable solution to its strategic problem was under Ivan the Terrible and Stalin, and even those could not hold for more than a generation.

The West must understand that Russia is never at peace with itself internally, and is therefore constantly shifting its external relationships in an endless, spasmodic cycle. Things go along for awhile, and then suddenly change. We saw a massive change 20 years ago, but the forces that generated that change had built up quietly in the generation before. The generation since has been trying to pull the pieces back together. But in Russia, every solution is merely the preface to the next problem-something built into the Russian reality.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

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Viewer Mail for Tuesday, November 10

2009-11-11T01:37:00Z

FORT HOOD MEMORIAL
President Obama speaks at the ceremony honoring the victims of Fort Hood, but is his administration doing enough to speak out about the Muslim element in this tragedy?

"I wonder why nobody has mention this guy's objection to the war because he may have to kill Muslims. He obviously had no problem killing Americans."
Darlene Schibly
Ossian, IN

"Let me get this straight - the Army doesn't want gay Americans to join, but they have no problem with jihadists. What's going on here?"
Liz Collins
Holyoke, MA

"Which is more dangerous to this country - an administration which fails to identify an Islamic terror act or a politically-correct Army who won't admit it exists?"
Bo Dostal
Olathe, KS

"The silence of good, peace-loving Muslims is deafening. Why aren't imams speaking out against this atrocity?"
Kevin Lavelle
Secaucus, NJ

"That soldier would have been classified as a terrorist if he'd been a civilian. I'll settle for calling him a traitor and a murderer."
Dave Muth
St. Petersburg, FL

"The PC police and the ACLU have denigrated our right of free speech to the point that citizens can no longer trust that we are being protected from all enemies."
Kim Maginn
Little Rock, AR

"Political correctness has already taken our freedom to a large degree, and now it has taken our troops lives."
Jan Stewart
Cedar, MN

"The biggest issue is not the oversensitivity about the Muslim component of this story. What about the fact that the Obama administration failed to prevent a terrorist attack on the USA?"
John Schulte
Orlando, FL

"If Major Hasan was a white nationalist and not a Muslim, President Obama and the press would have no problem serving this murderer up on a silver platter."
Sean Nugent
Abingdon, MD

"If someone starts shouting Allah Akbar and opens fire on his fellow soldiers, we have a pretty strong clue as to the cause of the carnage."
Mary McLemore
Pike Road, AL

"If Hasan had been wearing a backpack filled with explosives, would Alan Colmes then believe it was a terrorist attack?"
Bob Erhart
Las Vegas, NV

"President Bush kept us safe for almost 8 years after 9/11. Yet 11 months into the Obama administration and we have a jihadist massacre on American soil."
Joseph Czermak
Ridgefield Park, NJ

"The Fort Hood shooting was an act of Islamic terror, even if the killer didn't have an al Qaeda button on his shirt."
Sue Scoggins
Grants Pass, OR

"It was not an act of war, it was a crime. The crime was treason, punishable by death."
Chris Fasano
Floral Park, NY

"If we don't treat this like a terror attack, we will have another 9/11 in the not so distant future. Anyone who can't see this is a pinhead who gives pinheads a bad name."
Dennis Haynes
Beaver, WV

"Kudos to Monica Crowley for shining a light on President Obama's shout-out moment after the Fort Hood tragedy. Someone needs to teach him to set priorities."
Cathy Grant
Houston, TX

"If a Christian were to say that all Muslims need to be converted or executed, they would no doubt be accused of inciting violence or some other hate crime. Why the double standard?"
Russ Yocum
Gulf Breeze, FL

"The left creates victims and forgives them anything. The Fort Hood coverage is a great example of this."
Mimi Ito
Boulder, CO

"Dennis Miller is right. When will good American Muslims stand up against radical terrorists? They are the key to defeating terrorism."
Allen Meadows
Buellton, CA

"Wake up America before it's too late. Miller has it exactly right."
Mary Syron
St. Louis, MO

TAX REVOLT
With tax hikes in a variety of states, will Americans rise up and demand the federal government lower taxes?

"There will definitely be a revolt against taxes. It will make the tea parties look like nothing."
Dawn Olmstead
Newark, DE

"People are being pushed to the limit. But we need somebody like you or John Stossel to lead the charge against high taxes."
Matt Brady
Phoenix, AZ

"How do I enlist in Gen. Stossel's tax revolt army?"
Mike Mahaffey
Austin, TX

POLITICAL POT-SHOT
Congressman Barney Frank's boyfriend is busted for growing marijuana in Maine. He tells a reporter he didn't know the plants were there because he doesn't know what marijuana looks like.

"It's sad that Barney Frank continues to get away with his shenanigans. We deserve more than this sort of representation in Washington."
Mary Syron
St. Louis, MO

"If I were Barney Frank's boyfriend, I would be smoking pot too. Lots of it!"
John Crow
Osterville, MA

"I have to believe Barney Frank when he says he didn't recognize marijuana plants. In fact, I don't think he has a clue about anything."
Joe Cole
Fort Wayne, IN

Illegal border crossings down 23% this quarter

2009-11-10T23:44:00Z

I told you way back when, when I was suggesting Pres. Bush build a border fence-he finally did, but it took him 6 years to start it-that it would stop a lot of the illegal crossings. Now, once again, we see a 23% drop in illegal crossings this quarter. They've been dropping ever since the fence went up, and they'll continue to drop. Yeah, you can jump the fence, but it's not easy. It's hard. The coyotes, the people who take the poor illegal immigrants across, are having a much harder time.

Am I a genius? No, I am not, but if you build a big fence, it's harder to get over it. It's harder to take pot over it, and it's harder to take heroin over it. I can't tell you how many people have said, "Oh, that's not going to stop them!" Well, yeah, it is, it has, and it will.

Obama weighing troop options for Afghanistan

2009-11-10T23:42:00Z

Obama is going to send more troops to Afghanistan, we just don't know how many. He's weighing five options, but I don't care. He just needs to get it done. The earliest that troops can get to Afghanistan is March, so you've really got to put the pedal to the metal here, I think.

Michelle Obama's favorability ratings down

2009-11-10T23:38:00Z

Michelle Obama's favorability poll numbers are down from 72% to 61%, though 61% is still very good. Why are the numbers falling? I think it's just because her husband's numbers are falling. Michelle hasn't done anything, and doesn't do anything. She goes out, she looks nice, she smiles, she waves, she doesn't say anything—she's a strong woman, and the White House kind of wants to keep her in the background.

Attorney General Holder to speak at CAIR event

2009-11-10T23:32:00Z

Attorney General Eric Holder is going to give a keynote speech next week to a Muslim group that includes the controversial group CAIR. The FBI cut formal contacts with CAIR because of the Holy Land Foundation which was funneling money to terrorists like Hamas.

There are two ways you can look at this—either Holder is reaching out, trying to get the American Muslim community involved in the country, or he's soft. I tend to think Attorney General Holder is soft. I've always thought he's soft, and I don't think he should be attorney general. I think you see it with the CIA investigation of the Black Panthers—they dropped a case against them in Philadelphia. I think he's soft; he's a political guy, not a law enforcement guy.

Viewer Mail for Monday, November 9

2009-11-10T01:36:00Z

FORT HOOD FOLLOWUP
"As a former Marine, I strongly believe it would be a patriotic gesture to honor those Army soldiers who were wounded and killed at Fort Hood with a Purple Heart."
Greg McGinty
South Plainfield, NJ

"I hope we don't become a casualty of diversity and that Obama's fear of jumping to conclusions doesn't prevent us from discovering the truth about this situation."
Sal Mauro
Flushing, NY

"Some in the media want us to believe Maj. Hasan just snapped. That's like suggesting 9/11 was due to pilot error."
Connie Schein

"Any military personnel who knew of Maj. Hasan's statements and disregarded them is in violation of the military rule to defend America against all enemies."
Ken Kasowitz
Brooklyn, NY

"What Maj. Hasan did was clearly terrorism. President Obama can't blame this one on President Bush."
Brian Patrick
Wilmington, DE

"If the Muslim shooter was a Christian, the left-wing would have no problem pointing out his religion."
Seon Ferguson
Canberra, Australia

"If indeed Hasan is a terrorist like he appears to be, why is everyone still referring to him with his military title? He was most certainly not an American soldier."
Jessica Allen
Emporia, VA

"Even before he pulled the trigger, Hasan had unfettered access to the minds of our soldiers as an Army psychiatrist. Heads need to roll for this one."
Paul Jenkins
Hammond, LA

"As a veteran, I'm appalled that the Army is more concerned about being politically correct than it is about protecting our brave soldiers."
Jill Stires
Indianapolis, IN

"I believe Maj. Hasan should be prosecuted under the newly passed hate crimes legislation. He appears to hate all Americans."
Cully Beasley
Merrimack, NH

"This is a terrorist attack and a hate crime. The latter hasn't been explored because apparently only white men can commit hate crimes."
Emery Feteke
Somerville, NJ

"Let's not be too hasty in criticizing the government for not removing Hasan immediately. Fruitful counter-intelligence operations take time."
Jim Mittica
Gonzales, LA

"We have become so politically correct that our media is more concerned about the stress of the shooter than the grief of the victims. The misplaced benevolence intended to portray the shooter as a victim too is despicable."
Bob Tryka
Smithtown, NY

TEACHABLE MOMENT
President Obama makes an example of his daughter's efforts to improve a bad grade in a speech about education. Did he do anything wrong?

"Poor Malia - she need not have her grades leaked by her dad. I'd be more interested in the President revealing his own educational history."
Mike Ayers
La Quinta, CA

"I see nothing wrong with the President making his daughter an example of the importance of education."
Jeffrey Sabatini
Redlands, CA

"Pastors often tell stories about their children to accentuate a point during a sermon. President Obama wasn't wrong to tell the story about his daughter, unless it was against her wishes."
Anthony Palagi
Texas Tech University

"It's not wise for the President to intentionally direct media attention towards his daughter, whatever the topic may be."
Bill Fidurski
Clark, NJ

"President Obama's daughter could teach Congress a thing or two. She read an entire chapter to improve her grades. Maybe they should read the entire health care bill."
Barry Heisey
Catonsville, MD

FOX NEWS PARODY
Saturday Night Live pokes some fun at Fox News anchors Greta Van Susteren and Shepard Smith, as well as a variety of contributors.

"The Fox News parody on SNL was hilarious. Now I think they should have you on to host the show one week."
Scott Clase
Winchester, CA

"Just another example of Fox News' success. SNL was using you for ratings."
Robert Walters
St. Johns, FL

"Maybe CNN will boost its ratings by airing a fact-check of the SNL skit of Fox News."
Chris Cusack
Silver Spring, MD

"Fox News should now do a parody of SNL comedians, perhaps on Red Eye."
Lynne Dunne
Staten Island, NY

"The reason SNL did a parody on Fox News is because nobody would have known who they were talking about if they did an MSNBC parody. They were picking on the popular kids."
Paul Ehrler
Newport, NC

20TH ANNIVERSARY
Reality check shows a clip of O'Reilly covering the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 for "Inside Edition."

"'Fess up! That wasn't you covering the Berlin Wall. That was Tom Hanks."
Sharon O'Brien-Lykins
Penn Valley, CA

"When you showed the clip of you at the Berlin Wall, my husband laughed and said he didn't know you were ever young."
Connie Thompson
Athens, OH

"You were very handsome back then. You even looked like a nice guy who would be easy to get along with. What changed you?"
Becky Beck
Washington Court House, OH

"Bill, you haven't aged a day since 1989!"
Joe Perticone
Nicasio, CA

"Was that good-looking young man with the hair you at the Berlin Wall? What happened?"
Jim Madison
Newport Beach, CA

White House scolds Democratic consultant for Fox News appearance

2009-11-10T00:42:00Z

The White House apparently threatened some Democratic consultant—this is according to the Los Angeles Times, though they don't name the guy. But I don't think they'd make it up. Apparently the consultant made an appearance on FOX, and the White House called him and said, "You'd better knock that off." I hope that's not true. If I find out that it is true, there's going to be trouble.

Iran charges hikers with espionage

2009-11-10T00:36:00Z

The Iran situation is heating up—they've charged three backpackers, if you can believe it. They wandered into Iran from Turkey, and now they're charged with espionage, which is a capital crime in Iran, and they could be executed. It's the same old thumb-in-the-eye business that the Iranians have been doing for 25 years, so Barack Obama's got a real problem with these people, and this is the next big story. The economy is huge, obviously, but it looks like the capital markets are coming back—but Iran? It doesn't look like there's any good news over there, and the Israelis are itching to get at them. That could be the next war. If a war starts, the economy contracts, and we all suffer.

Push for gay marriage in New York, New Jersey

2009-11-10T00:35:00Z

There is some gay marriage controversy in New Jersey and New York... it's the same kind of thing as always—liberal people trying to introduce gay marriage into states where the population doesn't want it, so it winds its way through, and the legislature does this and that. I don't really care about gay marriage very much. I don't think it has a great influence on your life or my life.

I do want every American to pursue happiness on an equal basis, but I don't think you have to change the definition of marriage. I think you can give gays and other people who have alternative lifestyles the same kind of economic rights as straights have, and you solve the problem. For them, you don't—they want equal recognition, I understand that, but I think the greater good is served by keeping a tradition that is accepted by most Americans. I think the greater good has to prevail here.

Bill to appear in Salt Lake City, Utah

2009-11-09T23:54:00Z

Bill will be speaking at the University of Utah's Huntsman Center on Saturday, November 14. Tickets are available now!

Go: Upcoming Appearances

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-11-09T22:32:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was down alarmingly to 4.20 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 5.16 out of 10. Ouch! Try and turn it around this week!

Go: This week's O'Quiz

N.J. Court Says Americans Have No Right To Buy Handguns

2009-11-07T01:53:00Z

That will be overturned. It's obvious in the Constitution -- Americans do have the right. That's why the 2nd Amendment is there. These pinhead judges.

Wal-Mart accused of leaving employees susceptible to H1N1

2009-11-07T01:50:00Z

If you go to Wal-Mart and people are coughing, run the other way. A lot people get paid for sick days, but Wal-Mart says no. I don't know why that is. We'll look into it.

Unemployment hits 10.2%

2009-11-07T01:42:00Z

Obama's got a problem. The stock market continues to be okay, but people aren't working.

Laid off worker goes on shooting spree at former company

2009-11-07T01:39:00Z

This was a copycat killing down there in Florida--this happens, you know? Nuts are loosened up by exposure. It's horrible.

Meanwhile, the media's running wild trying to lay the Fort Hood shooting on US foreign policy in Afghanistan and Iraq. I think that's wrong, but it's predictable. It's what always happens.

Viewer Mail for Friday, November 6

2009-11-07T01:35:00Z

FORT HOOD REACTION
Factor viewers react to the shooting at an Army base at Fort Hood, Texas, where 13 people were killed an American-Muslim Major.

"The Fort Hood shooter was clearly motivated by religion. That doesn't mean all Muslims are bad, but it does shed some light on this guy's intent."
Stan Crader
Marble Hill, MO

"I watched Fox for Fort Hood coverage because the other networks were insanely, irresponsibly politically correct in their coverage."
Jim Cyr
Caribou, ME

"The day after the tragic event, Congress was talking about how to prevent this from happening again. We don't need the government involved in everything."
Tim Schiff
Dublin, OH

"I can't believe President Obama didn't immediately go to Fort Hood to console the victims. Texas is a much more important trip than Asia."
Natalie Miller
Plymouth, MN

"What's next from the blame-stream media: blaming pre-traumatic stress disorder for Hasan's rampage?"
Kent Malinowski
Jupiter, FL

"The mainstream media is blind to the things it doesn't want to see. Their Fort Hood coverage is a perfect example."
Ivan Corneille
Queens, NY

"Obama is cautioning Americans not to rush to judgment in the Fort Hood situation? Yet he rushed to judgment in the Cambridge cop situation. How many times will he be on the wrong side?"
Claire Hughes
Tolland, CT

"Although I'm sure thousands of Muslim Americans serve in the military with honor, they have also become a protected class. The Army has a lot of explaining to do here."
Diane Powers
Centreville, VA

"The Muslim murderer at Fort Hood is a terrorist. He was killing infidels, period."
Lynn Griffith
Attica, NY

"We better wake up to the reality of the Islamic threat. Otherwise, our attempts at political correctness will cost us more innocent lives."
Curtis Golm
Salem, WI

"This is an atrocity and the Obama administration must categorize it as a terrorist attack. I pray for the victims."
Judy Stromme
Destrehan, LA

"I'm the wife of a Ft. Hood soldier. I want to thank you for reporting the real story when it comes to this tragedy."
Brooke Gladwin
Fort Hood, TX

"The Major was a loser and a traitor. He committed an act of war."
Sam Thompson
Tucson, AZ

"The minority class in this country, with the help of President Obama, is seeking to change our heritage, our culture and our rule of law."
Betty Kropack
Templestowe, Australia

"You are right on! Hasan was either a terrorist or a crazy guy. Perhaps both."
Carter Schuld
Granbury, TX

"Obama doesn't want us to jump to conclusions when a Muslim kills a dozen Americans? What if an American had killed a dozen Muslims?"
Barry Cottrell
Montgomery, TX

IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin is about to release her memoir. She's a fascinating political figure in this country, and her book is sure to be a major best-seller.

"Are we going to have a Palin push every night on Fox? Let it go."
Peter Gazzara
Reading, MA

"Sarah Palin not qualified to be President? You've got to be kidding! Obama set the bar so low you could pick the next President out of the phone book at random."
Alexandra Mark
Newport, RI

"Sarah Palin already has my vote in 2012."
Rick Morrow
Phoenix, AZ

"Compared to the current administration in the White House, Sarah Palin is overqualified for the presidency."
Leonard Rescek
Hamilton, OH

MISCELLANEOUS
"I am a bold fresh mom, pregnant with my fifth child. You should have Factor maternity gear!"
Heather Chapman
Stevensville, MI

"I hate to read, but my wife is pestering me to read 'Bold Fresh.'"
Gary Childress
Trussville, AL

This week's new crossword: The Gold Standard

2009-11-06T21:39:00Z

With the price of gold near an all-time high, our crossword pays tribute to that ever-more-precious metal. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Viewer Mail for Thursday, November 5

2009-11-06T01:07:00Z

TEAR DOWN THAT WALL!
Monica Crowley is upset that President Obama won't be speaking at the Berlin Wall ceremony. Alan Colmes thinks he's doing the right thing.

"Watching Alan Colmes debate Monica Crowley is like watching an unarmed man in a gunfight."
Mary Ann Spadafore
Shinnston, WV

"Would you please ask Colmes why the heck our image around the world is more important than the well-being of our country? I couldn't care less what these other countries think of us."
Ron Fillmore
Centerville, TX

"Why is President Obama not going to the Bradenburg Gate? Chancellor Merkel wouldn't let him speak there in 2008 so why should he go now?"
Tony Cosentino
Mobile, AL

"Message to Alan Colmes: As a conservative, I don't get upset when President Obama travels outside the country. I get upset when he comes back."
Ron Bella
Centennial, CO

CHRISTMAS IN KENTUCKY
A change of heart in Kentucky as the Governor there decides the state Christmas tree can still be called a Christmas tree after all! Victory for the Factor!

"I don't get people. If you have a problem with Christmas, don't celebrate it."
Justin Louderbeck
Tulsa, OK

"Strange all these people that have a problem with Christmas don't seem to have a problem getting a paid holiday off or Christmas bonuses."
Mark Yax
Solon, OH

"The folks should decide. We live in a democracy, so let's put the issue of Christmas displays on the ballot."
Mike Rapini
Hemlock, MI

"We Kentuckians are traditionalists. We tend to cling to our guns, our religion, and yes, our Christmas trees. Thanks for sticking up for us."
Gretchen Dolen
Monticello, KY

"Soon I'll begin my Christmas shopping, not my holiday shopping. I'll spend money in establishments that wish me a Merry Christmas, and nowhere else."
Eddie Hernandez
San Bernardino, CA

"I'm an atheist, but I'm not offended by Christmas trees on public property. Our Founding Fathers didn't want our government to be guided by religious beliefs, but a Christmas display is harmless."
Mike Marler
Crescent City, CA

"Christmas has become a traditional holiday. I'm a militant atheist, but I couldn't care less what the tree is called. It's a time for me to spend with my family and friends."
Darren Starck
Dorchester, England

VERMONT: OUT OF CONTROL
A Factor investigation into the stunning lack of punishment for child sex predators in the state of Vermont. And why doesn't the local media defend the children?

"As a grandmother of two young girls, Vermont is the last place I'd take them on a vacation. Unfortunately, it's such a beautiful state, the loss is ours."
Nancy Wood
Springfield, MO

"As a Vermonter, I'm ashamed and embarrassed of the judges who support lenient sentences on men who sexually abuse kids. It's an absolute disgrace to our justice system."
Mike Daly
Burlington, VT

"My husband and I moved to Vermont 15 years ago, and it was not like this. Now Vermont judges catch and release for every offense."
Christine Fayette
West Dover, VT

"Perhaps their thinking is swayed by the maple syrup. It's very sweet."
John Altobello
Nevada

"Not all Vermonters agree with the lenient treatment of disgusting child predators. We want our children protected and cherished."
Anthony O'Rourke
Williston, VT

"Are judges in Vermont so insane they'll put the welfare of predators above the welfare of children? How could the people of that state allow this to happen?"
Richard Tyree
Lake Havasu City, AZ

SESAME SMACKDOWN!
Sesame Street takes a shot at Fox News.

"Oscar the grouch was a notable curmudgeon. Now he is just a pinhead!"
Oscar Frisbey
El Paso, TX

"I was disappointed in the Sesame Street jab at Fox News. My children will never watch that show again."
Mike Wren
Eagle Mountain, UT

"Sesame Street must have meant Fox News is trashy in a good way."
Amanda Bridgeford
Logan Township, NJ

"Sesame Street insulting Fox is despicable. That sort of stuff has no place in a show for children."
Kimberly Dumlao
La Puente, CA

"I thought you were Oscar the grouch!"
John Kramer
Schaumburg, IL

Illinois judge orders delay on new abortion-restricting law

2009-11-06T01:04:00Z

This is another crazy Cook county judge, Daniel Riley. The American Civil Liberties Union is trying to block it--they don't want parents to know if their daughters have abortions. It's so ridiculous. You've got to understand that there's always a court option in these things. If the child believes she's going to be abused or something bad is going to happen, she can go to a court and get an order whereby she can have the abortion without a parental notification. That's always in play. But the ACLU wants the kids to do whatever they want and the parents not to know about it, and it's just unbelievable. And Americans should be angrier than they are.

Gays blame Obama for failure of Maine marriage law

2009-11-06T01:01:00Z

I don't think this was Obama's fault--I don't believe any of that. Actually, I think if the president engaged on the issue, they would have lost by a bigger margin. I don't think Barack Obama is driving any votes right now.

Report: 700 Million People Want to Relocate to Another Country

2009-11-06T00:46:00Z

30 million people want to move to Saudi Arabia? Why? Why would you want to do that? Who are these people? Only 25 million want to move to Australia, which is a great place to go. 30 million want to go to Saudi Arabia, which is sand and 140° and you get your head chopped off if you look sideways--I'm not getting it. But we all know the United States is the best country, and the most people want to live here.

Bill's Latest Column: Visiting the White House

2009-11-05T21:55:00Z

In his new column for this week, Bill examines the recently released White House visitors log and ruminates on what each of the entries might mean.

Go: Bill's latest column

No Spin News is here!

2009-11-05T02:21:00Z

Premium Members now get Bill's take on news stories you won't see on the Factor--it's No Spin News, and it's here now!

Go: No Spin News

Controversial Louisiana Justice of the peace resigns

2009-11-05T01:09:00Z

Good riddance--you can't be doing that stuff. All men are created equal... remember that, Mr. Bardwell? The Declaration of Independence? Read it, live it and know it.

Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin named co-hosts of 2010 Oscars

2009-11-05T01:04:00Z

You don't care about Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin hosting the Oscars. I certainly don't!

Iranian supreme leader rejects US diplomacy

2009-11-05T00:57:00Z

These guys in Iran--we're going to have to hit them, I'm afraid. I don't want to, as I think it will be bad for the world. But I don't see any other way--they're going to have to get hit. There were demonstrations Saturday in Iran, and you've got to keep feeding that fire. So maybe the people could overthrow these people, but they've got a big secret police over there... they're going to have to get hit.

Maine Gay Marriage Law Repealed by Voters

2009-11-05T00:47:00Z

I'm surprised--I thought this would pass in Maine. Maine's a state where people don't like government intruding on anything, so if you want to get married, you get married... you want to marry a lobster, go ahead. That's the Mainer philosophy--I spent a lot of time up there. But I think the Mainers said, "Hey, you're not going to tell us what the definition of marriage is." I think that's what it was. "You pinheads in the legislature, up there in Bangor... don't be telling us this stuff! We'll vote on it!" 53% to 47%? That's pretty big. It couldn't be a religious vote, as Maine's not a big religious state.

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, November 4

2009-11-04T23:10:00Z

ELECTION FALLOUT
What do the Republican victories say about the American voters' current opinion of the Obama administration?

"You don't get it. We, in New Jersey, voted out Jon Corzine. It had nothing to do with President Obama."
Karin Roy
Manalapan, NJ

"Neither candidate in New Jersey was attractive. I voted for Christie to send a message to Washington, end of story."
Jane Racko
Bayville, NJ

"Obama couldn't elevate the Democrats for whom he was campaigning. That doesn't mean Americans didn't consider his policies when voting."
Jeff Rowan
Connellsville, PA

"The changing of governors in New Jersey was not just about Corzine, nor was it just about Obama. It was about both of them."
Michael Raimondi
Trenton, NJ

"The notion that election results in Virginia and New Jersey only reflect on the local government is wrong."
Chris Lilienthal
Brighton, MI

"The referendum on President Obama was evidenced by the people who chose not to vote in Virginia and New Jersey this year."
Steve Hutcherson
Richmond, VA

ADVISOR O'REILLY?
Talking Points thinks the Obama administration should hire Bill as the President's top advisor.

"Senior advisor? I'd rather have you as President. You'd bring a new sense of accountability, morality, responsibility and leadership to the White House."
Audra Warner
Lancaster, PA

"You said if you were picked as President Obama's top advisor you would bring common sense to the White House. I think that would automatically disqualify you from the job."
Ken Prochnow
Campbellsport, WI

"Americans are angry at the government for not listening to us. We're really angry! We're trying to make it clear that we want the massive spending to stop."
Kathy Perez
Mena, AR

"We the people are not afraid that Washington can't get anything done. We're appalled at what they're trying to get done."
Chaz Bosarge
Clinton, MS

"We distrust Washington because they won't leave us alone!"
David Dawson
Greenville, TX

BODY LANGUAGE
Bill appears on the Halloween edition of 'The View' and has it out with Whoopi Goldberg when he teases her that she's jealous of the success of 'Bold Fresh.'

"Whoopi Goldberg's body language was reprehensible when you were on 'The View.' Her disdain was evident in the way she recoiled from you."
Scott Carey
Tampa, FL

"You obviously have a bone to pick with Whoopi. Why not get her on your show and have it out, no spin style?"
John Turnbull
Holtville, CA

"You know I love you, but I have to agree with Whoopi. There's no way she would be jealous of you. Whoopi has been Whoopi for longer than the Factor has been the Factor."
Glen Barbour
Fairfax, VA

"How come you dressed up for Halloween on 'The View' and the ladies just wore their regular witch costumes?"
John Thomas
Windermere, FL

"Tonya Reiman was wrong if she thought Whoopi Goldberg was just playfully upset with you. Goldberg was really ticked off!"
Gary Cheezig
Edina, MN

MILLER TIME
The D-man takes on Nancy Pelosi for saying election night was a win for the Democrats. What was she thinking?

"Why do I get the impression Miller doesn't care for Nancy Pelosi?"
Chuck Waldron
Lakeland, FL

"I disagree with Miller. This country's third in command is not a certified buffoon, she only comes off as one because her life is completely run by emotion."
Butch Higley
Marianna, FL

"Miller is right about Pelosi being empty and vapid. The longer she's in office, the more robotic she becomes."
Susan Joy Durovey-Tuley
Shamrock Lakes, IN

"The only thing Nancy Pelosi's comment proves is that she's living in the land of Oz and doesn't have a staff who can do research for her."
Owen Miller
Lebanon, OR

"I agree with Dennis Miller about Pelosi. Every time I see her, I get the same feeling of disgust I got when I saw Richard Nixon."
Tom Monfort
Columbus, GA

MISCELLANEOUS
"I know this is sappy, but you're the most positive influence on my life. You are making me a better person by your example."
Todd Morris
Hemet, CA

"You should become the Common Sense Czar for the Obama administration!"
Cliff Conti
Paramus, NJ

"Bill, don't be a wisenheimer."
Chris Topple
Oshawa, Canada

Support the Archdiocese for the Military Services

2009-11-04T19:08:00Z

If you're looking for a good cause to contribute to, consider supporting the Archdiocese for the Military Services, USA as they plan their first annual benefit dinner. For more information, visit http://www.milarch.org/event.

Stratfor.com: Obama and the U.S. Strategy of Buying Time

2009-11-04T00:47:00Z

Making sense of U.S. President Barack Obama's strategy at this moment is difficult. Not only is it a work in progress, but the pending decisions he has to make-on Iran, Afghanistan and Russia-tend to obscure underlying strategy. It is easy to confuse inaction with a lack of strategy. Of course, there may well be a lack of strategic thinking, but that does not mean there is a lack of strategy.

Strategy, as we have argued, is less a matter of choice than a matter of reality imposing itself on presidents. Former U.S. President George W. Bush, for example, rarely had a chance to make strategy. He was caught in a whirlwind after only nine months in office and spent the rest of his presidency responding to events, making choices from a menu of very bad options. Similarly, Obama came into office with a preset menu of limited choices. He seems to be fighting to create new choices, not liking what is on the menu. He may succeed. But it is important to understand the overwhelming forces that shape his choices and to understand the degree to which whatever he chooses is embedded in U.S. grand strategy, a strategy imposed by geopolitical reality.

Empires and Grand Strategy
American grand strategy, as we have argued, is essentially that of the British Empire, save at a global rather than a regional level. The British sought to protect their national security by encouraging Continental powers to engage in land-based conflict, thereby reducing resources available for building a navy. That guaranteed that Britain's core interest, the security of the homeland and sea-lane control, remained intact. Achieving this made the United Kingdom an economic power in the 19th century by sparing it the destruction of war and allowing it to control the patterns of international maritime trade.

On occasion, when the balance of power in Europe tilted toward one side or another, Britain intervened on the Continent with political influence where possible, direct aid when necessary or-when all else failed-the smallest possible direct military intervention. The United Kingdom's preferred strategy consisted of imposing a blockade-e.g., economic sanctions-allowing it to cause pain without incurring costs.

At the same time that it pursued this European policy, London was building a global empire. Here again, the British employed a balance-of-power strategy. In looking at the history of India or Africa during the 19th century, there is a consistent pattern of the United Kingdom forming alliances with factions, whether religious or ethnic groups, to create opportunities for domination. In the end, this was not substantially different from ancient Rome's grand strategy. Rome also ruled indirectly through much of its empire, controlling Mediterranean sea-lanes, but allying with local forces to govern; observing Roman strategy in Egypt is quite instructive in this regard.

Empires are not created by someone deciding one day to build one, or more precisely, lasting empires are not. They emerge over time through a series of decisions having nothing to do with empire building, and frequently at the hands of people far more concerned with domestic issues than foreign policy. Paradoxically, leaders who consciously set out to build empires usually fail. Hitler is a prime example. His failure was that rather than ally with forces in the Soviet Union, he wished to govern directly, something that flowed from his ambitions for direct rule. Particularly at the beginning, the Roman and British empires were far less ambitious and far less conscious of where they were headed. They were primarily taking care of domestic affairs. They became involved in foreign policy as needed, following a strategy of controlling the seas while maintaining substantial ground forces able to prevail anywhere-but not everywhere at once-and a powerful alliance system based on supporting the ambitions of local powers against other local powers.

On the whole, the United States has no interest in empire, and indeed is averse to imperial adventures. Those who might have had explicit inclinations in this direction are mostly out of government, crushed by experience in Iraq. Iraq came in two parts. In the first part, from 2003 to 2007, the U.S. vision was one of direct rule relying on American sea-lane control and overwhelming Iraq with well-supplied American troops.

The results were unsatisfactory. The United States found itself arrayed against all Iraqi factions and wound up in a multipart war in which its forces were merely one faction arrayed against others. The Petraeus strategy to escape this trap was less an innovation in counterinsurgency than a classic British-Roman approach. Rather than attempting direct control of Iraq, Petraeus sought to manipulate the internal balance of power, aligning with Sunni forces against Shiite forces, i.e., allying with the weaker party at that moment against the stronger. The strategy did not yield the outcome that some Bush strategists dreamed of, but it might (with an emphasis on might) yield a useful outcome: a precariously balanced Iraq dependent on the United States to preserve its internal balance of power and national sovereignty against Iran.

Many Americans, perhaps even most, regret the U.S. intervention in Iraq. And there are many, again perhaps most, who view broader U.S. entanglement in the world as harmful to American interests. Similar views were expressed by Roman republicans and English nationalists who felt that protecting the homeland by controlling the sea was the best policy, while letting the rest of the world go its own way. But the Romans and the British lost that option when they achieved the key to their own national security: enough power to protect the homeland. Outsiders inevitably came to see that power as offensive, even though originally its possessors intended it as defensive. Indeed, intent aside, the capability for offensive power was there. So frequently, Rome and Britain threatened the interests of foreign powers simply by being there. Inevitably, both Rome and Britain became the targets of Hannibals and Napoleons, and they were both drawn into the world regardless of their original desires. In short, enough power to be secure is enough power to threaten others. Therefore, that perfect moment of national security always turns offensive, as the power to protect the homeland threatens the security of other countries.

A Question of Size
There are Obama supporters and opponents who also dream of the perfect balance: security for the United States achieved by not interfering in the affairs of others. They see foreign entanglements not as providing homeland security, but as generating threats to it. They do not understand that what they want, American prosperity without international risks, is by definition impossible. The U.S. economy is roughly 25 percent of the world's economy. The American military controls the seas, not all at the same time, but anywhere it wishes at any given time. The United States also controls outer space. It is impossible for the United States not to intrude on the affairs of most countries in the world simply by virtue of its daily operations. The United States is an elephant that affects the world simply by being in the same room with it. The only way to not be an elephant is to shrink in size, and whether the United States would ever want this aside, decreasing power is harder to do than it might appear-and much more painful.

Obama's challenge is managing U.S. power without decreasing its size and without imposing undue costs on it. This sounds like an attractive idea, but it ultimately won't work: The United States cannot be what it is without attracting hostile attention. For some of Obama's supporters, it is American behavior that generates hostility. Actually, it is America's presence-its very size-that intrudes on the world and generates hostility.

On the domestic front, the isolationist-internationalist divide in the United States has always been specious. Isolationists before World War II simply wanted to let the European balance of power manage itself. They wanted to buy time, but had no problem with intervening in China against Japan. The internationalists simply wanted to move from the first to the second stage, arguing that the first stage had failed. There was thus no argument in principle between them; there was simply a debate over how much time to give the process to see if it worked out. Both sides had the same strategy, but simply a different read of the moment. In retrospect, Franklin Roosevelt was right, but only because France collapsed in the face of the Nazi onslaught in a matter of weeks. That aside, the isolationist argument was quite rational.

Like that of Britain or Rome, U.S. grand strategy is driven by the sheer size of the national enterprise, a size achieved less through planning than by geography and history. Having arrived where it has, the United States has three layers to its strategy.

First, the United States must maintain the balance of power in various regions in the world. It does this by supporting a range of powers, usually the weaker against the stronger. Ideally, this balance of power maintains itself without American effort and yields relative stability. But stability is secondary to keeping local powers focused on each other rather than on the United States: Stability is a rhetorical device, not a goal. The real U.S. interest lies in weakening and undermining emergent powers so they don't ultimately rise to challenge American power. This is a strategy of nipping things in the bud.

Second, where emergent powers cannot be maintained through the regional balance of power, the United States has an interest in sharing the burden of containing it with other major powers. The United States will seek to use such coalitions either to intimidate the emerging power via economic power or, in extremis, via military power.
Third, where it is impossible to build a coalition to coerce emerging powers, the United States must decide either to live with the emerging power, forge an alliance with it, or attack it unilaterally.

Obama, as with any president, will first pursue the first layer of the strategy, using as little American power as possible and waiting as long as possible to see whether this works. The key here lies in not taking premature action that could prove more dangerous or costly than necessary. If that fails, his strategy is to create a coalition of powers to share the cost and risk. And only when that fails-which is a function of time and politics-will Obama turn to the third layer, which can range from simply living with the emerging power and making a suitable deal or crushing it militarily.

When al Qaeda attacked what it saw as the leading Christian power on Sept. 11, Bush found himself thrown into the third stage very rapidly. The second phase was illusory; sympathy aside, the quantity of military force allies could and would bring to bear was minimal. Even active allies like Britain and Australia couldn't bring decisive force to bear. Bush was forced into unilateralism not so much by the lack of will among allies as by their lack of power. His choice lay in creating chaos in the Islamic world and then forming alliances out of the debris, or trying to impose a direct solution through military force. He began with the second and shifted to the first.

Obama's Choices
Obama has more room to maneuver than Bush had. In the case of Iran, no regional solution is possible. Israel can only barely reach into the region, and while its air force might suffice to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, and air attacks might be sufficient to destroy them, Israel could not deal with the Iranian response of mining the Strait of Hormuz and/or destabilizing Iraq. The United States must absorb these blows.

Therefore, Obama has tried to build an anti-Iranian coalition to intimidate Tehran. Given the Russian and Chinese positions, this seems to have failed, and Iran has not been intimidated. That leaves Obama with two possible paths. One is the path followed by Nixon in China: ally with Iran against Russian influence, accepting it as a nuclear power and dealing with it through a combination of political alignment and deterrence. The second option is dealing with Iran militarily.

His choice thus lies between entente or war. He is bluffing war in hopes of getting what he wants, in the meantime hoping that internal events in Iran may evolve in a way suitable to U.S. interests or that Russian economic hardship evolves into increased Russian dependence on the United States such that Washington can extract Russian concessions on Iran. Given the state of Iran's nuclear development, which is still not near a weapon, Obama is using time to try to head off the third stage.

In Afghanistan, where Obama is already in the third stage and where he is being urged to go deeper in, he is searching for a way to return to the first stage, wherein an indigenous coalition emerges that neutralizes Afghanistan through its own internal dynamic. Hence, Washington is negotiating with the Taliban, trying to strengthen various factions in Afghanistan and not quite committing to more force. Winter is coming in Afghanistan, and that is the quiet time in that conflict. Obama is clearly buying time.
In that sense, Obama's foreign policy is neither as alien as his critics would argue nor as original as his supporters argue. He is adhering to the basic logic of American grand strategy, minimizing risks over time while seeking ways to impose low-cost solutions. It differs from Bush's policies primarily in that Bush had events forced on him and spent his presidency trying to regain the initiative.

The interesting point from where we sit is not only how deeply embedded Obama is in U.S. grand strategy, but how deeply drawn he is into the unintended imperial enterprise that has dominated American foreign policy since the 1930s-an enterprise neither welcomed nor acknowledged by most Americans. Empires aren't planned, at least not successful empires, as Hitler and Napoleon learned to their regret. Empires happen as the result of the sheer reality of power. The elephant in the room cannot stop being an elephant, nor can the smaller animals ignore him. No matter how courteous the elephant, it is his power-his capabilities-not his intentions that matter.

Obama is now the elephant in the room. He has bought as much time as possible to make decisions, and he is being as amiable as possible to try to build as large a coalition as possible. But the coalition has neither the power nor appetite for the risks involved, so Obama will have to decide whether to live with Iran, form an alliance with Iran or go to war with Iran. In Afghanistan, he must decide whether he can recreate the balance of power by staying longer and whether this will be more effective by sending more troops, or whether it is time to begin withdrawal. In both cases, he can use the art of the bluff to shape the behavior of others, maybe.

He came into the presidency promising to be more amiable than Bush, something not difficult given the circumstances. He is now trying to convert amiability into a coalition, a much harder thing to do. In the end, he will have to make hard decisions. In American foreign policy, however, the ideal strategy is always to buy time so as to let the bribes, bluffs and threats do their work. Obama himself probably doesn't know what he will do; that will depend on circumstances. Letting events flow until they can no longer be tolerated is the essence of American grand strategy, a path Obama is following faithfully.

It should always be remembered that this long-standing American policy has frequently culminated in war, as with Wilson, Roosevelt, Truman, Johnson and Bush. It was Clinton's watchful waiting to see how things played out, after all, that allowed al Qaeda the time to build and strike. But this is not a criticism of Clinton-U.S. strategy is to trade time for risk. Over time, the risk might lead to war anyway, but then again, it might not. If war does come, American power is still decisive, if not in creating peace, then certainly in wreaking havoc upon rising powers. And that is the foundation of empire.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

Click here to take advantage of 50% OFF regular subscription rates - offered exclusively for BillOReilly.com readers.

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, November 3

2009-11-03T23:09:00Z

ELECTION NIGHT!
With key governor races in Virginia and New Jersey, and a hot battle for a House seat in upstate New York, will voters turn out against the Democratic party and President Obama?

"The election results are a clear indication of the country's growing skepticism towards President Obama. People are beginning to fear the vision he has for America."
Lee Bernardo
Lauderdale by the Sea, FL

"The Republican sweep last night was not the result of Obama-care. It was the result of his administration's egotistic and arrogant obsession with socialistic government control. 2010 will be a bloodbath for the liberals."
Larry McBride
Mt. Vernon, IL

"Of the three races last night, the only Democrat that won was the one Obama didn't stump for!"
Nancy Beyer
Houston, TX

"Does everything Obama touches turn to gold? No."
Ken Coleman
Schenectady, NY

"Obama was more concerned with the war in New Jersey than the one in Afghanistan."
Rev. John Gregorek
Satellite Beach, FL

"You are missing a huge point concerning the Republican wins in Virginia. An enormous military base is located in Norfolk, so a high number of military personnel and veterans live in Virginia."
Scott Ward
Bella Vista, AR

"No one mentioned the fact that Virginia Governor Tom Kaine, the chairman of the Democratic party, had no impact on the election. What does this say about the Democratic leadership?"
Brian Glass
Richmond, VA

"The Virginia election of Obama in 2008 was not a mandate for his radical policies. Rather, people were enthralled with the idea of electing the first black President."
Barbara Morin
Charlottesville, VA

"I predict Obama will throw the losing Democrats in NJ and VA under the bus in an attempt to wipe the political dust from his own shoulders."
Clint Loeffler
Colonial Beach, VA

"People do not have confidence in Barack Obama's performance as president. People don't think he can be trusted."
Jean Stephens
Colorado Springs, CO

"The margin of victory here was meant to send a message to our leaders: reign in spending, stop the socialistic policies and give Gen. McChrystal his troops."
Fred Ridgway
Quinton, VA

"If Doug Hoffman had won in NY, it would have been considered a referendum against Obama. So Bill Owens winning a seat held by Republicans for 150 years is certainly a referendum for the President."
Mary Wallace
Syracuse, NY

"A vote for a third party candidate is not a wasted vote. If Americans don't vote for the candidate they think will move the country in the right direction, we've lost what makes this a great country."
Nathan Hightman
Concord, NC

STOSSEL MATTERS
The Factor's newest contributor explains how the New York Times criticized him recently for speaking to a conservative gathering.

"My girlfriend thinks John Stossel is cute, so I have to hear about it whenever you pick on him. Please cut him some slack to promote harmony in my household."
Dave Powell
Dunedin, FL

"I love Mr. Stossel's frank style of reporting and the upfront nature of his work. I'm glad to see he's joined the Fox News team."
Michael Connerth
Clarksville, TN

"While at ABC News, John Stossel flew under the New York Times' radar. Now he comes to Fox and he's the devil incarnate? Welcome to smear central!"
Paul Roscelli
Redwood City, CA

MISCELLANEOUS
"While voting for the city's mayor today, my 6-year-old son told me to vote for Abraham Lincoln. He said he's heard he's a pretty good guy."
Sandra Rodriguez Barron
Milford, CT

Viewer Mail for Monday, November 2

2009-11-02T23:08:00Z

POLITICAL POTPOURRI
Rush Limbaugh says Mr. Obama is intentionally trying to sabotage the economy; and health care reform takes another step forward.

"Obama may not want the economy to completely fail, but he clearly wants to keep it in crisis to help get his radical agenda through."
Sam Jahnske
Chandler, AZ

"What Rush is saying is that Obama is purposely creating a crisis to use as an excuse for his government takeover. He did the same thing with the auto industry and banking."
Mark Etterling
West Chester, OH

"Limbaugh speaks only to the converted and changes few minds, but he teaches the converted how to convince others. This is the sign of a growing movement."
Clifford Andersen
Arvada, CO

"You said you doubted Limbaugh changes minds with his rhetoric. Au contraire. Many liberals call into his show thanking him for enlightening them."
Tom Burley
Alto, MI

"As a McCain Democrat, I despise the Rush Limbaughs on both sides. They divide the country."
Al Sams
Cocoa, FL

"I don't think President Obama cares about being re-elected. He can crush the economy in four years."
Charles Baier
Baltimore, MD

"We agree with you on the health care bill and we agree with Rush Limbaugh."
Joseph Fox
Lancaster, OH

"Brit Hume says the public nor members of Congress are ever able to understand proposed legislation. If he's correct, we're doomed."
Dick West
Washoe Valley, NV

"Neil Cavuto has more credibility on health care than most of your guests. Because of his financial success and medical history, he'll be footing the bill for Obama-care through higher taxes."
Teresa Belmonte
Bensenville, IL

"If the government steals from Medicare to pay for his health care plan, how can we trust them not to steal from health care to pay for some other ill-conceived plan?"
Ray Finley
Page, AZ

"The reason I oppose the health care bill is I can't find in the Constitution where it says the federal government should get involved in such activities."
Robert Megee
Plano, TX

"When the bureaucrats get down with it, the bill will be over 20,000 pages. To think this will help our health care system is ludicrous."
Larry Weaver
Dodge City, KS

"The pro-choice lobby should be screaming bloody murder over the government regulation of their bodies! Where are they?"
Becki Thompson
Forest City, IA

"Perhaps Mr. Obama's agenda doesn't include running for a second term. Could it be that passing health care to bankrupt this country is his entire agenda?"
Suann Patel
Puyallup, WA

"It's taking Nancy Pelosi 2,000 pages to give us a public option for 2% of Americans. It took the Founding Fathers 6 pages to give us the Constitution. What's wrong with this picture?"
Clair Staples
East Stroudsburg, PA

MORMON MUFFINS
Reality Check takes a look at a calendar of Mormon mothers posing provocatively. The calendar raises money for breast cancer awareness.

"For anyone to get upset about the way the Mormon Muffins are dressed in their calendar is absurd. They are raising a lot of money for a great cause."
Darold Schnell
Pyeongtaek, South Korea

"I'm a Mormon mother and I don't think the women who modeled for the calendar care much about raising money for breast cancer. They are silly women, being ridiculous and certainly not doing women any favors."
Brooke Nield
Cedar Hills, UT

"It annoys me that whenever Mormons make the news, it involves questionable behavior. The media never pays attention to the fact the LDS church is one of the world's leading charitable organizations."
MacKenzie Ware
Clovis, CA

"Why does reality check support Mormon women portraying themselves not conducive to their faith? Last time I checked, modesty and chastity were still a good thing."
Chris Brown
Provo, UT

"I'm a Mormon and won't be buying the calendar. My 2010 calendar will have pictures of my family, not someone else's wife in skimpy clothing."
Grant Brimhall
Orem, UT

MISCELLANEOUS
"I bet you a bold fresh piece of steak and lobster dinner that Obama is a radical. Americans have eaten here and choked before."
Tom Belanger
Amelia Island, FL

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-11-02T18:37:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score declined slightly to 5.16 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 5.34 out of 10. See how well you do this week!

Go: This week's O'Quiz

This week's new crossword: Mixing Baseball and Politics

2009-10-30T19:32:00Z

You don't have to follow baseball or the World Series to solve this week's clues ... but it certainly helps. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Viewer Mail for Thursday, October 29

2009-10-30T00:10:00Z

POLITICAL HOPE
As Sarah Palin is set to reemerge on the national stage, is there any politician who gives Glenn Beck hope for the future of this country?

"The big difference between Sarah Palin during the Gibson and Couric interviews is she was representing John McCain. On her book tour, she'll only be representing herself."
Jim Horton
Pollock Pines, CA

"If Palin runs for President on a third party ticket, she will guarantee Obama a second term. Don't encourage this."
Norm Jacob
Frisco, TX

"Sarah Palin has brains, charm, charisma, principles, values, beauty and experience. You nailed it in one word: she is fascinating."
Bob Bickmeyer
Troy, MI

"I used to be a huge Palin supporter while she was on the McCain ticket. But I feel like she let the people of Alaska down by resigning her governorship."
John Guerrieri
South Kingstown, RI

"She's probably not ready for prime time, but she is more qualified than our current President."
John Horgan
Ft. Myers, FL

"If Ms. Palin looks Americans in the eye and promises to clean up this country, I would give her my last dime, despite her party affiliation."
Eddie Oldham
Odenton, MD

"Rather than feeding the flames of the media frenzy, Sarah Palin has to learn to say 'no comment' if she wants to be a national political figure."
Shirley Hall
Sutton, AK

"I think Glenn Beck is correct when he says we'll have a third party ticket in the next election. My prediction is Palin/Lieberman."
Bob Hubbard
Los Angeles, CA

"A third party could win in 2012 if the Democrats and Republicans don't get their acts together."
Glenn Tuley
West Melbourne, FL

"I think Mike Huckabee is a breath of fresh air. We desperately need that in this country."
Forrest Sears
Yorktown, IN

DATE NIGHT CRITICISM
In an interview with the NYT magazine, President Obama says he was miffed by the criticism he got over taking his wife to dinner and a show in NYC.

"I think the President is being too sensitive. If you want to get under Barack Obama's skin, you don't need to dig very deep."
Patrick Zwenger
Bellevue, NE

"If the President doesn't want media coverage, he shouldn't have run for office in the biggest fishbowl in the world."
Stan Wiegand
Los Angeles, CA

"My husband didn't take me to a Broadway show until I was 67 years old. Should I be upset?"
Anita Pfister
Hutchinson, KS

"If the only promise President Obama has been able to keep is taking his wife on a date, it doesn't say much about the job he's doing."
Jaime Walker
Nesco, NJ

"Every couple needs date nights. Might I suggest a romantic candlelit dinner at the White House?"
Debbie Sweeney
Columbia, MD

"Maybe the President should show some sacrifice in his personal life because his policies are driving up unemployment."
Greg Gitke
Gillette, WY

"Do you really think it's appropriate to go to such extravagant lengths to spend time with your wife, especially in these economic times?"
Ann Kirol
Rock Hill, SC

"I have no problem with the President taking his wife out. But he's also wasting tax dollars on lavish parties at the White House. It's one or the other."
Linda Ritz
Wynantskill, NY

KILLED BY MUSLIM TERRORISTS?
That's the description the father of a 9/11 victim wants engraved on his son's local memorial. But town officials won't authorize it.

"I couldn't disagree with you more. Surely you don't want Native Americans putting 'killed by white occupiers' on all of their memorials."
Aaron Smith
Warren, PA

"The only Muslims who will be offended are extremists who agree with killing innocent Americans."
Mark Sakalosky
Tampa, FL

"If the town of Kent is worried about offending the one Muslim family, maybe they should talk to that one family."
David Darr
Lancaster, CA

"Sign me up for the bus to Kent, CT! It's about time that our country stops running from the truth and hiding behind PC garbage."
Elaine Wolfson
Brewster, NY

"Jewish memorials about the Holocaust name Nazi Germans as their murderers. As well they should. We should never forget."
Konrad Lau
Sedro-Woolley, WA

"I think it should say 'killed by al Qaeda terrorists.' The men behind 9/11 were not true Muslims."
Tim Burger
Sydney, Australia

VIRAL VIDEO ALERT!
"What was the elevator man-bat called? Too funny not to find."
Raymond Hurley
Ruskin, FL

"I loved the man-bat. Laughed so hard I wet my pants."
Betty Dillard
Bluefield, VA

Bill's Latest Column: Getting Radical

2009-10-29T21:12:00Z

In his new column for this week, Bill details President Obama's associations with far left (sometimes radically so) associates and what these connections mean for the White House.

Go: Bill's latest column

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, October 28

2009-10-29T00:08:00Z

POLITICAL DECISION?
Is President Obama delaying a decision on troops in Afghanistan as a political maneuver to please his far-left base?

"His indecision is 100% political. You don't win a Nobel Peace Prize, then intensify the situation in a combat zone all within the same month."
Peter Taddeo
Somers Point, NJ

"One of the stupidest things I've ever heard is a politician who has never been in the military telling our professional soldiers how best to wage war."
Ed Thomas
Quanah, TX

"I'm the mother of a son serving in Afghanistan. I'm getting angrier by the minute. President Obama needs to make a decision."
Rhonda Johnson
Converse, TX

"Our military forces in Afghanistan are essentially being held hostage by Obama's health care agenda. This is leadership?"
Gary Hughes
Valley Center, CA

"President Obama is playing roulette with the lives of our troops in Afghanistan by not sending the requested reinforcements. Didn't he learn from Vietnam you don't play politics with war?"
Rodger Sewell
Dowagiac, MI

"The only way to win this war is with overwhelming force. Obama should send 80,000 more troops."
Ed Dost
Port Angeles, WA

"Gen. McChrystal's call for more troops is the 3AM phone call discussed during the campaign."
Harold Olsen
Seattle, WA

"I think he made the decision not to send more troops months ago. The delay is to allow enough soldiers to be killed for the country to support complete withdrawal."
Stephen Fine
Redlands, Ca

"As a veteran, I consider President Obama's conduct to be a dereliction of duty as Commander-in-Chief."
Jeff Lewis
Kingsville, TX

"Obama is letting people die in Afghanistan because he doesn't want to risk his health care legacy. It's wrong."
Sue Fentz
Clearwater, FL

FACTOR CONFRONTATION
Producer Griff Jenkins goes to the Capitol to ask Rep. Grayson about his controversial comments. He is greeted warmly.

"It astounds me that a guy like Grayson can go on about following rules after referring to a female lobbyist as a whore. He's a disgrace."
Paul George
Derry, NH

"Alan Grayson is a first-term nobody who thinks his big mouth will get him noticed. He's only managed to earn the disrespect of most Americans."
Bill Emilius
Sarasota, FL

"Since when does an elected official get to dictate to an American taxpayer when and how he'll answer legitimate questions?"
Nick Campisi
Port Jefferson, NY

"I would suggest stationing Griff Jenkins at Rep. Grayson's office from the moment the Capitol opens until it closes. He should stay there until the guy answer his questions."
Ken Leaver Jr.
Pendleton, NY

"Kudos to Griff! I admire his cool tenacity."
Jeanne McInerny
Charlotte, NC

TOO HOT TO HANDLE!
Some models star in a video designed to call attention to global warming. They say they're so hot, they have to take all their clothes off!

"About your segment with Dennis Miller on the girls in the global warming ad: I say start the diesel engines!"
Bob Pyle
Susanville, CA

"If you want guys onboard with stopping global warming, you don't use models stripping to make your case. Guys will just pollute more!"
Kirk Wells
Camarillo, CA

SEXY TIME
A German lingerie ad features a sexy woman getting dressed. The viewer is shocked when she ultimately puts on a Muslim hijab.

"I can't imagine the outrage from Catholic viewers if a nun appeared in that lingerie ad instead of a Muslim woman."
Dan Banavige
Phillips, WI

"I think it's a bit narrow-minded to say carte blanche that the lingerie commercial is insulting to Muslims. It's trying to say they are normal, sexy women too."
James Kappelmeier
Anderson, MO

"Lingerie is just sexy underwear. Muslim women have a right to wear it just like everybody else. They should feel empowered by this ad."
Eddy Rodriguez
Weston, FL

"It brings to light that women are looked at as lesser people in the Muslim community. She submits to Islamic law, becoming another woman without an identity."
Yanni Kratsas
Las Vegas, NV

MISCELLANEOUS
"You are the best
In the north, south, east, west.
I do not pass a single day
Without hearing what you say
Always in your fair & balanced way!"
Alice Gillespie
Los Angeles, CA

Backstage Conversation resumes next week

2009-10-28T20:56:00Z

Due to scheduling conflicts, the regularly scheduled Backstage Conversation will not be run this week. It will return next week. We apologize for the delay!

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, October 27

2009-10-28T00:07:00Z

OUT OF CONTROL!
Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) keeps getting himself in trouble for controversial comments. Democratic Congressmen Wiener and Sestak try to explain why the Congress isn't sanctioning him.

"It's interesting that liberals are ignoring the outrageous comments by Congressman Grayson, but Joe Wilson had to apologize 100 times for shouting 'You Lie' at President Obama."
Joe Cole
Fort Wayne, IN

"Rep. Grayson is low man on the House totem pole. He's being asked to fall on his sword to distract the country from health care."
James Fountain
Lubbock, TX

"Does Congressman Sestak honestly believe he can pin the label 'progressive' on Alan Grayson and suddenly he'll sound more reasonable?"
Scott Jeffries
Miami, FL

"I'm embarrassed by Alan Grayson. I hope my neighbors who voted him into office will finally see how unfit he is for the job."
David Salzano
Orlando, FL

"He is just trying to get attention. The best thing we can do is ignore him."
John Hurley
Virginia Beach, VA

"You say Alan Grayson isn't an outstanding member of Congress. I disagree. He's out standing in the left field."
Gary Miller
Regina, Canada

HEALTH CARE FOR ALL?
What does new Fox News anchor and self-described libertarian think of Obama-care?

"John Stossel is onto something when he says we all need to pay more for health care. We are conditioned to believe that no matter what our income level, health care will be paid for by others."
Amber Lyons
Florence, AL

"The only way to provide a better safety net for those who truly can't afford health care is tax deductions for doctors who work in free health clinics."
Tony Guinta
Eagan, MN

"The working poor in this country struggle to be self-supportive. We work, pay taxes and don't qualify for government handouts."
Hal Briggs
South Bend, IN

"I agree with John Stossel. Liberals think with their hearts and not their brains."
Lynn Odgen
Bothell, WA

SPORTY PRESIDENT
The culture warriors consider whether there's anything wrong with Obama taking time off from the job to play basketball and golf.

"Obama should be working. Yes, he needs periodic breaks, but he takes too many of them."
Tony Hall
Plant City, FL

"Playing basketball and golf during wartime while being indecisive about troops in Afghanistan shows a lack of tact. It's completely inappropriate."
Stacey Fitzgerald
Nashville, TN

"Personally I'd rather see Obama playing golf than trying to redistribute our wealth."
Rich Buckland
Norcross, GA

NO HABLA ESPANOL?
A hotel owner in New Mexico is under fire for demanding his Hispanic workers speak English-only in his presence.

"I'd like to make a reservation at the Whitten Inn. I'm from South Florida and it'd be nice to hear some English for a change."
Deborah Smith
Miami, FL

"I support the hotel owner. Why should he have to learn Spanish? It's his hotel. He makes the rules."
Stephanie Wurdeman
Thurmont, MD

"Isn't that what we love about American capitalism? An entrepreneur having the right to do whatever he wants with his business?"
Christopher Dunne
Missoula, MT

"I suggest the hotel owner take a quick and intensive course in Spanish."
Daria Williams
West Islip, NY

"English is the official language of the United States. The hotel owner was wholly justified to demand it be spoken in his presence."
Michael Smith
Diamondhead, MS

"I'm a travel agency owner, and I surely will not be sending my Spanish speaking clientele to the Whitten Inn."
Luis Corchado
Vineland, NJ

MISCELLANEOUS
"One of our 4-year-old twin daughters says the Factor is her favorite show. But her twin prefers Alan Colmes."
Lien Goralski
Tomball, TX

"Who is the guy who laughs in the background when you say something funny? He cracks me up."
Eddie Torres
McLean, VA

"We just received our Factor gear. It will be a treat to use the American patriot tote bag on Halloween."
Norm & Diane Vanden Bergh
Cave Junction, OR

Stratfor.com: Russia, Iran and the Biden Speech

2009-10-27T20:57:00Z

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden toured several countries in Central Europe last week, including the Czech Republic and Poland. The trip comes just a few weeks after the United States reversed course and decided not to construct a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system in those two countries. While the system would have had little effect on the national security of either Poland or the Czech Republic, it was taken as a symbol of U.S. commitment to these two countries and to former Soviet satellites generally. The BMD cancellation accordingly caused intense concern in both countries and the rest of the region.

While the Obama administration strongly denied that the decision to halt the BMD deployment and opt for a different BMD system had anything to do with the Russians, the timing raised some questions. Formal talks with Iran on nuclear weapons were a few weeks away, and the only leverage the United States had in those talks aside from war was sanctions. The core of any effective sanctions against Iran would be placing limits on Iran's gasoline imports. By dint of proximity to Iran and massive spare refining capability, the Russians were essential to this effort-and they were indicating that they wouldn't participate. Coincidence or not, the decision to pull BMD from Poland and the Czech Republic did give the Russians something they had been demanding at a time when they clearly needed to be brought on board.

The Biden Challenge
That's what made Biden's trip interesting. First, just a few weeks after the reversal, he revisited these countries. He reasserted American commitment to their security and promised the delivery of other weapons such as Patriot missile batteries, an impressive piece of hardware that really does enhance regional security (unlike BMD, which would grant only an indirect boost). Then, Biden went even further in Romania, not only extending his guarantees to the rest of Central Europe, but also challenging the Russians directly. He said that the United States regarded spheres of influence as 19th century thinking, thereby driving home that Washington is not prepared to accept Russian hegemony in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Most important, he called on the former satellites of the Soviet Union to assist republics in the FSU that are not part of the Russian Federation to overthrow authoritarian systems and preserve their independence.

News Link: Transcript of Biden's speech

This was a carefully written and vetted speech: It was not Biden going off on a tangent, but rather an expression of Obama administration policy. And it taps into the prime Russian fear, namely, that the West will eat away at Russia's western periphery-and at Russia itself-with color revolutions that result in the installation of pro-Western governments, just as happened in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004-2005. The United States essentially now has pledged itself to do just that, and has asked the rest of Central Europe to join it in creating and strengthening pro-Western governments in the FSU. After doing something Russia wanted the United States to do, Washington now has turned around and announced a policy that directly challenges Russia, and which in some ways represents Russia's worst-case scenario.

What happened between the decision to pull BMD and Biden's Romania speech remains unclear, but there are three possibilities. The first possibility is that the Obama administration decided to shift policy on Russia in disappointment over Moscow's lack of response to the BMD overture. The second possibility is that the Obama administration didn't consider the effects of the BMD reversal. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the one had nothing to do with the other, and it is possible that the Obama administration simply failed to anticipate the firestorm the course reversal would kick off in Central Europe and to anticipate that it would be seen as a conciliatory gesture to the Russians, and then had to scramble to calm the waters and reassert the basic American position on Russia, perhaps more harshly than before. The third possibility, a variation on the second scenario, is that the administration might not yet have a coordinated policy on Russia. Instead, it responds to whatever the most recent pressure happens to be, giving the appearance of lurching policy shifts.

The why of Washington decision-making is always interesting, but the fact of what has now happened is more pertinent. And that is that Washington now has challenged Moscow on the latter's core issues. However things got to that point, they are now there-and the Russian issue now fully intersects with the Iranian issue. On a deeper level, Russia once again is shaping up to be a major challenge to U.S. national interests. Russia fears (accurately) that a leading goal of American foreign policy is to prevent the return of Russia as a major power. At present, however, the Americans lack the free hand needed to halt Russia's return to prominence as a result of commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Kremlin inner circle understands this divergence between goal and capacity all too well, and has been working to keep the Americans as busy as possible elsewhere.

Distracting Washington While Shoring Up Security
The core of this effort is Russian support for Iran. Moscow has long collaborated with Tehran on Iran's nuclear power generation efforts. Conventional Russian weapon systems are quite popular with the Iranian military. And Iran often makes use of Russian international diplomatic cover, especially at the U.N. Security Council, where Russia wields the all-important veto.

Russian support confounds Washington's ability to counter more direct Iranian action, whether that Iranian action be in Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq or the Persian Gulf. The Obama administration would prefer to avoid war with Iran, and instead build an international coalition against Iran to force it to back down on any number of issues of which a potential nuclear weapons program is only the most public and obvious. But building that coalition is impossible with a Russia-sized hole right in the center of the system.

The end result is that the Americans have been occupied with the Islamic world for some time now, something that secretly delights the Russians. The Iranian distraction policy has worked fiendishly well: It has allowed the Russians to reshape their own neighborhood in ways that simply would not be possible if the Americans had more diplomatic and military freedom of action. At the beginning of 2009, the Russians saw three potential challenges to their long-term security that they sought to mitigate. As of this writing, they have not only succeeded, they have managed partially to co-opt all three threats.

First, there is Ukraine, which is tightly integrated into the Russian industrial and agricultural heartland. A strong Ukrainian-Russian partnership (if not outright control of Ukraine by Russia) is required to maintain even a sliver of Russian security. Five years ago, Western forces managed to short-circuit a Kremlin effort to firm up Russian control of the Ukrainian political system, resulting in the Orange Revolution that saw pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko take office. After five years of serious Russian diplomatic and intelligence work, Moscow has since managed not just to discredit Yushchenko-he is now less popular in most opinion polls than the margin of error-but to command the informal loyalty of every other candidate for president in the upcoming January 2010 election. Very soon, Ukraine's Western moment will formally be over.

Russia is also sewing up the Caucasus. The only country that could challenge Russia's southern flank is Turkey, and until now, the best Russian hedge against Turkish power has been an independent (although certainly still a Russian client) Armenia. (Turkish-Armenian relations have been frozen in the post-Cold War era over the contentious issue of the Armenian genocide.) A few months ago, Russia offered the Turks the opportunity to improve relations with Armenia. The Turks are emerging from 90 years of near-comatose international relations, and they jumped at the chance to strengthen their position in the Caucasus. But in the process, Turkey's relationship with its heretofore regional ally, Azerbaijan (Armenia's archfoe), has soured. Terrified that they are about to lose their regional sponsor, the Azerbaijanis have turned to the Russians to counterbalance Armenia, while the Russians still pull all Armenia's strings. The end result is that Turkey's position in the Caucasus is now far weaker than it was a few months ago, and Russia still retains the ability to easily sabotage any Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.

Even on the North European Plain, Russia has made great strides. The main power on that plain is the recently reunified Germany. Historically, Germany and Russia have been at each other's throats, but only when they have shared a direct border. When an independent Poland separates them, they have a number of opportunities for partnership, and 2009 has seen such opportunities seized. The Russians initially faced a challenge regarding German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel is from the former East Germany, giving her personal reasons to see the Russians as occupiers. Cracking this nut was never going to be easy for Moscow, yet it succeeded. During the 2009 financial crisis, when Russian firms were snapping like twigs, the Russian government still provided bailout money and merger financing to troubled German companies, with a rescue plan for Opel even helping Merkel clinch re-election. With the Kremlin now offering to midwife-and in many cases directly subsidize-investment efforts in Russia by German firms such as E.On, Wintershall, Siemens, Volkswagen and ThyssenKrupp, the Kremlin has quite literally purchased German goodwill.

Washington Seeks a Game Changer
With Russia making great strides in Eurasia while simultaneously sabotaging U.S. efforts in the Middle East, the Americans desperately need to change the game. Despite its fiery tone, this desperation was on full display in Biden's speech. Flat-out challenging the Central Europeans to help other FSU countries recreate the revolutions they launched when they broke with the Soviet empire in 1989, specifically calling for such efforts in Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia, is as bald-faced a challenge as the Americans are currently capable of delivering. And to ensure there was no confusion on the point, Biden also promised-publicly-whatever support the Central Europeans might ask for. The Americans have a serious need for the Russians to be on the defensive. Washington wants to force the Russians to focus on their own neighborhood, ideally forgetting about the Iranians in the process. Better yet, Washington would like to force the Russians into a long slog of defensive actions to protect their clients hard up on their own border. The Russians did not repair the damage of the Orange Revolution overnight, so imagine how much time Washington would have if all of the former Soviet satellites started stirring up trouble across Russia's western and southern periphery.

The Central Europeans do not require a great deal of motivation. If the Americans are concerned about a resurgent Russia, then the Central Europeans are absolutely terrified-and that was before the Russians started courting Germany, the only regional state that could stand up to Russia by itself. Things are even worse for the Central Europeans than they seem, as much of their history has consisted of vainly attempting to outmaneuver Germany and Russia's alternating periods of war and partnership.

The question of why the United States is pushing this hard at the present time remains. Talks with the Iranians are under way; it is difficult to gauge how they are going. The conventional wisdom holds that the Iranians are simply playing for time before allowing the talks to sink. This would mean the Iranians don't feel terribly pressured by the threat of sanctions and don't take threats of attack very seriously. At least with regard to the sanctions, the Russians have everything to do with Iran's blase attitude. The American decision to threaten Russia might simply have been a last-ditch attempt to force Tehran's hand now that conciliation seems to have failed. It isn't likely to work, because for the time being Russia has the upper hand in the former Soviet Union, and the Americans and their allies-motivated as they may be-do not have the best cards to play.

The other explanation might be that the White House wanted to let Iran know that the Americans don't need Russia to deal with Iran. The threats to Russia might infuriate it, but the Kremlin is unlikely to feel much in the form of clear and present dangers. On the other hand, blasting the Russians the way Biden did might force the Iranians to reconsider their hand. After all, if the Americans are no longer thinking of the Russians as part of the solution, this indicates that the Americans are about to give up on diplomacy and sanctions. And that means the United States must choose between accepting an Iranian bomb or employing the military option.

And this leaves the international system with two outcomes. First, by publicly ending attempts to secure Russian help, Biden might be trying to get the Iranians to take American threats seriously. And second, by directly challenging the Russians on their home turf, the United States will be making the borderlands between Western Europe and Russia a very exciting place.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

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Viewer Mail for Monday, October 26

2009-10-27T00:06:00Z

CONSERVATIVE NATION
A new poll shows more and more Americans describe themselves as conservative, while fewer Americans are self-described liberals.

"People become more conservative at the point they realize they have things worth conserving."
Tom McClellan
Lakewood, WA

"An entire generation has grown up without being exposed to radical liberalism. Many people thought they were liberals until they saw the real thing in Obama."
Dave Stoltz
Slidell, LA

"I've been a Republican and a Democrat at different points in my life. Now I'm an independent because I don't want to be subjugated by any one party's agenda."
Ronald Klimmek
Glendale, CA

"I think the reason the poll turns out this way is many liberals don't like to admit their ideology and call themselves independents."
Arthur Schroeck
Henderson, NV

"Obama is the most liberal president of this century. Bill Clinton doesn't even come close."
Carl Wright
Wheaton, MD

"I'm an independent, but I'm moving in the conservative direction because of the radical Obama agenda."
Brandon Badge
Jackson, MI

OBAMA'S BOYS CLUB
The New York Times reports some feminists are concerned that the President's inner circle is dominated by men and some of his leisure activities are sports gatherings for men-only.

"I have finally realized why Obama doesn't like Sarah Palin. She can whoop him in basketball."
Ruth Bartels
Smithtown, NY

"Q: How do you get five White House executives to stop attacking Fox News?
A: Toss them a basketball."
Greg Palmer
Tampa, FL

"President Obama needs to play basketball to relieve the stress of writing so many speeches."
Jim Foust
Tucson, AZ

"President Obama doesn't have more women on his staff because all the qualified ones are Republicans."
Bob Mitchell
Indian Wells, CA

"I find it hard to believe President Obama is playing so much golf while the country is at war and the economy is faltering."
Melissa Davidson
Utica, NY

"Obama's boys club wants to get out and play basketball so they don't have to watch 'The View.'"
Travis Theel
Madison, WI

"The all girls club of 'The View' is complaining about the all boys club at the White House? That's ironic."
Stephen Coombs
Vernon, AZ

"The reason there aren't more powerful women at the Obama White House is because they're all at Fox News."
Kerry Thomas
Sayner, WI

"If Bush 43 had surrounded himself with only men, the left-wing media would have gone nuts and accused him of being sexist."
Mike Ma
San Francisco, CA

GLOBAL PERCEPTION
Do some world leaders think President Obama is weak when it comes to foreign policy?

"Obama is respected by our allies and feared by our adversaries. The threat of Obama prompted Iran to agree to nuclear inspections."
Hal Schiffman
Harker Heights, TX

"Foreigners have no reason to fear any loss of freedom from Barack Obama. Americans do."
Parker Howe
Phoenix, AZ

"The only people who fear Obama are the U.S. taxpayers."
Roger Dick
Dickinson, ND

"Who says a little sweetness won't work? I think this country is strong enough to overcome any weakness shown by our President."
Charles Cummiskey
Anchorage, AK

"Obama is weak and the rest of the world is laughing at him and us for putting him in office."
Ed Wilson
Bradenton, FL

MISCELLANEOUS
"We adopted a cat the other day and decided to name him after you. Reilly is bold and fresh."
Bill Richards
Felton, DE

"My wife and I watch your show every night, then debate over your talking points before calling it a night."
Mark Corbett
Pelham, NH

"Bill, you seemed in a particularly jaunty mood last night."
Markus Lanio
Gardner, KS

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-10-26T21:10:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was up a bit more to 5.34 questions correct out of 10, compared to the previous week's average of 5.22 out of 10. See how well you do this week!

Go: This week's O'Quiz

Viewer Mail for Friday, October 23

2009-10-24T00:05:00Z

FOX NEWS BAN
Something surprising happens when the White House tries to ban Fox News reporters from a pool event: the rest of the media comes to FNC's defense.

"While nobility is a possible motive for the media reaction to the White House exclusion of Fox News, my theory is they didn't want to attract undue attention to their competitors at FNC."
Jim Freeman
Kasson, MN

"The liberal media defended Fox to protect their industry. They don't want a Republican White House to be able to exclude them too."
Ken Zaggy
Jackson, MI

"This is the same as Chavez shutting down media that disagrees with him. There can no longer be any doubt that Obama is a socialist."
Jeff Lopez
Brownsburg, IN

"The media is doing this not out of any journalistic integrity, but so as not to appear the White House's lap dogs."
Eric Audet
Reno, NV

"The White House dissing FNC reminds me of my 5-year-old playmate saying 'if you won't play my way, I'll take my toys and go home.'"
Barbara Witt
Indianapolis, IN

"Our President is a narcissist and doesn't see how anyone could dare disagree with him."
Julie Funk
Sylvania, OH

"The only reason the other networks insisted Fox stay in the pool is to prevent a precedent that would allow a conservative president to do the same to them."
James Holzhauer
Columbus, MS

"The media sees the administration's marginalization of Fox as a clear and present danger to their own viability. It's noble, but it's also about self-preservation."
Bill Norman
Edmond, OK

"Fox News is a bully. The White House is trying to get the other kids - ABC, NBC, etc. - to go rob the candy store."
Ralph Boyer
Fairfield Bay, AR

"The elite media will throw Fox News under the bus when it can be done a bit more discreetly."
David Bergsma
Scottsdale, AZ

"Three cheers for the mainstream media for standing strong against the White House trying to shut Fox out."
PJ Olson
Centreville, VA

"All you have to do is upset one person in this administration and you could be the next news networked banned from the pool."
Linda Despres
Edgewater, FL

AT YOUR BECK & CALL
Glenn Beck's star is rising at Fox News. What is behind his incredible success?

"Glenn's show does well because it's Beck-tacular."
Bryce Smith
Peoria, IL

"Glenn Beck eagerly takes on the White House, Congress, unions, big corporations... But he sucks up to O'Reilly like a Fredo Corleone."
Clyde McKenney
Greenville, SC

"Beck's ratings are so high because he makes people think. And that scares the White House."
Ken Smith
Independence, MO

"Beck's ratings are through the roof because, like you, he's a bold fresh piece of humanity."
Marge Billings
Toledo, OH

"Beck is booming because he's passionate about his topics. Americans need to ask the right questions, and he's helping us do that."
Pam Adams
Defuniak Springs, FL

MISCELLANEOUS
"Does the Factor sell O'Reilly masks? I want to scare my local Democrats."
Ray Hoogendoorn
Wamego, KS

"I'm an old geezer who usually falls asleep while reading. Not with 'Bold Fresh.'"
Bud Kaylor
Peoria, AZ

This week's new crossword: A Dunn Deal

2009-10-23T19:56:00Z

After the White House's Anita Dunn declared war on Fox News, our crossword-meister began thinking of words that include variations of her surname. For better or worse, here is the result. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Viewer Mail for Thursday, October 22

2009-10-23T00:04:00Z

RIGHT-WING RADIO
Are controversial conservative commentators hurting the credibility of the Republican party?

"The ultra conservative right-wing radio commentators are hurting the Republican party."
Fred Hessman
Westminster, CA

"No quality leadership has emerged from the Republican party to stand up to President Obama, except Dick Cheney."
John Tokarchuk
Kirkland, WA

"Most right-wing radio is fact-based and objective, whereas much of the left-wing commentary is merely subjective conjecture."
Mark Speedy
Boca Raton, FL

"Every time the Republican party moves to the center or the left, it grows weaker. I've seen it over and over again."
Ralph Duddles
Petersburg, AK

BIRACIAL MARRIAGE
A judge in Louisiana refuses to marry a biracial couple, claiming any future children they have will face unnecessary hardships.

"I'm the son of a strong and loving biracial couple. I'm proud of culture warriors like my folks for going against the attitudes of people like Mr. Bardwell."
Derik Bremseth
McLean, VA

"The judge's decision isn't racist at all. He is correct to say the couple's kids would be treated cruelly in our society."
Gary Covington
Allen, TX

"The judge has a right to refuse any couple he doesn't think will last. A lot of marriages end because of conflicts in faith and cultural backgrounds."
Dennis Sweitzer
Elysburg, PA

"Not all marriages produce children. The judge's rationale doesn't hold water."
Harvey Waters
Mobile, AL

"My wife and I have been an interracial couple for 35 years, and our three daughters are fine young women. Anyone who says the children of interracial couples will automatically have problems is wrong."
Bill Bradley
Long Beach, CA

"It's outrageous the judge denied marriage to two consenting adults. They should sue him."
Lamont Curtis
Concord, NC

"I don't consider myself a racist, but I'm against interracial marriage. Forcing a judge to marry a black man and a white woman reeks of government control."
Greg Lee
Martin, TN

LEGALIZE IT?
The movement to make marijuana legal is gaining traction all over the country, as President Obama tells drug enforcement not to target medical marijuana clinics.

"If medical marijuana is beneficial for some medical conditions, why can't doctors prescribe it like any other drug?"
Stafford Gillespie
London, Canada

"Alcohol can be enjoyed responsibly without getting intoxicated. The point of pot is intoxication from the get-go."
Andy Gallant
Hamilton, Canada

"If marijuana is legalized, what's to stop people from subjecting my children to second-hand smoke?"
Hayley Broughton
Pahrump, NV

"Adults should be free to put into their bodies anything they want. It's hypocrisy to condone alcohol consumption and demonize marijuana use."
Blayne Vilk
Bedford, OH

"As long as marijuana is illegal, we have a game going. When the ban is lifted, people will just find a different way to protest against society."
Dana Mathews
Las Vegas, NV

"Legalizing marijuana will deteriorate families. Too many children of recreational drug users have been neglected or harmed."
Evelynn Dimbat
Payson, AZ

"You are being a fuddy duddy. Pot can be easily obtained by kids because there's a black market for it. Legalizing it would make it tougher."
Jason Heggie
Lompoc, CA

"You are totally right about legalizing pot. It would be a disaster."
Shirley Nuno
Palo Alto, CA

"The war on drugs is insane. We spend billions of dollars to overload our jails without measurable results."
Ed Poirier
Colchester, VT

Bill's Latest Column: Fighting the Good Fight

2009-10-22T20:27:00Z

In his new column for this week, Bill describes what he would do as President Obama's chief advisor if the president were to fire Rahm Emanuel.

Go: Bill's latest column

New Backstage Conversation now online!

2009-10-21T23:51:00Z

Does the divide between Democrats and Republicans mean that the American experiment has failed? Hear the answer to this question, and many more, in this week's Backstage Conversation webcast.

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, October 20

2009-10-21T00:03:00Z

INDECISION-GATE 2009
"Let's face it -- President Obama is making a de facto decision not to send more troops. Each day he hesitates, he risks more lives."
Bob Weis
Long Island City, NY

"Nothing infuriates service members more than a leader who can't make a decision. History has showed lives are lost when leaders waffle."
Tim Bellott
Chesapeake, VA

"Our troops will follow their leadership without hesitation, but indecision is often viewed as weakness and can cause a lack of confidence."
Doug Warner
Cabot, AR

"Obama is clueless about how this country attained freedom in the first place. He will put out of Afghanistan."
Mark Parker
Jonesville, NC

"We need to forget about Afghanistan and concentrate our efforts on Pakistan, where al Qaeda and the Taliban actually are."
Kenneth Hogue, CPO USN (Ret.)
San Antonio, TX

"Why are you surprised it's taking him so long to make a decision? After all, it took him six months to decide what kind of a dog to get for his family."
Pete Schmitz
Cedarburg, WI

"President Obama cannot decide whether to send more troops to Afghanistan because he is a creature of habit. This is his way of voting present."
Robert Schwaber
Seaford, NY

"Breaking news: Obama has authorized 40,000 more troops to fight Fox News."
Tom Riedl
Wallaceburg, Canada

LEGALIZE IT?
The movement to legalize marijuana in California is gaining momentum. Libertarian -- and new Fox News anchor -- John Stossel explains why he supports the idea.

"Legalized drugs aren't going to cause people to become addicts anymore than legalized alcohol causes alcoholism. We should stop wasting money on the war on drugs."
Kenneth Hogue
San Antonio, TX

"John Stossel is wrong about drug legalization. The reason dealers sell to kids is because they want to get them hooked while they're young and impressionable."
Pete Moceri
Tacoma, WA

"The libertarian in me would love to legalize pot, but the taxpayer in me is tired of paying for all the losers in this country."
Jim Clements
Brentwood, NH

"Stossel got it right. It is the illegality that causes drug use to flourish. If your argument was valid, we'd have to go back to prohibition."
Judy Kopulos
Fountain Hills, AZ

"Stossel says more kids are abused because of alcohol use. Alcohol is already legal, so what will happen if we legalize marijuana too?"
Daniel Brown
California, MD

"John Stossel is great and I'm thrilled to see he's joined the Fox News team. But he's wrong about drugs. They are bad."
Jason Yoder
Modesto, CA

"The government's job is to protect citizens from hurting one another, but it's not their role to regulate what private citizens can do in their respective pursuits of happiness."
Lamont Curtis
Concord, NC

"A smart person like John Stossel should know we live in a hedonistic society. People will get stoned all the time and live off the dole."
Tamur Dickinson
Patterson, CA

BIG LAWSUIT
The producers of the Miss California pageant sue Carrie Prejean, saying she should return the money they lent her for breast implants.

"I do hope Lis and Kelly will keep us abreast of developments in the Carrie Prejean story."
Robin Hubbard
Los Angeles, CA

"I believe Ms. Prejean should pay back the $5,200, then proceed with her own lawsuit and go for bust!"
Lance Amos
Mesa, AZ

"The Miss California organization and Carrie Prejean are quite a pair."
Jeff Travis
Cheyenne, WY

"Seriously, I think this Carrie Prejean thing is making a mountain out of a molehill."
Dave Cotton
Irvine, CA

MISCELLANEOUS
"You make this woman very happy by bringing back the word popinjay. That's my favorite!"
Carole Ocampo
Appleton, WI

"My 86-year-old mother watches your show every night,
Sometimes with concern, always with delight.
Claire has purchased every book you've written,
Some might say she is smitten.
On October 29th, she'll turn 87,
A signed 'Bold Fresh' would really be heaven!"
Jim Callista
Cherry Hill, NJ

Viewer Mail for Monday, October 19

2009-10-20T00:01:00Z

EXPOSING RADICALS
As the White House continues its war against Fox, the network reports on communications director Anita Dunn speaking about how much she admires Chinese dictator Mao Tse-Tung.

"If Anita Dunn is looking for someone to use as an example of taking a philosophy and running it to a successful conclusion, why doesn't she idolize our Founding Fathers instead of Mao?"
Barbara Adams
Louisville, KY

"Even if Ms. Dunn admires Mao's political strategies, she could have denounced his atrocities in the same breath. Not very bright."
Daryl Isobe
San Diego, CA

"Mao would shut down any news organization that failed to worship the chairman at the appropriate level. No wonder Ms. Dunn admires him."
Jerry Lighthouse
Rochester, NY

"If Anita Dunn admires Mao for doing things his own way, shouldn't she also admire Fox News?"
Brett Little
Pensacola, FL

"It seems like it's time for the President to appoint a Blooter Czar."
Damien Stepick
Emerson, NJ

"If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck."
Waldo Tames
Jupiter, FL

"The approach the Obama administration is taking with FNC is fatuous and will prove to be detrimental to its popularity with the American public. We're not as dense as they think we are."
Alan Ballenger
Birmingham, AL

"The White House is trying to intimidate other news outlets into ignoring Fox News stories."
Theron Keller
Fredericksburg, VA

"The White House is trying to get the mainstream media to cooperate in isolating Fox News."
Roger Proza
Dallas, TX

"Fox News is the only media outlet trying to hold the administration accountable. If everyone liked you, you wouldn't be doing your job."
Mary Sammons
Louisville, KY

DECISION DELAY
The nation waits while the Commander-in-Chief decides whether or not to send troops to Afghanistan, as requested by Gen. Stanley McChrystal.

"If Obama sends more troops, he will anger the left-wing of his base. I believe he's looking for a reason to leave to appease his base."
James King III
Bennington, VT

"I wish Obama would be as fact-finding, considerate and cautious in his approach to health care as he is with Afghanistan."
Grant Brimhall
Orem, UT

"Afghanistan should be compared to Vietnam. Corrupt government with a civil war in progress. Time to bring the troops home."
James Keitchen
Osprey, FL

"Obama doesn't know what to do. You don't elect a cook and elect him captain of a ship because he talks a good game."
Patrick Duffy
Manor, TX

"Once Obama makes a large military commitment in Afghanistan, he takes ownership of the war. That's his biggest dilemma."
Josh Weaver
Mount Joy, PA

"I wonder how those against sending more troops would feel if their son or daughter were fighting in Afghanistan."
Rose Nunes
Manteca, CA

"Obama's career has better prepared him for a war against Fox News than a war in Afghanistan. He can't beat the Taliban with spin and rhetoric."
Doug Warner, USAF (Ret.)
Cabot, AR

"Obama is stalling. Sending more troops would cause Obama to risk essential liberal support for health care. He'll sacrifice anything to save his legislation."
Mike Hokanson
LaVista, NE

PINHEAD MOVE!
Somebody buys a lock of Elvis Presley's hair at auction for more than $18,000!

"Maybe the guy who bought Elvis' hair is hoping to clone the king!"
Charles Graff
Madison, WI

"Anyone who would spend $18,000 for a lock of Elvis' hair ain't nothing but a hound dog."
Rob Lavisky
Sterling Heights, MI

"Maybe you should auction off a lock of your hair for charity. It would bring in a lot of dough because it's a rare commodity."
Brian Warner
Blaine, WA

"This is a case of someone having more money than brains."
Kathleen Swart
San Rafael, CA

MISCELLANEOUS
"If you sell a t-shirt that says 'FOX IS NEWS,' I'll buy it in extra large and wear it over my coat."
Alice Wilson
Staten Island, NY

"For Halloween, I'm dressing as a Fox News anchor. That's the scariest thing to the White House!"
Dodi Swayze
Cypress, TX

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-10-19T20:03:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was finally up, this time to 5.22 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 4.37 out of 10. See how well you do this week!

Go: This week's O'Quiz

This week's new crossword: Most Wanted by the Food Police

2009-10-16T20:11:00Z

With the feds talking about taxing and regulating junk food, this week's puzzle is filled with some of the worst offenders... and plenty of calories. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Bill's Latest Column: Give War A Chance

2009-10-15T21:26:00Z

In his new column for this week, Bill analyzes President Obama's strategy to seek consensus amongst world leaders in the ongoing fight against global extremism.

Go: Bill's latest column

Viewer Mail for Thursday, October 15

2009-10-15T17:49:00Z

BACON IS GOOD FOR ME!
A young boy is the victim of a cruel trick on the reality show 'Wife Swap' -- his new "mother" cleans out his refrigerator and gets rid of his bacon!

"Bacon is the life-blood of this great country."
Jimmy Yarbrough
Corpus Christi, TX

"Bacon and chocolate are proof God loves us."
Sandy Wiggins
Mena, AR

"When was the last time you saw a neighborhood kid mowing the lawn or shoveling their driveway? Bacon isn't the problem."
Frank Bifone
Wantagh, NY

"I love bacon. I don't believe there is any food known to man that can't be made better by adding bacon."
Col. Daryl Garner
Lawton, OK

"My dinner tonight was two bacon strips, two hot dogs, onions, tomatoes, horseradish, mustard, mayo, ketchup and Galapagos."
Gabriel Garcia
Las Vegas, NV

"There's nothing wrong with eliminating unhealthy foods like bacon from your diet. Seven years ago, I weighed 300 pounds, and now I'm down to 180 pounds because of a restricted diet."
Matt Martin
Valencia, CA

"You are a pinhead for saying BLTs are healthy. Bacon is not healthy. Eating it in moderation may be acceptable, but it's not healthy."
Dr. Leanne Mannella
Dublin, GA

CALL ME!
After criticism that his program is unfair to the Obama administration, Glenn Beck has installed a hotline for the White House to call him with complaints about his coverage.

"It looks like Glenn Beck's hard line to the White House was a refurbished version of the bat phone. He stands a better chance of receiving a call from Commissioner Gordon than Anita Dunn."
Paul Mowrer
Clermont, FL

"I'm glad to hear Glenn Beck gave the White House his phone number. It seems he's had their number for awhile now."
Christy Wells-Reece
Cleveland, TN

"Will there be a Fox News alert when Glenn Beck's red phone rings?"
Kate Mitchell
Atlanta, GA

"Beck isn't taunting the White House. He's exposing their agenda and America needs to listen to him!"
Bob Harvey
Sumter, SC

"Watching you and Beck is like watching an old Cheech and Chong movie."
Bob Sutton
Springfield, KS

"I love Glenn Beck's red phone. Send me his number and I'll call him so he won't be lonely."
Ted Georgian
Andover, MA

MUSIC TO OUR EARS?
Bob Dylan releases a Christmas album for charity. But does his trademark voice hit a sour note with the holiday classics?

"As a fan of Bob Dylan, I resent your mockery of his new Christmas album. You behaved like a ninnyhammer."
Gwen Weeke
Greenville, SC

"It's not exactly my singing style, but Bob Dylan is donating the proceeds of his album to charity. Plus, he's singing songs about Christ."
Teesee Clower
Glennville, GA

"Now I have to try to go to sleep after hearing Bob Dylan sing 'Hark the Herald Angels Sing.' That was a nightmare."
Patricia Duncan
Bredenton, FL

"This is a noble endeavor, but I fear the charity Bob Dylan is donating his album proceeds to won't be getting much money."
Peter Boudette
Albany, NY

"Bob Dylan has always wanted to sing Christmas carols so badly. From what I heard, it sounds like his wish came true."
Jim Stoffaire
Bishop, CA

MISCELLANEOUS
"Thank you for using a truly fine Doobie Brothers song to transition out of Reality Check. I was afraid I'd be stuck with Bob Dylan in my head."
George McKenzie
Ingleside, IL

"I really enjoy the bumper music played on your show. 'Classical Gas' was my favorite. It reminded me of you."
David Holman
Farmington, MO

"There once was a man named Bill-O
Who hosted the Factor show
His rivals were aghast
With the ratings he amassed
Now they tune into Bill-O!"
Sue Eickman
Glendale, AZ

New Backstage Conversation now online!

2009-10-14T22:53:00Z

Are there any politicians that Bill feels are truly sincere? Hear the answer to this question, and many more, in this week's Backstage Conversation webcast.

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, October 14

2009-10-14T19:19:00Z

HATING OBAMA-CARE
Political analyst Dick Morris explains why he is a harsh critic of the health care reform plan supported by the Obama administration.

"We have been ardent supporters of the Factor since its inception. But your approval of Obama-care has left us with a debilitating sense of betrayal."
Dave & Betty
Beverly Hills, CA

"Please keep following Obama's health care plan and make sure it's good for the majority of the folks. I'm very worried."
Eve Saberi
Rancho Santa Margarita, CA

"I have read the entire bill, and even without the public option, the government will dictate all the rules."
Mike McCurdy
Coppell, TX

"Despite knowing our country needs health care reform, there hasn't been a single responsible Democrat who can convince me the proposed legislation isn't a pox on our population."
Michael Wikan
Sorrento, FL

"Dick Morris offers persuasive arguments that Obama-care is change we can bereave in."
Joseph Ciotti
Honolulu, HI

FOOTBALL CONTROVERSY
Opposition to Rush Limbaugh's NFL bid is based on some racial quotes he allegedly made on his radio show. The only problem is the quotes appear to be fabricated.

"The assault on Rush Limbaugh is outrageous. Shame on so-called intelligent people believing his alleged statements without checking the facts."
Colette Sandusky
Riverview, FL

"Rush Limbaugh is being targeted and punished simply because he's conservative."
Sandy Brasili
Chester, VA

"Rush is being targeted because he isn't afraid to speak his mind."
Shawn White
Scottsdale, AZ

"Let me see if I have this right: an organization full of convicted criminals is worried about tarnishing its image with Rush Limbaugh? The hypocrisy is staggering."
Chad Hale
Gulfport, MS

"If Mark Cuban can own an NBA team and Michael Vick can play in the NFL, why can't Rush Limbaugh make a bid for the Rams?"
Brett Casden
La Quinta, CA

"I hate Rush Limbaugh, but he should be allowed to purchase anything he wants."
Brett Valette
Superior, CO

"The NFL obviously has an image to maintain. That's why they let classy people like Terrell Owens and Michael Vick represent them, and not Rush."
Robert Sullivan
Idaho Falls, ID

"I hope Rush prevails in a lawsuit and gets a public apology from all the news outlets who defamed him."
Angela Schultz
San Jose, CA

"I'm a huge football fan. Rush Limbaugh's politics should have nothing to do with him owning part of the Rams team."
Lesley Grace
Pensacola, FL

"Rush Limbaugh shouldn't buy the St. Louis Rams. He should play tackle for them."
John Robison
San Antonio, TX

"Sheila Jackson Lee praised Michael Jackson in Congress just a few months ago. Now she's criticizing Limbaugh from the same podium. She needs to get her priorities straight."
David Soldner
Beaver Dam, WI

"Racism must be fought on all levels, even when it's against wealthy, powerful white men."
Bob Shlafer
Stamford, CT

"Hypocrisy rears its ugly head again. Mr. Limbaugh may make polarizing comments, but how does that prohibit you from participating in the NFL when killing dogs apparently doesn't?"
Adam Van Hook-Drucker
Phoenix, AZ

MILLER TIME
"How many people, other than Dennis Miller, call you Billy? It reminds me of the elementary school playground."
Wayne Parker
Lake Havasu City, AZ

"My wife and I saw Miller in Las Vegas Sunday night. We were amazed by how funny he was. Our conclusion: he deserves a longer segment on the Factor."
Kirk Taylor
Brighton Beach, SC

PINHEAD ALERT!
A lizard who can walk on water. But should it deserve to be named after Jesus Christ?

"The lizard is not a pinhead, the people who named it are. Please apologize to the lizard."
Rae Drees
Mendota, IL

"This lizard is just doing what millions of years of God-designed evolution has enabled it to do."
Edward Godwin
Round Rock, TX

Stratfor.com: Nobel Geopolitics

2009-10-13T22:02:00Z

U.S. President Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize last week. Alfred Nobel, the inventor of dynamite, established the prize, which was to be awarded to the person who has accomplished "the most or the best work for fraternity among nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the promotion of peace congresses." The mechanism for awarding the peace prize is very different from the other Nobel categories. Academic bodies, such as the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, decide who wins the other prizes. Alfred Nobel's will stated, however, that a committee of five selected by the Norwegian legislature, or Storting, should award the peace prize.

The committee that awarded the peace prize to Obama consists of chairman Thorbjorn Jagland, president of the Storting and former Labor Party prime minister and foreign minister of Norway; Kaci Kullmann Five, a former member of the Storting and president of the Conservative Party; Sissel Marie Ronbeck, a former Social Democratic member of the Storting; Inger-Marie Ytterhorn, a former member of the Storting and current senior adviser to the Progress Party; and Agot Valle, a current member of the Storting and spokeswoman on foreign affairs for the Socialist Left Party.

The peace prize committee is therefore a committee of politicians, some present members of parliament, some former members of parliament. Three come from the left (Jagland, Ronbeck and Valle). Two come from the right (Kullman and Ytterhorn). It is reasonable to say that the peace prize committee faithfully reproduces the full spectrum of Norwegian politics.

A Frequently Startling Prize
Prize recipients frequently have proved startling. For example, the first U.S. president to receive the prize was Theodore Roosevelt, who received it in 1906 for helping negotiate peace between Japan and Russia. Roosevelt genuinely sought peace, but ultimately because of American fears that an unbridled Japan would threaten U.S. interests in the Pacific. He sought peace to ensure that Japan would not eliminate Russian power in the Pacific and not hold Port Arthur or any of the other prizes of the Russo-Japanese War. To achieve this peace, he implied that the United States might intervene against Japan.

In brokering negotiations to try to block Japan from exploiting its victory over the Russians, Roosevelt was engaged in pure power politics. The Japanese were in fact quite bitter at the American intervention. (For their part, the Russians were preoccupied with domestic unrest.) But a treaty emerged from the talks, and peace prevailed. Though preserving a balance of power in the Pacific motivated Roosevelt, the Nobel committee didn't seem to care. And given that Alfred Nobel didn't provide much guidance about his intentions for the prize, choosing Roosevelt was as reasonable as the choices for most Nobel Peace Prizes.

In recent years, the awards have gone to political dissidents the committee approved of, such as the Dalai Lama and Lech Walesa, or people supporting causes it agreed with, such as Al Gore. Others were peacemakers in the Theodore Roosevelt mode, such as Le Duc Tho and Henry Kissinger for working toward peace in Vietnam and Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin for moving toward peace between the Israelis and Palestinians.

Two things must be remembered about the Nobel Peace Prize. The first is that Nobel was never clear about his intentions for it. The second is his decision to have it awarded by politicians from-and we hope the Norwegians will accept our advance apologies-a marginal country relative to the international system. This is not meant as a criticism of Norway, a country we have enjoyed in the past, but the Norwegians sometimes have an idiosyncratic way of viewing the world.

Therefore, the award to Obama was neither more or less odd than some of the previous awards made by five Norwegian politicians no one outside of Norway had ever heard of. But his win does give us an opportunity to consider an important question, namely, why Europeans generally think so highly of Obama.

Obama and the Europeans
Let's begin by being careful with the term European. Eastern Europeans and Russians-all Europeans-do not think very highly of him. The British are reserved on the subject. But on the whole, other Europeans west of the former Soviet satellites and south and east of the English Channel think extremely well of him, and the Norwegians are reflecting this admiration. It is important to understand why they do.

The Europeans experienced catastrophes during the 20th century. Two world wars slaughtered generations of Europeans and shattered Europe's economy. Just after the war, much of Europe maintained standards of living not far above that of the Third World. In a sense, Europe lost everything-millions of lives, empires, even sovereignty as the United States and the Soviet Union occupied and competed in Europe. The catastrophe of the 20th century defines Europe, and what the Europeans want to get away from.

The Cold War gave Europe the opportunity to recover economically, but only in the context of occupation and the threat of war between the Soviets and Americans. A half century of Soviet occupation seared Eastern European souls. During that time, the rest of Europe lived in a paradox of growing prosperity and the apparent imminence of another war. The Europeans were not in control of whether the war would come, or where or how it would be fought. There are therefore two Europes. One, the Europe that was first occupied by Nazi Germany and then by the Soviet Union still lives in the shadow of the dual catastrophes. The other, larger Europe, lives in the shadow of the United States.

Between 1945 and 1991, Western Europe lived in a confrontation with the Soviets. The Europeans lived in dread of Soviet occupation, and though tempted, never capitulated to the Soviets. That meant that the Europeans were forced to depend on the United States for their defense and economic stability, and were therefore subject to America's will. How the Americans and Russians viewed each other would determine whether war would break out, not what the Europeans thought.

Every aggressive action by the United States, however trivial, was magnified a hundredfold in European minds, as they considered fearfully how the Soviets would respond. In fact, the Americans were much more restrained during the Cold War than Europeans at the time thought. Looking back, the U.S. position in Europe itself was quite passive. But the European terror was that some action in the rest of the world-Cuba, the Middle East, Vietnam-would cause the Soviets to respond in Europe, costing them everything they had built up.

In the European mind, the Americans prior to 1945 were liberators. After 1945 they were protectors, but protectors who could not be trusted to avoid triggering another war through recklessness or carelessness. The theme dominating European thinking about the United States was that the Americans were too immature, too mercurial and too powerful to really be trusted. From an American point of view, these were the same Europeans who engaged in unparalleled savagery between 1914 and 1945 all on their own, and the period after 1945-when the Americans dominated Europe-was far more peaceful and prosperous than the previous period. But the European conviction that the Europeans were the sophisticated statesmen and prudent calculators while the Americans were unsophisticated and imprudent did not require an empirical basis. It was built on another reality, which was that Europe had lost everything, including real control over its fate, and that trusting its protector to be cautious was difficult.

The Europeans loathed many presidents, e.g., Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan. Jimmy Carter was not respected. Two were liked: John F. Kennedy and Bill Clinton. Kennedy relieved them of the burden of Dwight D. Eisenhower and his dour Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, who was deeply distrusted. Clinton was liked for interesting reasons, and understanding this requires examining the post-Cold War era.

The United States and Europe After the Cold War
The year 1991 marked the end of the Cold War. For the first time since 1914, Europeans were prosperous, secure and recovering their sovereignty. The United States wanted little from the Europeans, something that delighted the Europeans. It was a rare historical moment in which the alliance existed in some institutional sense, but not in any major active form. The Balkans had to be dealt with, but those were the Balkans-not an area of major concern.

Europe could finally relax. Another world war would not erase its prosperity, and they were free from active American domination. They could shape their institutions, and they would. It was the perfect time for them, one they thought would last forever.

For the United States, 9/11 changed all that. The Europeans had deep sympathy for the United States post-Sept. 11, sympathy that was on the whole genuine. But the Europeans also believed that former U.S. President George W. Bush had overreacted to the attacks, threatening to unleash a reign of terror on them, engaging in unnecessary wars and above all not consulting them. The last claim was not altogether true: Bush frequently consulted the Europeans, but they frequently said no to his administration's requests. The Europeans were appalled that Bush continued his policies in spite of their objections; they felt they were being dragged back into a Cold War-type situation for trivial reasons.

The Cold War revolved around Soviet domination of Europe. In the end, whatever the risks, the Cold War was worth the risk and the pain of U.S. domination. But to Europeans, the jihadist threat simply didn't require the effort the United States was prepared to put into it. The United States seemed unsophisticated and reckless, like cowboys.
The older European view of the United States re-emerged, as did the old fear. Throughout the Cold War, the European fear was that a U.S. miscalculation would drag the Europeans into another catastrophic war. Bush's approach to the jihadist war terrified them and deepened their resentment. Their hard-earned prosperity was in jeopardy again because of the Americans, this time for what the Europeans saw as an insufficient reason. The Americans were once again seen as overreacting, Europe's greatest Cold War-era dread.

For Europe, prosperity had become an end in itself. It is ironic that the Europeans regard the Americans as obsessed with money when it is the Europeans who put economic considerations over all other things. But the Europeans mean something different when they talk about money. For the Europeans, money isn't about piling it higher and higher. Instead, money is about security. Their economic goal is not to become wealthy but to be comfortable. Today's Europeans value economic comfort above all other considerations. After Sept. 11, the United States seemed willing to take chances with the Europeans' comfortable economic condition that the Europeans themselves didn't want to take. They loathed George W. Bush for doing so.

Conversely, they love Obama because he took office promising to consult with them. They understood this promise in two ways. One was that in consulting the Europeans, Obama would give them veto power. Second, they understood him as being a president like Kennedy, namely, as one unwilling to take imprudent risks. How they remember Kennedy that way given the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the coup against Diem in Vietnam is hard to fathom, but of course, many Americans remember him the same way. The Europeans compare Obama to an imaginary Kennedy, but what they really think is that he is another Clinton.

Clinton was Clinton because of the times he lived in and not because of his nature: The collapse of the Soviet Union created a peaceful interregnum in which Clinton didn't need to make demands on Europe's comfortable prosperity. George W. Bush lived in a different world, and that caused him to resume taking risks and making demands.

Obama does not live in the 1990s. He is facing Afghanistan, Iran and a range of other crises up to and including a rising Russia that looks uncannily similar to the old Soviet Union. It is difficult to imagine how he can face these risks without taking actions that will be counter to the European wish to be allowed to remain comfortable, and worse, without ignoring the European desire to avoid what they will see as unreasonable U.S. demands. In fact, U.S.-German relations already are not particularly good on Obama's watch. Obama has asked for troops in Afghanistan and been turned down, and has continued to call for NATO expansion, which the Germans don't want.

The Norwegian politicians gave their prize to Obama because they believed that he would leave Europeans in their comfortable prosperity without making unreasonable demands. That is their definition of peace, and Obama seemed to promise that. The Norwegians on the prize committee seem unaware of the course U.S.-German relations have taken, or of Afghanistan and Iran. Alternatively, perhaps they believe Obama can navigate those waters without resorting to war. In that case, it is difficult to imagine what they make of the recent talks with Iran or planning on Afghanistan.

The Norwegians awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to the president of their dreams, not the president who is dealing with Iran and Afghanistan. Obama is not a free actor. He is trapped by the reality he has found himself in, and that reality will push him far away from the Norwegian fantasy. In the end, the United States is the United States-and that is Europe's nightmare, because the United States is not obsessed with maintaining Europe's comfortable prosperity. The United States cannot afford to be, and in the end, neither can President Obama, Nobel Peace Prize or not.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

Click here to take advantage of 50% OFF regular subscription rates - offered exclusively for BillOReilly.com readers.

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, October 13

2009-10-13T19:38:00Z

MOVING FORWARD
The Senate Finance Committee passes health reform. What's next?

"The health care debate is about control, not health. If Obama wants to save Americans money, he should address the oil catastrophe first."
Jack Moore
Indianapolis, IN

"Thanks for challenging Karl Rove about why he didn't get health care done during the Bush administration. I was wondering the same thing."
Ron Cooney
Clearwater, FL

"This is not a laughing matter. It is far more important than betting a fancy dinner with Karl Rove. The health care takeover will hurt hard-working, responsible Americans."
Lisa Buswell
League City, TX

"Health care reform: live longer less comfortably. What is wrong with this picture?"
Bruce Williams
Lebanon, TN

"If auto insurance is an example, you can easily save money by shopping around. Health insurance should work the same way."
Maralea Eames
Jenks, OK

"Since another 3 million people are about to enter the health care market, should we make doctor's appointments a year in advance now?"
Laurie Daigle
Baton Rouge, LA

"You let Claire McCaskill spin you like a new Fisher Price top! For shame!"
Bill Connor
Desoto, IL

"Sen. McCaskill says the most important thing about health care is it will reduce the deficit? How about higher quality, lower cost?"
Ron Lovely
Friendswood, TX

"A teddy bear would have conducted a tougher interview with Sen. McCaskill."
Don Buehner
Bloomington, IN

"When Sen. McCaskill says Obama-care will reduce the deficit by $81 billion, doesn't she mean the plan will overtax Americans by $81 billion?"
Gary Vivian
St. Louis, MO

GOVERNMENT INTRUSION?
The Obama administration steps in and says the cereal Cheerios can't claim it lowers cholesterol without scientific proof.

"Consumer Reports recommends Cheerios as a good choice among cereals. The government attack is counter-productive."
Len Lamensdorf
Westlake Village, CA

"It is scientifically documented that whole food nutrition can lower cholesterol without drugs. The nanny state needs to get their facts straight."
Marianne Moody
Tampa, FL

"The soluble fiber in Cheerios may not be as drastic as Lipitor, but it's a step in the right direction."
Scott Brown, MS, RD
Charleston, SC

"Since Dr. Obama says Cheerios don't lower cholesterol, I guess I'll go back to a breakfast of bacon, fried eggs and bagels."
Jane Wisniewski
Maryland

"Obama's desire to control how much money we make, the food we eat, the bonuses we get from work, what we can and can't say is un-American. This administration is beyond power hungry."
Will Jones
Brunswick, GA

"I eat Cheerios most nights for dinner and it's lowered my cholesterol. Don't be so quick to judge."
Tom Tinsley
New Port Richey, FL

SCOUT'S DISHONOR
A 6-year-old Cub Scout in Delaware is suspended from school for bringing in a camping utensil with a knife on it. Now the district wants the boy to go to reform school.

"You say that educators need to use judgment and discretion, I say they need to use just plain old common sense."
Gloria Hazelrigg
Gig Harbor, WA

"A sharp pencil could be considered a weapon. Are we now going to ban sharp pencils in schools?"
Daisy Wilson
Lake St. Louis, MO

"The school district wanting to send this kid to reform school is just another example of our government out of control and lacking common sense at any level."
Robert Tapley
Tucson, AZ

"This reminds me of a quote by Robert Green Ingersoll: 'It is a thousand times better to have common sense without education than to have education without common sense.'"
Gale Taylor
Crawfordville, FL

"As a Scout leader for six years, I know a Scout is not supposed to have a knife until he reaches the rank of Bear (third grade). I fault the parents for giving him the utensil but not teaching him the responsibility that comes with it."
Michael Clark
Shreveport, LA

"As a Cubmaster, I know first graders are not allowed to carry knives like the one that kid brought to school."
David Bedford
El Paso, TX

"Rules are rules and if knives aren't allowed in school, the boy has to pay the price."
Becky McCray
Corpus Christi, TX

MISCELLANEOUS
"You are drinking the kool-aid. Giving extra credit during the quiz is nothing but a case of redistribution of points!"
Bob Pannelli
Niceville, FL

"Please tell my brother Oscar to stop the spin and buy me a doormat as a birthday gift."
Juan Ramirez
Paso Robles, CA

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-10-12T20:59:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was down even further to 4.37 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 4.87 out of 10. Come on, people, let's improve that score this week!

Go: This week's O'Quiz

Viewer Mail for Monday, October 12

2009-10-12T19:37:00Z

MEDIA SHOWDOWN
The White House communications director attacks Fox News while appearing on CNN.

"The Obama administration is attacking Fox because you're exposing its agenda to redistribute wealth."
Mark Stevens
Ridgewood, NJ

"They could be trying to divert attention away from their health care problems, their military problems, their economic problems, their unemployment problems..."
Steve Graham
Brandon, MS

"Fox News doesn't need to defend its reporting to the White House whinery. The White House seems to believe if you're not for them, you must be against them."
Neil Hoppe
Franklin, NC

"If you are a media target for the White House, you should be proud of your organization. This administration can't take criticism."
Wayne Hofmann
Mitchell, SD

"I think the White House complaints about Fox News are the best advertising around!"
John Tolle
Chico, CA

"President Obama expects objections to his policies to disappear. I guess the world looks different from the Oval Office."
Tom Fear
Youngstown, OH

"The White House is subtlety trying to pressure Fox News to back off. Don't fall for their guilting tactics."
Bill Hemingway
Sunriver, OR

"They are hoping if they attack you, fewer Americans will take what Fox News analysts say about health care seriously."
Ruth Ryan
St. Augustine, FL

"The folks don't believe what they're being told by the mainstream media, so they're choosing to watch FNC. This rankles the White House."
Ron Stuart
Exeter, RI

"The real reason the Obama administration dislikes Fox News is because you report the facts they would like to keep hidden."
Bob Steup
Middleburg, FL

NFL CONTROVERSY
There is some opposition to radio talk show star Rush Limbaugh buying into an NFL franchise because of his provocative point of view.

"If I put my house on the market, I am required by law to sell to whoever meets the offer, even if it's the racist Rev. Wright. It's the law."
Barry Hull
Spartanburg, SC

"If this country has become so racially sensitive that someone would be denied the right to a business investment because he once dared to opine about a black quarterback, God help us."
Paul Walorski
Columbus, IN

"Maybe if Rush Limbaugh bought them, the St. Louis Rams would win a game!"
John Robison
San Antonio, TX

"For the NFL to object to Mr. Limbaugh's interest in a team is un-American."
Kevin Bass
Phoenix, AZ

"Rush doesn't have the credentials for the NFL. Were he to be convicted of cruelty to animals or death by DUI or shooting himself in the leg, the NFL would welcome him with open arms."
Joseph Quesada
Schuylkill Haven, PA

"Rush Limbaugh must be insane. Anybody who would want a financial stake in the St. Louis Rams is out of their minds."
Thom Sullivan
Auckland, New Zealand

LOSING HIS COOL?
Former Vice President Al Gore is questioned about reported mistakes in his global warming documentary. The organizers of his speech shut down the dissent by cutting the guy's mic.

"It's ironic Al Gore would speak about global warming in Madison when we've had the coldest summer on record. Temps were 10 degrees below during his visit."
Ron Miller
Madison, WI

"Al Gore can't handle the inconvenient truth."
Glen Fullerton
Rockdale, TX

"Al Gore has not answered one question in four years about global warming. He is ducking the debate, and he will be exposed as a fraud."
Cameron Bird
Austin, TX

"Methinks Al Gore doesn't care about the icy polar bear."
Eric de Verteuil
West Moorings, Trinidad

"Al Gore seems to be a big believer in free speech, as long as he is the one speaking."
Steve Henshall
Bohol, Philippines

JOURNALISM AWARD
The Medal Of Honor Society gives O'Reilly an award for looking out for the military.

"Congrats on your award from the Medal of Honor Society. You earned it unlike someone else who recently received an award."
Roy Gray
Chicago, IL

"Your comments to the military heroes brought tears to my eyes. There's security in knowing you are looking out for us."
Jim Sanford
Blair, NE

"I know you don't like to blow your own horn, but you are a patriot!"
Barry Maltese
Huntington Station, NY

"What an honor! As a Marine, I met some medal of honor winners and they are the greatest men alive."
Mark Adkins
Benton, AR

"I was waiting for Kanye West to jump out on stage, grab the mic and say Juan Williams deserved the award more than you."
Matthew Rathgeber
Bel Air, MD

MISCELLANEOUS
"My 'Patriots Welcome' doormat has arrived. I'll put it out for Halloween to repel left-wingers looking for a handout."
Lynn Coleman
Scottsdale, AZ

"Will the 'No Spin Zone' doormat also keep tornadoes away?"
Maria Schell
Lebanon, OH

Viewer Mail for Friday, October 9

2009-10-09T23:27:00Z

MAN OF PEACE?
President Obama shocks the world by winning the Nobel Peace Prize less than nine months after taking office.

"You're right. We should be proud our President won this irrelevant peace prize."
Clifford Andersen
Arvada, CO

"The award is good for America, provided the President doesn't donate the $1.4 million to ACORN."
Jim Freeman
Elkhart, IN

"President Obama doesn't deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. For crying out loud, Paris Hilton did more for world peace than he did."
Kevin Parrott
Chandler, AZ

"Just like the commodities, the Nobel Peace Prize seems to be a speculative market."
Richard Trocino
Austin, TX

"I took an 85-year-old lady out for coffee. Perhaps I'll win the peace prize next year."
Brian Malloy
San Diego, CA

"This is a discredit to the integrity of the award and a disservice to those who dedicate their lives to the betterment of the human race."
Damon Searcy
Harrison, AR

"According to you, President Obama received an honor he doesn't deserve from politically-motivated, left-leaning dopes. How is this a good thing for America?"
Marianne Gaio
West Lafayette, IN

"We have apparently become a nation of people admired by dopes like the Nobel judges. Such an affiliation can't be good for our country."
Scott Fouse
Harvest, AL

"I would recommend Gen. Petraeus or Jerry Lewis for the award. Both are far more deserving than Obama."
Philip Abraham
Las Vegas, NV

"I am shocked and amazed that Marc Lamont Hill is shocked and amazed by Obama's peace prize. He always sides with the President."
Jane Howard
Charlotte, NC

"You missed the boat on this story. It is purely political. Now Obama is going to think twice about sending more troops to Afghanistan."
Hillary Reinhold
Burlington, MA

"This is like an injured athlete who couldn't compete in the Olympics being given a gold medal because he has great potential."
Jack Brinkerhoff
Lovell, WY

"If I ever doubted Dr. Hill's intellectual integrity, he dispelled that tonight with his opinion about Obama getting the Nobel Peace Prize."
Dave Ennis
Willington, CT

"I don't think the peace prize being awarded to Obama will help the world's perception of the United States. They'll think he didn't earn it."
Erik Speaks
Mountain House, CA

EVOLUTION DEBATE
Best-selling author and atheist Richard Dawkins enters the no spin zone to present his evidence for evolution.

"Mr. Dawkins revealed his blind spot when he accused you of telling teachers what they should teach. A true scientist is not afraid to examine many explanations for natural phenomena."
Mary Elle
Oregon City, OR

"You should have reminded Richard Dawkins the theory of evolution is just that, a theory. It shouldn't be taught as fact."
Louis Wilberger
Concord, CA

"I don't mind if you get loud while making your point. Those who reprimand you for yelling are just sore they're losing the debate."
Marilyn Wirth
Effingham, IL

"You didn't debate Dawkins, you filibustered. No Christian has ever been able to define God, so you lose."
Rick Meckstroth
Vonore, TN

"Considering the morality of man and our place in the immensity of the universe, to say there is no possibility of a Supreme Creator strikes me as rather unscientific."
Paul Scales
Cincinnati, OH

"Mr. Dawkins is right! Evolution is a science, so it belongs in science class. Creationism belongs in philosophy class."
Ed Russell
North Port, FL

DUMBEST THINGS
Featuring two women fighting on a bus in Chinatown in San Francisco.

"Agreed. The video of the two ladies fighting on the bus was the stupidest thing ever!"
Elizabeth Mahoney
Plymouth, MA

"Maybe Obama can get those two ladies to have a beer together."
Randy Nations
Lebanon, TN

"The dumbest thing of the week was you, O'Reilly, saying Americans should be proud of Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize."
Thomas Miller
Ajijic, Mexico

This week's new crossword: Columbus Day Special

2009-10-09T21:00:00Z

Ol' Chris Columbus and his "day" aren't always popular in schools these days, but here at The Factor we honor his discoveries with a new crossword. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Viewer Mail for Thursday, October 8

2009-10-08T23:25:00Z

DEMOCRATIC TENSION?
Video surfaces of an uneasy interaction between Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.

"Global warming is nothing compared to Nancy Pelosi's cold shoulder."
Dave Martin
Roy, UT

"When I see Pelosi and Reid, I see a clueless Marie Antoinette and King Louis XVI in 1789. Any day now, Ms. Pelosi will roll her eyes and tell us to eat cake."
Nisa Stein
Fairfax, VA

"When I see Harry Reid put his arm around Nancy Pelosi, it reminded me of a Three Stooges skit. The only thing missing was Curley."
Bill Dobbin
Jackson, MI

"Pelosi and Reid are like Bonnie and Clyde. Ripping of the people in broad daylight and seeing nothing wrong with their actions."
Maria Fattahi
Dacula, GA

"I was reminded of Charlton Heston saying 'Getting your stinking paws off of me, you damn dirty ape!'"
Bill Rumpf
Sacramento, CA

VACCINE MANIA
Glenn Beck weighs in on the intense national hand wringing over whether to vaccinate ourselves against the swine flu.

"You said you wouldn't shake Glenn Beck's hand unless he gets the H1N1 shot. But it doesn't sound like you're so sure about the vaccination either."
James Whitlatch
The Colony, TX

"If Beck gets the swine flu and can't come on the Factor, I'm sure Chicken Little is available to substitute for him."
Charles Carradine
Austin, TX

"The new White House strategy to defeat the Taliban should be withholding the swine flu vaccine."
Robert Henricksen
Stafford, VA

"Glenn Beck is a standup guy for insisting on keeping his medical decisions private."
Michael Bolinsky
New Philadelphia, OH

"Mr. Beck doesn't like to be whipped into line by the government for anything. In the case of swine flu shots, he probably sees it as an overblown situation by bureaucrats."
George Hsieh
Walnut Creek, CA

"Why is it acceptable for nurses to be forced to take a vaccine just because we take care of sick people? Did we lose our civil rights?"
Marsha McDougall, RN
Antioch, TN

"The swine flu is killing kids in this state. It's pretty serious stuff."
Cindy Jones
Texas

"The vaccine contains a drug associated with Gulf War Syndrome. You go ahead and take it, but I will pass on this one."
Rob Tracy
Seven Valleys, PA

"Regarding mandatory swine flu shots, what if it is against one's religion to take vaccines of any kind?"
Howard LeRoy
Yuma, AZ

BAYWATCH SPOOF
A former star of Baywatch pokes fun at the nation's weight obsession.

"As an avid Baywatch viewer and a man of your mature age, I agree that a woman with a little meat on her bones is quite sexy."
Zachary Scott
Lodi, CA

"I asked my husband what he thought of the Baywatch lady's physique. I'm never asking for his honest opinion again or putting on a swimsuit."
Susan Hylton
Colfax, CA

"Nicole Eggert showed a lot of class making that Internet video of a lifeguard with a few extra pounds. We live in a thin-obsessed society."
Tex Appell
Altona, IL

PINHEAD POOCH?
Bo the first dog reportedly made a big mess on Air Force One.

"Bo did what all dogs do! I hope his owner accepted responsibility and cleaned up after him."
Carl Pavelko
Indianapolis, IN

"Obama isn't responsible for his dog's mess on Air Force One. Talk to the dog czar!"
Sheila Miller
Bremerton, WA

"The first dog was just expressing his opinion of health care. What a patriot!"
Len Lupton
Florida

"Air Force One. What has this country come to when a dog pooping on a plane is national news?"
Bud Hall
Mountain Home, AR

MISCELLANEOUS
"With winter coming soon, when will you start selling Factor snuggie blankets?"
Keenan Garrett
Bethany, OK

Bill's Latest Column: Happy Birthday, Fox News

2009-10-08T21:16:00Z

The Fox News Channel is turning 13 years old, and in his new column for this week, Bill muses on what's made the network such a resounding success all these years.

Go: Bill's latest column

New Backstage Conversation now online!

2009-10-08T02:16:00Z

Bill gives an update on which states have adopted Jessica's Law in this week's Backstage Conversation--plus we have answers to your questions... don't miss it!

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, October 7

2009-10-07T23:24:00Z

AFGHAN STRATEGY
The anti-war group Code Pink presents its strategy for victory in Afghanistan: pay people to turn their backs on the Taliban.

"Medea Benjamin thinks withdrawing troops and diverting the resources towards education will defeat the Taliban? The Taliban will blow up the schools to keep the population ignorant."
Barry Glasgow
Woodlawn, Ontario

"What planet are these people from? If we send money to the Taliban, they will use it to defeat us."
Rob Bernhard
Kane, PA

"Convincing Code Pink to wage war is equivalent of convening PETA to eat meat."
Robert Anderson
Everett, WA

"Ms. Benjamin is living in a fantasy land."
Jeff Hendrick
Grand Rapids, MI

STOLEN ELECTION?
Allegations of massive electioneering by ACORN in Minnesota lead to questions about the validity of Al Franken's Senate victory.

"Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck have been voting in Chicago for years, so why not Minnesota?"
Judy Chiapetta
Chicago, IL

"If ACORN had influence in the Minnesota election of Al Franken, could they also have influenced the presidential election?"
Hilde Heaton
Dunstable, MA

"The Governor of Minnesota should investigate whether all the people who voted for ACORN are actual voters or fakes signed up by ACORN."
Mike Ma
San Francisco, CA

"You bet there should be an investigation into ACORN's role in the election of Al Franken."
Keith Mouser
Bountiful, UT

"I would bet my paycheck Al Franken stole the election from Norm Coleman."
Steve Kapp, USAF (Ret.)
Grove, OK

"If ACORN can drum up 23,000 votes for Al Franken, I wonder how many votes they could produce for President Obama."
Mike Festa
Toms River, NJ

"We have secret ballots in America. You can investigate, but you'll never be able to find out how the people ACORN registered voted."
Mike Bernstein
Las Vegas, NV

NO STRINGS ATTACHED!
Shocking video of a British tourist bungee jumping in Thailand, ends with a broken cord and a month-long hospital stay.

"I told my friends about my plan to bungee jump off the Macau Tower. They think I'm crazy, but I think I'm bold fresh."
Charles Mejeris
Riverdale, GA

"Bungee jumping is a relatively safe activity if done from a reputable site. I've been doing it for years and I'm just fine."
Dr. Mike Winsten
Tucson, AZ

"Your fear of bungee jumping is unfounded. I've jumped twice in New Zealand. Driving home from work is more dangerous."
Dick Sheridan
San Francisco, CA

"Who paid for the bungee jumper's health care?"
Ed Rollins
Clifton, VA

"I'm an idiot for bungee jumping, yet you think swimming with sharks is A-OK? Let's do a viewer poll and ask which is dumber."
Rob Geary
Clarksville, IN

MISCELLANEOUS
"As a political science major at the University of Texas, I watch your show for tips on debating with my classmates. Thank you!"
Daniel Lopez
San Antonio, TX

"I for one think you would be great on 'Dancing with the Stars.' I have no doubt you would be the season winner."
Casey Satterly
Indianapolis, IN

Stratfor.com: Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis

2009-10-06T23:48:00Z

Two major leaks occurred this weekend over the Iran matter.

In the first, The New York Times published an article reporting that staff at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear oversight group, had produced an unreleased report saying that Iran was much more advanced in its nuclear program than the IAEA had thought previously. According to the report, Iran now has all the data needed to design a nuclear weapon. The New York Times article added that U.S. intelligence was re-examining the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of 2007, which had stated that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.

The second leak occurred in the British paper The Sunday Times, which reported that the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's highly publicized secret visit to Moscow on Sept. 7 was to provide the Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran's nuclear weapons program.

The second revelation was directly tied to the first. There were many, including STRATFOR, who felt that Iran did not have the non-nuclear disciplines needed for rapid progress toward a nuclear device. Putting the two pieces together, the presence of Russian personnel in Iran would mean that the Iranians had obtained the needed expertise from the Russians. It would also mean that the Russians were not merely a factor in whether there would be effective sanctions but also in whether and when the Iranians would obtain a nuclear weapon.

We would guess that the leak to The New York Times came from U.S. government sources, because that seems to be a prime vector of leaks from the Obama administration and because the article contained information on the NIE review. Given that National Security Adviser James Jones tended to dismiss the report on Sunday television, we would guess the report leaked from elsewhere in the administration. The Sunday Times leak could have come from multiple sources, but we have noted a tendency of the Israelis to leak through the British daily on national security issues. (The article contained substantial details on the visit and appeared written from the Israeli point of view.) Neither leak can be taken at face value, of course. But it is clear that these were deliberate leaks-people rarely risk felony charges leaking such highly classified material-and even if they were not coordinated, they delivered the same message, true or not.

The Iranian Time Frame and the Russian Role
The message was twofold. First, previous assumptions on time frames on Iran are no longer valid, and worst-case assumptions must now be assumed. The Iranians are in fact moving rapidly toward a weapon; have been extremely effective at deceiving U.S. intelligence (read, they deceived the Bush administration, but the Obama administration has figured it out); and therefore, we are moving toward a decisive moment with Iran. Second, this situation is the direct responsibility of Russian nuclear expertise. Whether this expertise came from former employees of the Russian nuclear establishment now looking for work, Russian officials assigned to Iran or unemployed scientists sent to Iran by the Russians is immaterial. The Israelis-and the Obama administration-must hold the Russians responsible for the current state of Iran's weapons program, and by extension, Moscow bears responsibility for any actions that Israel or the United States might take to solve the problem.

We would suspect that the leaks were coordinated. From the Israeli point of view, having said publicly that they are prepared to follow the American lead and allow this phase of diplomacy to play out, there clearly had to be more going on than just last week's Geneva talks. From the American point of view, while the Russians have indicated that participating in sanctions on gasoline imports by Iran is not out of the question, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev did not clearly state that Russia would cooperate, nor has anything been heard from Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on the subject. The Russian leadership appears to be playing "good cop, bad cop" on the matter, and the credibility of anything they say on Iran has little weight in Washington.

It would seem to us that the United States and Israel decided to up the ante fairly dramatically in the wake of the Oct. 1 meeting with Iran in Geneva. As IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei visits Iran, massive new urgency has now been added to the issue. But we must remember that Iran knows whether it has had help from Russian scientists; that is something that can't be bluffed. Given that this specific charge has been made-and as of Monday not challenged by Iran or Russia-indicates to us more is going on than an attempt to bluff the Iranians into concessions. Unless the two leaks together are completely bogus, and we doubt that, the United States and Israel are leaking information already well known to the Iranians. They are telling Tehran that its deception campaign has been penetrated, and by extension are telling it that it faces military action-particularly if massive sanctions are impractical because of more Russian obstruction.

If Netanyahu went to Moscow to deliver this intelligence to the Russians, the only surprise would have been the degree to which the Israelis had penetrated the program, not that the Russians were there. The Russian intelligence services are superbly competent, and keep track of stray nuclear scientists carefully. They would not be surprised by the charge, only by Israel's knowledge of it.

This, of course leaves open an enormous question. Certainly, the Russians appear to have worked with the Iranians on some security issues and have played with the idea of providing the Iranians more substantial military equipment. But deliberately aiding Iran in building a nuclear device seems beyond Russia's interests in two ways. First, while Russia wants to goad the United States, it does not itself really want a nuclear Iran. Second, in goading the United States, the Russians know not to go too far; helping Iran build a nuclear weapon would clearly cross a redline, triggering reactions.

A number of possible explanations present themselves. The leak to The Sunday Times might be wrong. But The Sunday Times is not a careless newspaper: It accepts leaks only from certified sources. The Russian scientists might be private citizens accepting Iranian employment. But while this is possible, Moscow is very careful about what Russian nuclear engineers do with their time. Or the Russians might be providing enough help to goad the United States but not enough to ever complete the job. Whatever the explanation, the leaks paint the Russians as more reckless than they have appeared, assuming the leaks are true.

And whatever their veracity, the leaks-the content of which clearly was discussed in detail among the P-5+1 prior to and during the Geneva meetings, regardless of how long they have been known by Western intelligence-were made for two reasons. The first was to tell the Iranians that the nuclear situation is now about to get out of hand, and that attempting to manage the negotiations through endless delays will fail because the United Nations is aware of just how far Tehran has come with its weapons program. The second was to tell Moscow that the issue is no longer whether the Russians will cooperate on sanctions, but the consequence to Russia's relations with the United States and at least the United Kingdom, France and, most important, possibly Germany. If these leaks are true, they are game changers.

We have focused on the Iranian situation not because it is significant in itself, but because it touches on a great number of other crucial international issues. It is now entangled in the Iraqi, Afghan, Israeli, Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese issues, all of them high-stakes matters. It is entangled in Russian relations with Europe and the United States. It is entangled in U.S.-European relationships and with relationships within Europe. It touches on the U.S.-Chinese relationship. It even touches on U.S. relations with Venezuela and some other Latin American countries. It is becoming the Gordian knot of international relations.

STRATFOR first focused on the Russian connection with Iran in the wake of the Iranian elections and resulting unrest, when a crowd of Rafsanjani supporters began chanting "Death to Russia," not one of the top-10 chants in Iran. That caused us to focus on the cooperation between Russia and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on security matters. We were aware of some degree of technical cooperation on military hardware, and of course on Russian involvement in Iran's civilian nuclear program. We were also of the view that the Iranians were unlikely to progress quickly with their nuclear program. We were not aware that Russian scientists were directly involved in Iran's military nuclear project, which is not surprising, given that such involvement would be Iran's single-most important state secret-and Russia's, too.

A Question of Timing
But there is a mystery here as well. To have any impact, the Russian involvement must have been under way for years. The United States has tried to track rogue nuclear scientists and engineers-anyone who could contribute to nuclear proliferation-since the 1990s. The Israelis must have had their own program on this, too. Both countries, as well as European intelligence services, were focused on Iran's program and the whereabouts of Russian scientists. It is hard to believe that they only just now found out. If we were to guess, we would say Russian involvement has been under way since just after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, when the Russians decided that the United States was a direct threat to its national security.

Therefore, the decision suddenly to confront the Russians, and suddenly to leak U.N. reports-much more valuable than U.S. reports, which are easier for the Europeans to ignore-cannot simply be because the United States and Israel just obtained this information. The IAEA, hostile to the United States since the invasion of Iraq and very much under the influence of the Europeans, must have decided to shift its evaluation of Iran. But far more significant is the willingness of the Israelis first to confront the Russians and then leak about Russian involvement, something that obviously compromises Israeli sources and methods. And that means the Israelis no longer consider the preservation of their intelligence operation in Iran (or wherever it was carried out) as of the essence.

Two conclusions can be drawn. First, the Israelis no longer need to add to their knowledge of Russian involvement; they know what they need to know. And second, the Israelis do not expect Iranian development to continue much longer; otherwise, maintaining the intelligence capability would take precedence over anything else.

It follows from this that the use of this intelligence in diplomatic confrontations with Russians and in a British newspaper serves a greater purpose than the integrity of the source system. And that means that the Israelis expect a resolution in the very near future-the only reason they would have blown their penetration of the Russian-Iranian system.

Possible Outcomes
There are two possible outcomes here. The first is that having revealed the extent of the Iranian program and having revealed the Russian role in a credible British newspaper, the Israelis and the Americans (whose own leak in The New York Times underlined the growing urgency of action) are hoping that the Iranians realize that they are facing war and that the Russians realize that they are facing a massive crisis in their relations with the West. If that happens, then the Russians might pull their scientists and engineers, join in the sanctions and force the Iranians to abandon their program.

The second possibility is that the Russians will continue to play the spoiler on sanctions and will insist that they are not giving support to the Iranians. This leaves the military option, which would mean broad-based action, primarily by the United States, against Iran's nuclear facilities. Any military operation would involve keeping the Strait of Hormuz clear, meaning naval action, and we now know that there are more nuclear facilities than previously discussed. So while the war for the most part would be confined to the air and sea, it would be extensive nonetheless.

Sanctions or war remain the two options, and which one is chosen depends on Moscow's actions. The leaks this weekend have made clear that the United States and Israel have positioned themselves such that not much time remains. We have now moved from a view of Iran as a long-term threat to Iran as a much more immediate threat thanks to the Russians.

The least that can be said about this is that the Obama administration and Israel are trying to reshape the negotiations with the Iranians and Russians. The most that can be said is that the Americans and Israelis are preparing the public for war. Polls now indicate that more than 60 percent of the U.S. public now favors military action against Iran. From a political point of view, it has become easier for U.S. President Barack Obama to act than to not act. This, too, is being transmitted to the Iranians and Russians.

It is not clear to us that the Russians or Iranians are getting the message yet. They have convinced themselves that Obama is unlikely to act because he is weak at home and already has too many issues to juggle. This is a case where a reputation for being conciliatory actually increases the chances for war. But the leaks this weekend have strikingly limited the options and timelines of the United States and Israel. They also have put the spotlight on Obama at a time when he already is struggling with health care and Afghanistan. History is rarely considerate of presidential plans, and in this case, the leaks have started to force Obama's hand.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

Click here to take advantage of 50% OFF regular subscription rates - offered exclusively for BillOReilly.com readers.

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, October 6

2009-10-06T23:22:00Z

ACORN OVERLOAD?
Reports that the ACORN embezzelement scandal was much larger than previously thought. But is the Factor focusing too much attention on the embattled community group?

"A deceptive, mischievous organization committing fraud is a serious matter. This is not a foofaraw."
Kevin Cassidy
Omaha, NE

"You are not overdoing the ACORN story. This is a business, which receives taxpayer dollars, caught on tape propagating child prostitution and tax evasion."
Jim Sullivan
Santa Rosa Beach, FL

"It is the conduct of ACORN - stealing elections and such - that will finally cause Americans to actively revolt."
Don Bramlett
Waynesville, NC

"ACORN professes its innocence. Yet they're suing whistleblowers who exposed their fraudulent dealings. If this was a legit organization, they'd be thanking the whistleblowers."
Sam Gill
Kansas City, MO

"I believe ACORN is, as my grandfather would say, as phony as a three dollar bill. Keep up the good work."
Susan Atiyyat
Glen Burnie, MD

"You seem to be obsessed with ACORN. Eric Holder should be investigating more important things, like war crimes, torture and Halliburton."
Yvette Soberanez
Casper, WY

"Keep hammering ACORN. The left wouldn't be complaining if it didn't have something to hide."
William Riggieri
Worcester, MA

"ACORN should not be taken lightly. If a corrupt organization can affect the balance of power, our republic is lost."
Tom Pengilly
Visalia, CA

MONEY MATTERS
Neil Cavuto explains why America can't afford Obama's health care reform and other expensive agenda items.

"My family can't afford the prohibitive cost of health insurance. I'm disappointed to hear you say you think Obama should bail on reform."
Jack Redding
Gerrardstown, WV

"Maybe we should have elected Tony Soprano as President. At least he understood how to make a buck, not spend it."
Robert Levy
Vernon, NJ

"President Obama is dangerous to this once-great country. He wants to transform us into a socialist society."
Jeff Rowan
Connellsville, PA

"Tonight you asked Cavuto if he thought President Obama was incompetent. Are you kidding? It shows in every decision he makes and everything he does."
Paul Amedee
Kenner, LA

"Cavuto referred to Obama's plans as redistribution of wealth. More like redistribution of poverty."
Jim Morris
Charlotte, NC

GOODBYE DUI!
A judge grants actor Mel Gibson's request to have his infamous DUI expunged from his permanent record.

"I don't recall an outcry of support from celebrities requesting Mel Gibson's DUI be expunged. No special treatment like Roman Polanski?"
Keenan Garrett
Bethany, OK

"How can you say Mel Gibson is a decent guy when he made anti-Semitic comments?"
Norman Sherran
Scarsdale, NY

"I don't see how cleaning the record will make much of a difference. The DUI episode was so well-publicized, it will always haunt him."
Tom Sedgwick
Olympia, WA

PINHEAD ROBOT!
A singing Japanese robot doesn't have the greatest voice the Factor has ever heard.

"Shame on you for naming a robot a pinhead. She is an important cultural icon. Robots need love too."
Chris Belknap
Elizabethtown, KY

"The clip of the singing robot was great. My Chihuahua was mesmerized."
Gail McMurtrey
Alliance, NE

"Please no more Japanese singing robots. You're scaring my cat."
Marianna Smith
Fullerton, CA

"A robot cannot be a pinhead, only a ping-head."
Steven Vinitsky
Angeles City, Philippines

Viewer Mail for Monday, October 5

2009-10-05T23:36:00Z

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-10-05T21:18:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was down nearly a point to 4.87 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 5.71 out of 10. See if you can stop the bleeding and improve that score this week!

Go: This week's O'Quiz

This week's new crossword: That Toddlin' Town

2009-10-02T21:14:00Z

Chicago didn't win its bid for the 2016 Olympics, but the Windy City is # 1 in this week's crossword. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Viewer Mail for Thursday, October 1

2009-10-01T22:24:00Z

HEALTH INCENTIVES?
The Senate Finance Committee passes a health care amendment that would reward people with healthy lifestyles, while penalizing smokers and obese Americans with higher insurance premiums.

"There's nothing wrong with discouraging lifestyle choices through taxation. I think smokers and overeaters should pay more for health care."
Jackson Sweeney
Ann Arbor, MI

"If we are going to tax those who live 'unhealthy' lives, then those who don't have high school educations and good jobs with health care should pay higher taxes as well. Why should I pay for lazy people?"
Chuck Hodge
Harrison Township, MI

"Many people who are considered obese are struggling with real problems like eating addiction and depression. Paying her pound grossly ignores unique solutions."
Jessica Keller
Baltimore, MD

"How can the Obama administration force insurance companies to charge more for being overweight? Isn't that a pre-existing condition?"
Jim Mathias
Peoria, AZ

"I'm doing everything I can to keep my weight under control. Why should I have to pay more?"
Lana Badouin
China, CA

"Is the government now dictating who we select as our ancestors? I'm not overweight, but diabetes runs in my family. Should I have to pay a penalty for my medical condition?"
Mary Billingslea
Centennial, CO

"Congress has decided it will punish smokers and overweight people by penalizing them for poor choices. Will Congress also punish promiscuous people who develop STDs?"
Krys Crouch
Glen Ellyn, IL

"Why don't insurance companies just offer discounts to people who are in good health, as opposed to penalizing those in poor health? Seems like a win-win."
David Perkins
Morris, IL

"Eating poorly and smoking are as irresponsible as driving drunk. It's basic science. You can do what you want, but not at my expense."
Randi Becker Walls
Dayton, OH

NO SEX POLICY?
The Culture Warriors tackle a new Tufts University policy that forbids students from having sex in their dorms while their roommates are present.

"My daughter graduated from Tufts in 2006. From what she told me about her roommate's sexual escapades, I wish the new handbook had been in place when she was there."
Caren Steinberg
Camarillo, CA

"It's not that kids today don't know it's rude to have sex in front of another person. They just don't care. They have no respect for themselves or others."
Virginia Connolly
Pinellas Park, FL

"For college students, sex is no longer an act of intimacy, it's just an activity."
Sara Dawson
Des Moines, IA

"I understand that college students may be having more sex than in my day, but if your kid is having sex in front of his or her roommate, you are wasting your money with college tuition."
Jan Tracy
Manorville, NY

"As a college student, I believe most people have the decency to display manners in this type of situation."
Trent Gerbers
North Manchester, IN

CELEBRATING COMMUNISM
The Empire State Building in NYC was lit in yellow and red to commemorate the 60th anniversary of communist rule in China.

"The Empire State Building celebrating 60 years of communist China is just another example of how this country continues to set aside the principles on which it was founded."
Debra Wills
Mills River, NC

"The Chinese most likely own the Empire State Building."
John Diaz
Venice, CA

"It's always a good idea to keep the landlord happy."
Carrie Brown
White City, OR

"The Empire State Building celebrating Chinese communism? What next? A holiday to honor Chairman Mao's birthday?"
Juan Mendoza
Boise, ID

"So some dope likes to honor the Reds. The Empire State Building doesn't speak for the city, state or country."
Rick Wagner
Reading, PA

DUMBEST THING
One of the dumbest things of the week was when Whoopi Goldberg, co-host of 'The View,' said Roman Polanski was not charged with 'rape rape.'

"Thanks for sticking up for abused women. Rape is rape, regardless of what Whoopi Goldberg says. You have the moral courage and decency she lacks."
Judy Arnold
Waterbury, CT

"I would like to hear Whoopi Goldberg explain why she thinks the forceful rape of a drugged 13-year-old girl pleading with her perpetrator to stop is not 'rape rape.'"
Ivan Satori
Kingston, Ontario

"If plying a young girl with alcohol and drugs, then having sex with her isn't rape, then Whoopi Goldberg needs a brain."
Joe Viera
Glendale, AZ

"I'm a middle school teacher and Whoopi is wrong. Intoxication notwithstanding, there is no way a 13-year-old can consent to sex with an adult."
Michael Burgess
Denton, TX

Bill's Latest Column: President Obama and the Far Left

2009-10-01T19:39:00Z

In his new column this week, Bill examines President Obama's increasingly liberal lean and muses about what could happen if he doesn't start to temper his decisions.

Go: Bill's latest column

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, September 30

2009-09-30T23:18:00Z

FAR-LEFT INFLUENCE
He's waffling on Afghanistan, he's moving to the left on health care, he's apathetic about the ACORN controversy - just how much control does the far-left have over President Obama?

"Obama doesn't just listen to the far-left liberals, he was created by them and for them. How else can a community organizer reach the presidency in four short years?"
Michael Roberti
Sarasota, FL

"Obama ran as a centrist to get elected, but he was always far-left. It is not a task for him to please them."
Linda King
Worthington, OH

OLYMPIC BID
Why are some conservatives so upset about Obama's attempts to get the 2016 Olympics in Chicago?

"Chicago has the worst schools in the nation. If they love the city so much, Obama and Oprah should care more about those kids than about the Olympics."
Dawn Sherman
Sunbury, PA

"I'm wondering if the Olympics aren't awarded to Chicago after Obama grovels, is the Olympic Committee going to be accused of racism?"
Carlos Lopez
Marietta, GA

"Obama isn't trying to get the Olympic bid for the good of the country, but as payback for his lobbyist friends in Chicago."
Gene Hebert
Dayton, NV

"With our present economy, it's tough to justify the expense of flying over to Denmark for something as frivolous as the Olympics."
Joan Ryan
Stamford, CT

"The issue is not whether Obama can work on Air Force One or not. The issue is petitioning for the Olympics is hypocritical at best, corruptible at worst."
Brad Wikholm
Simpsonville, SC

"It's easy for you to say this is no big deal - you don't live in Illinois! You won't be paying to build the Olympic facility."
Basil Rauch
Fairbury, IL

"You're missing the point. Why should the taxpayer foot the bill for two flights over to Cohenhagen?"
David K. Wright
Collinsville, IL

"I almost rolled off the couch when you and Ann Coulter said you want the Olympics in Chicago in 2016. I don't want my tax dollars going to build an Olympic Village."
Vada Rieflin
Doniphan, NE

AT IT AGAIN
With news of Sarah Palin's book bringing her back into the spotlight, David Letterman and others are mocking her all over again.

"Why did Dennis Miller have to take a shot at Sarah Palin and say she's not a genius? It was a low blow."
Mary Willemse
Whitehall, MI

"I will buy Sarah Palin's book simply to support her, regardless of whether it's a good read or not."
Bob McAdams
Coeur d'Alene, ID

"I believe Sarah Palin could write a plain-talk health care plan that I could understand."
Travis Buchanan
Marion, NC

"They more they discredit Sarah Palin, the more I like her. Keep it up, David Letterman!"
David Barber
Lafayette, LA

"I bought Palin's book because I'm interested in what she has to say about the last 18 months in American politics. I also want to give Letterman a little angst."
Sharron Flynn
Sacramento, CA

"What does the third grader do to the girl he has a crush on? He pulls her pigtails and throws mud at her. Sounds like Letterman's treatment of Sarah Palin."
Candace Cummings
Bakersfield, CA

"I wish Letterman's jokes could be more fair and balanced. His Palin jokes are getting old."
Seth Voigt
Waterloo, IA

"The thought of Sarah Palin becoming President if McCain took ill was very disconcerting to most Americans during the 2008 election."
Michael Ellis
Newburgh, NY

"I respect Sarah Palin's values and could care less what Letterman and Saturday Night Live say about her."
Stephen Irvin
Shasta Lake, CA

POLITICAL PINHEAD
Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson takes to the House floor and says Republicans' health care plan wants Americans to "die quickly."

"Rep. Grayson's comments are proof positive that there is a limit on intelligence, but no limit on stupidity."
Timothy Messer
Queen Creek, AZ

"Mr. Grayson is such a nut job he probably believes his own lies. Since he won't do it himself, I apologize to the nation on his behalf."
Doug Manuchia
Winter Park, FL

"Alan Grayson's comments were so far over the top, we need a new category for him. Pinhead doesn't go far enough."
Jim Speece
Hahira, GA

MISCELLANEOUS
"My wife wanted to buy me 'Bold Fresh' for Christmas. I told her if she buys me the book, I'll buy her a diamond necklace."
Ron Yeager
Mesa, AZ

FAR-LEFT INFLUENCE
He's waffling on Afghanistan, he's moving to the left on health care, he's apathetic about the ACORN controversy - just how much control does the far-left have over President Obama?
"Obama doesn't just listen to the far-left liberals, he was created by them and for them. How else can a community organizer reach the presidency in four short years?"
Michael Roberti
Sarasota, FL

"Obama ran as a centrist to get elected, but he was always far-left. It is not a task for him to please them."
Linda King
Worthington, OH

OLYMPIC BID
Why are some conservatives so upset about Obama's attempts to get the 2016 Olympics in Chicago?
"Chicago has the worst schools in the nation. If they love the city so much, Obama and Oprah should care more about those kids than about the Olympics."
Dawn Sherman
Sunbury, PA

"I'm wondering if the Olympics aren't awarded to Chicago after Obama grovels, is the Olympic Committee going to be accused of racism?"
Carlos Lopez
Marietta, GA

"Obama isn't trying to get the Olympic bid for the good of the country, but as payback for his lobbyist friends in Chicago."
Gene Hebert
Dayton, NV

"With our present economy, it's tough to justify the expense of flying over to Denmark for something as frivolous as the Olympics."
Joan Ryan
Stamford, CT

"The issue is not whether Obama can work on Air Force One or not. The issue is petitioning for the Olympics is hypocritical at best, corruptible at worst."
Brad Wikholm
Simpsonville, SC

"It's easy for you to say this is no big deal - you don't live in Illinois! You won't be paying to build the Olympic facility."
Basil Rauch
Fairbury, IL

"You're missing the point. Why should the taxpayer foot the bill for two flights over to Cohenhagen?"
David K. Wright
Collinsville, IL

"I almost rolled off the couch when you and Ann Coulter said you want the Olympics in Chicago in 2016. I don't want my tax dollars going to build an Olympic Village."
Vada Rieflin
Doniphan, NE

AT IT AGAIN
With news of Sarah Palin's book bringing her back into the spotlight, David Letterman and others are mocking her all over again.
"Why did Dennis Miller have to take a shot at Sarah Palin and say she's not a genius? It was a low blow."
Mary Willemse
Whitehall, MI

"I will buy Sarah Palin's book simply to support her, regardless of whether it's a good read or not."
Bob McAdams
Coeur d'Alene, ID

"I believe Sarah Palin could write a plain-talk health care plan that I could understand."
Travis Buchanan
Marion, NC

"They more they discredit Sarah Palin, the more I like her. Keep it up, David Letterman!"
David Barber
Lafayette, LA

"I bought Palin's book because I'm interested in what she has to say about the last 18 months in American politics. I also want to give Letterman a little angst."
Sharron Flynn
Sacramento, CA

"What does the third grader do to the girl he has a crush on? He pulls her pigtails and throws mud at her. Sounds like Letterman's treatment of Sarah Palin."
Candace Cummings
Bakersfield, CA

"I wish Letterman's jokes could be more fair and balanced. His Palin jokes are getting old."
Seth Voigt
Waterloo, IA

"The thought of Sarah Palin becoming President if McCain took ill was very disconcerting to most Americans during the 2008 election."
Michael Ellis
Newburgh, NY

"I respect Sarah Palin's values and could care less what Letterman and Saturday Night Live say about her."
Stephen Irvin
Shasta Lake, CA

POLITICAL PINHEAD
Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson takes to the House floor and says Republicans' health care plan wants Americans to "die quickly."
"Rep. Grayson's comments are proof positive that there is a limit on intelligence, but no limit on stupidity."
Timothy Messer
Queen Creek, AZ

"Mr. Grayson is such a nut job he probably believes his own lies. Since he won't do it himself, I apologize to the nation on his behalf."
Doug Manuchia
Winter Park, FL

"Alan Grayson's comments were so far over the top, we need a new category for him. Pinhead doesn't go far enough."
Jim Speece
Hahira, GA

MISCELLANEOUS
"My wife wanted to buy me 'Bold Fresh' for Christmas. I told her if she buys me the book, I'll buy her a diamond necklace."
Ron Yeager
Mesa, AZ

New Backstage Conversation now online!

2009-09-30T22:35:00Z

A Premium Member asks Bill about upcoming visits to the Middle East--don't miss Bill's answer to this question and many more in this week's Backstage Conversation!

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

Stratfor.com: Obama's Move: Iran and Afghanistan

2009-09-30T20:55:00Z

During the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign, now-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said that like all U.S. presidents, Barack Obama would face a foreign policy test early in his presidency if elected. That test is now here.

His test comprises two apparently distinct challenges, one in Afghanistan and one in Iran. While different problems, they have three elements in common. First, they involve the question of his administration's overarching strategy in the Islamic world. Second, the problems are approaching decision points (and making no decision represents a decision here). And third, they are playing out very differently than Obama expected during the 2008 campaign.

During the campaign, Obama portrayed the Iraq war as a massive mistake diverting the United States from Afghanistan, the true center of the "war on terror." He accordingly promised to shift the focus away from Iraq and back to Afghanistan. Obama's views on Iran were more amorphous. He supported the doctrine that Iran should not be permitted to obtain nuclear weapons, while at the same time asserted that engaging Iran was both possible and desirable. Embedded in the famous argument over whether offering talks without preconditions was appropriate (something now-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attacked him for during the Democratic primary) was the idea that the problem with Iran stemmed from Washington's refusal to engage in talks with Tehran.

We are never impressed with campaign positions, or with the failure of the victorious candidate to live up to them. That's the way American politics work. But in this case, these promises have created a dual crisis that Obama must make decisions about now.

Iran
Back in April, in the midst of the financial crisis, Obama reached an agreement at the G-8 meeting that the Iranians would have until Sept. 24 and the G-20 meeting to engage in meaningful talks with the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany (P-5+1) or face intensely increased sanctions. His administration was quite new at the time, so the amount of thought behind this remains unclear. On one level, the financial crisis was so intense and September so far away that Obama and his team probably saw this as a means to delay a secondary matter while more important fires were flaring up.

But there was more operating than that. Obama intended to try to bridge the gap between the Islamic world and the United States between April and September. In his speech to the Islamic world from Cairo, he planned to show a desire not only to find common ground, but also to acknowledge shortcomings in U.S. policy in the region. With the appointment of special envoys George Mitchell (for Israel and the Palestinian territories) and Richard Holbrooke (for Pakistan and Afghanistan), Obama sought to build on his opening to the Islamic world with intense diplomatic activity designed to reshape regional relationships.

It can be argued that the Islamic masses responded positively to Obama's opening-it has been asserted to be so and we will accept this-but the diplomatic mission did not solve the core problem. Mitchell could not get the Israelis to move on the settlement issue, and while Holbrooke appears to have made some headway on increasing Pakistan's aggressiveness toward the Taliban, no fundamental shift has occurred in the Afghan war.

Most important, no major shift has occurred in Iran's attitude toward the United States and the P-5+1 negotiating group. In spite of Obama's Persian New Year address to Iran, the Iranians did not change their attitude toward the United States. The unrest following Iran's contested June presidential election actually hardened the Iranian position. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remained president with the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while the so-called moderates seemed powerless to influence their position. Perceptions that the West supported the demonstrations have strengthened Ahmadinejad's hand further, allowing him to paint his critics as pro-Western and himself as an Iranian nationalist.

But with September drawing to a close, talks have still not begun. Instead, they will begin Oct. 1. And last week, the Iranians chose to announce that not only will they continue work on their nuclear program (which they claim is not for military purposes), they have a second, hardened uranium enrichment facility near Qom. After that announcement, Obama, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy held a press conference saying they have known about the tunnel for several months, and warned of stern consequences.

This, of course, raises the question of what consequences. Obama has three choices in this regard.

First, he can impose crippling sanctions against Iran. But that is possible only if the Russians cooperate. Moscow has the rolling stock and reserves to supply all of Iran's fuel needs if it so chooses, and Beijing can also remedy any Iranian fuel shortages. Both Russia and China have said they don't want sanctions; without them on board, sanctions are meaningless.

Second, Obama can take military action against Iran, something easier politically and diplomatically for the United States to do itself rather than rely on Israel. By itself, Israel cannot achieve air superiority, suppress air defenses, attack the necessary number of sites and attempt to neutralize Iranian mine-laying and anti-ship capability all along the Persian Gulf. Moreover, if Israel struck on its own and Iran responded by mining the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would be drawn into at least a naval war with Iran-and probably would have to complete the Israeli airstrikes, too.

And third, Obama could choose to do nothing (or engage in sanctions that would be the equivalent of doing nothing). Washington could see future Iranian nuclear weapons as an acceptable risk. But the Israelis don't, meaning they would likely trigger the second scenario. It is possible that the United States could try to compel Israel not to strike-though it's not clear whether Israel would comply-something that would leave Obama publicly accepting Iran's nuclear program.

And this, of course, would jeopardize Obama's credibility. It is possible for the French or Germans to waffle on this issue; no one is looking to them for leadership. But for Obama simply to acquiesce to Iranian nuclear weapons, especially at this point, would have significant diplomatic and domestic political ramifications.

Simply put, Obama would look weak-and that, of course, is why the Iranians announced the second nuclear site. They read Obama as weak, and they want to demonstrate their own resolve. That way, if the Russians were thinking of cooperating with the United States on sanctions, Moscow would be seen as backing the weak player against the strong one. The third option, doing nothing, therefore actually represents a significant action.

Afghanistan
In a way, the same issue is at stake in Afghanistan. Having labeled Afghanistan as critical-indeed, having campaigned on the platform that the Bush administration was fighting the wrong war-it would be difficult for Obama to back down in Afghanistan. At the same time, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, has reported that without a new strategy and a substantial increase in troop numbers, failure in Afghanistan is likely.

The number of troops being discussed, 30,000-40,000, would bring total U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan to just above the number of troops the Soviet Union deployed there in its war (just under 120,000)-a war that ended in failure. The new strategy being advocated would be one in which the focus would not be on the defeat of the Taliban by force of arms, but the creation of havens for the Afghan people and protecting those havens from the Taliban.

A move to the defensive when time is on your side is not an unreasonable strategy. But it is not clear that time is on Western forces' side. Increased offensives are not weakening the Taliban. But halting attacks and assuming that the Taliban will oblige the West by moving to the offensive, thereby opening itself to air and artillery strikes, probably is not going to happen. And while assuming that the country will effectively rise against the Taliban out of the protected zones the United States has created is interesting, it does not strike us as likely. The Taliban is fighting the long war because it has nowhere else to go. Its ability to maintain military and political cohesion following the 2001 invasion has been remarkable. And betting that the Pakistanis will be effective enough to break the Taliban's supply lines is hardly the most prudent bet.

In short, Obama's commander on the ground has told him the current Afghan strategy is failing. He has said that unless that strategy changes, more troops won't help, and that a change of strategy will require substantially more troops. But when we look at the proposed strategy and the force levels, it is far from obvious that even that level of commitment will stand a chance of achieving meaningful results quickly enough before the forces of Washington's NATO allies begin to withdraw and U.S. domestic resolve erodes further.

Obama has three choices in Afghanistan. He can continue to current strategy and force level, hoping to prolong failure long enough for some undefined force to intervene. He can follow McChrystal's advice and bet on the new strategy. Or he can withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan. Once again, doing nothing-the first option-is doing something quite significant.

The Two Challenges Come Together
The two crises intermingle in this way: Every president is tested in foreign policy, sometimes by design and sometimes by circumstance. Frequently, this happens at the beginning of his term as a result of some problem left by his predecessor, a strategy adopted in the campaign or a deliberate action by an antagonist. How this happens isn't important. What is important is that Obama's test is here. Obama at least publicly approached the presidency as if many of the problems the United States faced were due to misunderstandings about or the thoughtlessness of the United States. Whether this was correct is less important than that it left Obama appearing eager to accommodate his adversaries rather than confront them.

No one has a clear idea of Obama's threshold for action.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban takes the view that the British and Russians left, and that the Americans will leave, too. We strongly doubt that the force level proposed by McChrystal will be enough to change their minds. Moreover, U.S. forces are limited, with many still engaged in Iraq. In any case, it isn't clear what force level would suffice to force the Taliban to negotiate or capitulate-and we strongly doubt that there is a level practical to contemplate.

In Iran, Ahmadinejad clearly perceives that challenging Obama is low-risk and high reward. If he can finally demonstrate that the United States is unwilling to take military action regardless of provocations, his own domestic situation improves dramatically, his relationship with the Russians deepens, and most important, his regional influence-and menace-surges. If Obama accepts Iranian nukes without serious sanctions or military actions, the American position in the Islamic world will decline dramatically. The Arab states in the region rely on the United States to protect them from Iran, so U.S. acquiescence in the face of Iranian nuclear weapons would reshape U.S. relations in the region far more than a hundred Cairo speeches.

There are four permutations Obama might choose in response to the dual crisis. He could attack Iran and increase forces in Afghanistan, but he might well wind up stuck in a long-term war in Afghanistan. He could avoid that long-term war by withdrawing from Afghanistan and also ignore Iran's program, but that would leave many regimes reliant on the United States for defense against Iran in the lurch. He could increase forces in Afghanistan and ignore Iran-probably yielding the worst of all possible outcomes, namely, a long-term Afghan war and an Iran with a nuclear program if not nuclear weapons.

On pure logic, history or politics aside, the best course is to strike Iran and withdraw from Afghanistan. That would demonstrate will in the face of a significant challenge while perhaps reshaping Iran and certainly avoiding a drawn-out war in Afghanistan. Of course, it is easy for those who lack power and responsibility-and the need to govern-to provide logical choices. But the forces closing in on Obama are substantial, and there are many competing considerations in play.

Presidents eventually arrive at the point where something must be done, and where doing nothing is very much doing something. At this point, decisions can no longer be postponed, and each choice involves significant risk. Obama has reached that point, and significantly, in his case, he faces a double choice. And any decision he makes will reverberate.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

Click here to take advantage of 50% OFF regular subscription rates - offered exclusively for BillOReilly.com readers.

Factor Words of the Day

2009-09-30T01:40:00Z

Did you know that we have a growing collection of the Factor's favorite words of the day? It's true... check it out!

Go: Factor Vocabulary List

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, September 29

2009-09-29T23:17:00Z

LIBERAL 1-2 PUNCH
With the media and public schools dominated by liberal messages, is there any chance America's youth won't take the country in a secular-progressive direction?

"I take issue with your stats on liberalism in teaching. My wife is a teacher and a conservative, as is true with many teachers here in Texas. Teachers unions are not strong here in the South."
Justin Case
Spring, TX

"I am a retired teacher. I vote Democrat in local elections, but Republican in national elections. Most of the educators I know are conservative."
Judy Hughes
Scottsboro, AL

"I'm a high school senior and have noticed an increase in liberal politics being supported in our school. Aren't public educators supposed to be neutral?"
Jimmy Bushnell
Colorado Springs, CO

"As a conservative teacher, I think the tide would turn if forced unionization became a thing of the past."
Mike Cummings
Lima, OH

"Teachers support indoctrinating our kids because they too were indoctrinated into liberalism in their schools. They probably don't even realize what they're doing."
Lynne Burkie
Campbell, CA

"Going through high school, almost every one of my teachers was liberal and brought politics into the classroom. This is a big problem."
Kyle Steininger
Peoria, IL

"No wonder Obama wants students to be in school year-round, morning to night. This will mean more time with left-wing teachers and less time with their parents."
Raymond Blackman
Valparaiso, NE

"If Democrats support education more than Republicans, why don't liberals support school vouchers for poor, intercity children in failing public schools?"
Grace Hoffmann
Waterloo, IL

"In my experience as a fourth grade teacher, I can honestly say I've met as many conservatives as liberals in the school system."
Lindsey Alspaugh
Winston-Salem, NC

OLYMPIC BID
Some controversy surrounding President Obama's decision to fly to Denmark to try to convince the Olympic Committee to hold the 2016 event in his hometown of Chicago.

"Obama's trip to Denmark is window-dressing and unnecessary. The 2016 Olympics will be in Chicago. Obama will return triumphant and hope his popularity rises."
Jim Baudhuin
New Berlin, WI

"President Obama needs to be concentrating on more important things and spending his time at the White House."
Ed Dempsey
Delaware, OH

"I guarantee we've got the Olympics in the bag. President Obama would never stake his capital on this trip if he hadn't already received a back-channel affirmative message."
Kathy Pearse
Hinsdale, IL

"I have a problem with President Obama endorsing Chicago for the Olympics because if it were any other city, he would not be involved."
Mike Mack
Sea Cliff, NY

"President Obama should have higher priorities than pushing for the Olympics in Chicago. For example, he should be communicating more with his commander in Afghanistan."
Jim Farina
Wickenburg, AZ

"President Obama is doing the right thing by trying to get the Olympics in Chicago. He'll probably get more done on the plane ride over to Denmark than sitting in an office at the White House."
Capt. Chad Johnson, USAF
Woodbridge, VA

MISCELLANEOUS
"It was a great day at SAFECO Field in Seattle. We traveled from Vancouver to see Glenn Beck."
Carol Eaton
Vancouver, WA

"I'm appalled at President Obama's disregard for the importance of putting more troops in Afghanistan. My son is headed over there and inadequate troops will put him at even greater risk."
Libbie Triche
Deville, LA

"'Bold Fresh' was boldly refreshing."
Jeremy Bert
Deming, WA

"My favorite book is 'Pride and Prejudice' and I read it once a year. After reading 'Bold Fresh' it ranks right up there and may became an annual deal for me as well."
Rosemary Rentz
Hazleton, PA

"There's a bold fresh man named Bill,
Whose Factor provides us a thrill.
Some say he's pugnacious,
But I think he's perspicacious!"
Kathy Halladay
Wallingford, PA

Viewer Mail for Monday, September 28

2009-09-28T23:15:00Z

NO SPIN INTERVIEW WITH JOHN MCCAIN
"John McCain was right about the surge in Iraq. I can't help but thinking we were so close to getting the right man in the White House."
Edward Pon
West Harrison, NY

"In your online poll, I voted John McCain would have been a better president than Obama. After seeing him on your show tonight, I change my vote."
Ken Larsen
Montello, NV

"John McCain was all double talk when discussing whether the military option should be on the table with Iran."
Dusty Buchmann
Renton, WA

"Sen. McCain has no credibility. He never takes a stand on anything. His answers are so political."
Brian Lovse
Austin, TX

JUSTICE AT LAST?
After 32 years on the lamb, director Roman Polanski is arrested in Switzerland on child sex charges.

"When Roman Polanski violated society's laws by fleeing the country, we all became his victims. He violated the law every day he spent in unlawful flight to avoid prosecution."
Jack Azevedo
Santa Clara, CA

"While it's admirable that Polanski's victim forgives him, victims don't have the power to set criminal penalties."
Leonard Jean
Melbourne, FL

"Roman Polanski must serve his sentence regardless of how much time has passed."
Jesus Alvarez
Albuquerque, NM

"The victim in the Polanski case was 13 years old when the rape took place. It is irrelevant what she says at her current age. It's no longer about her."
Kevin Linke
Albuquerque, NM

"If the case were dropped, it would send the message that any criminal after conviction could flee the country and if you're a fugitive long enough, you're off the hook."
Frank Plunkett
Cherry Hill, NJ

"This is about showing Polanski, and the world, that America is a nation of laws and no single person, no matter how famous, is above those laws."
Matthew Bernstein
Massapequa Park, NY

CURSES!
Reality check takes a look at a new player on Saturday Night Live dropping the F-bomb during a very unfunny skit.

"I liked Saturday Night Live better when it was a comedy."
Mike Kimmel
Dallas, TX

"Thought nobody caught the SNL oops in that skit - glad to see your folks did. Great job, Fox News!"
Mike Bamer
Cedar Park, TX

VAST RIGHT-WING CONSPIRACY
Former President Bill Clinton says it still exists and is accounting for much of the current opposition to President Obama.

"Bill Clinton is wrong. Conservatives aren't cheering for Obama to fail. We see many of his policies as taking our nation down the path to failure."
Bruce Cullom
Wake Village, TX

"Mr. Clinton will say or do whatever it takes to remain the center of attention."
Susan Ivey
Palatka, FL

"Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter should take lessons from the former Bush Presidents. When your term is over, collect your marbles and go home."
Linda King
Worthington, OH

"Maybe this time, since the right-wing conspiracy is so vast, Mr. Clinton should just rename it 'the will of the people.'"
Gary Herndon
Henderson, NV

HEALTH CARE FOR ALL?
22 Democratic Congresspeople have signed a letter asking leadership to include unsubsidized health care for illegal immigrants in any reform package.

"Which would be cheaper - allowing illegal immigrants to use hospital emergency rooms or giving them basic health care coverage?"
Steve Lange
Denver, CO

"Health care in this state is in shambles because of illegal immigrants."
Ron Agalsoff
El Monte, CA

"I think illegal aliens should have free health care. In jail."
Ken Luzbetak
Bremerton, WA

"Our presidential candidates don't make promises to those who are here illegally. At least, they shouldn't."
Larry Gallo
Lake Montezuma, AZ

"Good luck trying to find illegal immigrants when they don't pay their premiums. This just goes to show how out of touch Congress is with this situation."
Ava Stegall
Tavernier, FL

"This is a carrot. If illegal immigrants can come to the U.S. and get jobs and health care, this country will become Mexico's hospital!"
Al Unglaub
Bemus Point, NY

"If Mexican illegals are entitled to get health care under the new health care plan, does that entitle Canadians to sneak across the border and get medical care too?"
Henry Kovacic
Toronto, Canada

MISCELLANEOUS
"When my first date asked me about the last book I read, and then asked who Bill O'Reilly was when I answered 'Bold Fresh,' I knew there would be no second date."
Aaron Mancuso
Columbia, MO

"Your show is even better in widescreen!"
Dick Hulette
Orlando, FL

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-09-28T19:19:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score remained at 5.71 questions correct out of 10, exactly the same as the previous week's average. Let's see if you can collectively increase that score this week!

Go: This week's O'Quiz

Viewer Mail for Friday, September 25

2009-09-26T00:01:00Z

FAR-LEFT SOLUTION
How would the committed liberal sect handle the deteriorating situation with Iranian nuclear weapons and Israel?

"While you and Dr. Hill are discussing diplomatic nuances, the Israelis are awaiting a mushroom cloud."
Josef Cermak
Luling, LA

"Did Marc Lamont Hill actually admit that Iran may be deterred from drastic action because they saw what happened in Iraq by Bush?"
Heidi Johnson
Lake Jackson, TX

"The U.S. should take out Iran's nuclear sites. The world would fuss about it, but it would be a safer place."
Gerry Moore
Spraggs, PA

"Israel is currently in possession of more than 300 nuclear weapons supplied by American tax dollars. Do you really think Iran would attempt to bomb such a powerhouse?"
Mike Courtemanche
Bunker Hill, WV

"It's hard to believe three world leaders just found out about Iran's new nuclear facility. I think the least bad solution at this point is to just let Israel attack Iran."
David Forman
Austin, MN

"Iran needs to be dealt with now, with a firm hand, before they bomb Israel. We need to quit making this a political issue."
Joel Heiss
Baltimore, MD

"I agree with blockading Iran. It is an act of war, but also an action of last resort, excluding a full-blown attack."
Lee Silva
Garden Grove, CA

"The United States was aware of Iran's nuclear program during the Bush administration, and we did nothing. Now we're pulling out the political ace card to damage Iran."
Patrick Duffy
Manor, TX

"Why is everyone so against Iran having nukes? I think we should let them have a couple of ours."
Thad Anderson
Riverside, CA

"The UN should be ashamed for not acting against Iran, but Europe should be more ashamed. After all, the Holocaust happened under its watch."
Paul Vaselis
Las Cruces, NM

"If you don't think Israel and Iran are ready to go to war over this, you are wrong."
Sue Harris
Lake Forest, CA

"More than ever, the USA's fate is tied into our fate here in Israel. With leaders like Ahmadinejad, you can see why things in this region are so volatile."
Dudi Friedman
Jerusalem, Israel

"It is clearly Obama's policy to allow Iran to be a Shia regional nuclear power in order to constrain the Sunni nukes in Pakistan, and he is using Israel as his throwaway to achieve this goal."
Stephen Luftschein
Rye Brook, NY

"I think if Israel takes military action against Iran, the U.S. should commit an equal force, along with a military blockade."
David Weber
Lander, WY

"Iran is defying international law by pursuing nuclear weapons, but it won't nuke Israel. The retaliation would end Iran's existence and they know it."
Ken Ballard
Monroe, WA

ACORN CONTROVERSY
Geraldo Rivera responds to the lawsuit filed by ACORN against the two undercover filmmakers who exposed fraud at the company.

"Of course Geraldo thinks ACORN is OK -- they supported President Obama!"
Tom Kihs
Newport, OR

"Please tell Geraldo he should keep a special place in his heart for the honest people who help the poor."
Patrick Sigmund
Atascadero, CA

"According to Geraldo's logic, if a shoplifter is arrested in a store, then other shoppers should be arrested too."
Annamaria Perrella
Scottsdale, AZ

"Geraldo should be on dancing show. As a lawyer, he should be respectful of the concept of probable cause."
Gary Kraeger
Wind Lake, WI

"Geraldo compared ACORN and its questionable appropriation of funds to Jerry Falwell and the 700 Club. To my knowledge, those right-leaning ministries have not received millions in taxpayer dollars. The comparison is unfair."
Marilynn Crisp
Longboat Key, FL

"There is nothing in the Constitution that says Congress has to give money to any charitable or non-governmental organization."
Don Anderson
Jomtien, Thailand

DUMBEST THINGS
O'Reilly nominates Muammar Qaddafi's rambling speech at the United Nations as one of the dumbest things of the week.

"If you are going to make Qaddafi no spin hats, it would be appropriate to put a propeller on top of them."
Dan Miller
Pacific Grove, CA

"Watching Qaddafi, I expected Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones in their Men in Black roles to rescue us."
James Daniels
Laurinburg, NC

"After listening to Qaddafi's UN speech, he made Obama's health care speeches sound very similar, like a load of nonsense."
Peter Williams
Brisbane, Australia

This week's new crossword: The UN, Then & Now

2009-09-25T21:45:00Z

Since the UN has been in the news practically nonstop, this week's new crossword puzzle is filled with clues pertaining to the past and present United Nations. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Viewer Mail for Thursday, September 24

2009-09-25T00:00:00Z

BOILING POINT?
Tensions continue to flare between Israel and Iran. Will the international community intervene?

"Israel will do what it takes to keep their country safe. And they'll even have enough nukes left over to take care of any country who objects too strenuously."
Bill Peterken
Strong, ME

"Nobody ever talks about all the other countries with nuclear weapons. Why is Israel allowed to have nuclear arms?"
Phil Tagley
Costa Mesa, CA

"Is it possible our country would prefer Israel to attack Iran so we could avoid having to make any tough decisions?"
Patti Telles
Moreno Valley, CA

"Once Iran wipes out Israel, who is next on their list? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a thug and won't stop with Israel."
Glo Malmberg
Chandler, AZ

"The problem for Israel is that if they lose a battle with Iran, there will be no more Israel. Iran has neighbors who will help them out."
Jim Borchick
Elk Grove Village, IL

"I understand the intent of your idea to blockade Iran, but under intentional law, a naval blockade is considered an act of war."
Maj. Jason Torgerson, USAF
Fort Leavenworth, KS

"You say the unintended consequences of Israel bombing Iranian nuclear facilities is catastrophic. But what of the consequences of allowing Iran to join the nuclear club?"
Alexandra Mark
Newport, RI

"It is obvious Mr. Obama has been politically maneuvering Israel into attacking Iran."
Jerry Terranova
Beach Lake, PA

"It will be hellish of Israel attacks Iran. Oil will hit $200/barrel. Hamas and Hezbollah will launch a full-scale war against Israel."
Chris Topple
Oshawa, Canada

BREAST CANCER PSA
A provocative ad trying to raise awareness for breast cancer may have gone a little too far.

"Breast cancer awareness is not about saving women's 'boobs.' Breast cancer awareness is about saving women's lives."
Rose Marie Nicholson
Mendham, NJ

"The use of boobs to promote breast cancer awareness is totally appropriate. It's 2009 - there's nothing scandalous about a woman in a bikini."
Jarrod Smith
Oxford, MS

"I found the ad beyond offensive. I'm fighting breast cancer and I don't see how this sexy video is going to bring attention to the disease."
Kathy Walters
Cohoes, NY

"I love the ad. It is a witty way to catch the attention of a wider audience."
Judith Mangrum
Oceanside, CA

"Would you please ask the culture warriors if they'd endorse an ad for prostate cancer using comparable marketing techniques?"
Bill Klutho
Portland, OR

"The ad was unquestionably exploitative. The end does not justify the means."
Sid Coblentz
Nashua, NH

MUSICAL TRIBUTE
Video surfaces of elementary students in New Jersey singing a song about Barack Obama - is this appropriate behavior in public schools?

"The video reminds me of my World History studies in college, where we learned about Mao having children sing praise of the communist party in China."
Sharon Rhodes
Reno, NV

"If I had a child in that classroom, the school would definitely hear from me. I think the teacher should be fired."
Linda Toledo
Visalia, CA

"I certainly hope these kids know the words to the Star-Spangled Banner and God Bless America as well as they know the words to the Obama song."
Mary Meyer
Cincinnati, OH

"I don't remember learning a song with the President's name when I was in school. Do you?"
Judi Driscoll
Walpole, MA

"The only thing missing from the daunting song about Obama was 'Heil Obama' at the end. It recalls the days of Hitler Youth!"
Mary Kofron-Dixon
Mebane, NC

"Mmm mmm mmm, William James O'Reilly,
Reports the news fair and square,
Definitely no spinning there.
Mmm mmm mmm, William James O'Reilly."
Barbara Maselbas
Bristol, CT

BECK UNPLUGGED
Glenn Beck tells Katie Couric he thinks John McCain would have been a worse president than Barack Obama. Do you agree?

"Glenn Beck has been drinking the kool-aid if he thinks John McCain would make a worse president than Obama."
Charles McCollum
Fort Collins, CO

"If McCain was elected, he would have set the Republican party back 100 years. Glenn Beck is right."
Ron Yeager
Mesa, AZ

"I think I understand Glenn Beck's message. If McCain had been elected, the fighting American voice would still be silent."
Donna Hassel
Lancaster, CA

"I think McCain was the worst thing to happen to the Republican party. He tries to play both sides of the aisle and would have been a disastrous president."
Richard Choat
Birmingham, AL

"I'm very disappointed with Glenn Beck's comment. McCain is an honest man and an American hero."
Mary Ann Anders
Cable, WI

MISCELLANEOUS
"I'm not much of a reading guy, but my wife bought me 'Bold Fresh.' It will be the first non-academic book I've read since 'Around the World in 80 Days' in 8th grade."
Nimett Sharma
Nutley, NJ

"My husband thinks you should start your own line of coffee and call it 'Bold Fresh.'"
Judy Heitzman
Mill City, OR

Bill's Latest Column: The Wide World of Chaos

2009-09-24T21:24:00Z

In his new column this week, Bill takes a look at all of the chaos happening in the world today and what President Obama must do if he wants to see any changes made.

Go: Bill's latest column

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, September 23

2009-09-23T23:57:00Z

BRINK OF WAR?
With Iran getting closer to a nuclear weapon, how will the international community respond to the threat?

"You indicated Israel will wait to see if sanctions are imposed before attacking Iran. If Iran gets missiles from Russia, Israel will also attack to prevent the anti-air defense system from being implemented."
Scott Sessions
Irving, TX

"There is already a global war on terror. I'm not worried about a world war between Israel and Iran to boot."
Joe Viera
Glendale, AZ

"We're not bluffing anymore. If Iran attacks Israel, we'll knock their missiles out of the sky with the new missile system Obama has proposed."
James Eyler
Memphis, TN

ACORN INVESTIGATION
Rep. Barney Frank explains how he erroneously signed a letter calling for an investigation into the conservative filmmakers who shot the undercover video of ACORN employees behaving badly.

"You're losing it. Congressman Frank sounded more reasonable than you did."
Debbie Hanlon
Encinitas, CA

"You and Barney Frank had a surprisingly cordial exchange about ACORN corruption. You should be his partner on 'Dancing With The Stars.'"
Patrick von Tscharner
Greenwood Village, CO

"Stop pestering Barney when he's talking. Let the dinosaur do his song and dance."
Jack Ashcraft
Vista, CA

"I'm not very fond of Mr. Frank, but at least he isn't intimidated to come on Fox News like somebody else in Washington!"
Josh Gearhart
Circleville, OH

"I got the impression last night that Barney is starting to smell the coffee. A couple more interviews and you might become good friends."
Norm Cotta
Alpharetta, GA

"As a lifelong resident of Massachusetts, I'm embarrassed Barney Frank represents my state. But you handled him perfectly."
Colleen West
Worcester, MA

"Barney Frank continues to complain that you won't let him finish his sentences. Doesn't he realize it's the no spin zone?"
Vinny DeToma
Shelburne, VT

"I like Barney's politics considerably more than yours, and he is right about ACORN."
Darren Starck
Dorchester, UK

PITCH PERFECT
Dennis Miller throws out the first pitch and sings 'Take Me Out to the Ballgame' at the Cubs game.

"Thanks for showing that clip of Dennis Miller throwing out the first pitch. It brought back memories of my little sister pitching for her elementary school team."
Lou Smith
Zanesville, OH

"Miller should give lessons to politicians about taking responsibility. He sang, he pitched, he sucked, and he admitted it unequivocally."
Chuck Mostert
Prescott Valley, AZ

"I've seen 13-year-old girls with stronger arms throwing from the outfield to home plate. And they are throwing heavier balls."
Joe Viera
Glendale, AZ

"Forget about the first pitch! As much as I love Miller, he couldn't carry a tune if you put it in a wheelbarrow for him."
Jonathan Eisenberg
Middletown, RI

"What did Dennis Miller do with the money his mother gave him for singing lessons?"
Barb Thornberry
Middletown, NJ

HEALTH CARE ACTIVISM
Comedian Will Ferrell puts out a spoof video criticizing health care reform for unfairly targeting health insurance company executives.

"Why do the entertainment elite like Will Ferrell think their bloated salaries are more deserved than corporate CEOs?"
Chris Jones
Knoxville, TN

"Let me get this straight: a grossly overpaid, unfunny hack like Will Ferrell, who employs no one, thinks health insurance CEOs, who employ thousands, are overpaid?"
Doug Kilgore
Kirkland, WA

"I think Will Ferrell forgets that thousands of people who work for health insurance companies pay to see his movies."
Todd Riley
Richmond, VA

"Will Ferrell should stick to making Academy Award winning films like Talladega Nights instead of trying to explain health care to us."
Michael Douglas, Sr.
Van Horne, IA

"I've never been a Will Ferrell fan. Whether this was an attempt at serious political commentary or comedy, it succeeded at neither."
David Brown
Grafenwoehr, Germany

MISCELLANEOUS
"I once dumped a guy because he wouldn't let me watch the Factor. Now I'm married to a wonderful man who watches with me every night."
Heather Horst
Durham, NC

"My husband bought me a kindle for my birthday. I'm going to christen it with 'Bold Fresh.'"
Wendy Luse
Chanhassen, MN

"My mom used to think you were a bloviator until I bought her 'Bold Fresh.' Now she believes you're a good man."
Tim Young
Evans, GA

New Backstage Conversation now online!

2009-09-23T22:07:00Z

This week a Premium Member asks Bill if there are any plans to have former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on the Factor. Don't miss Bill's answer to this and more in our new Backstage Conversation!

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, September 22

2009-09-22T23:56:00Z

AFGHANISTAN SURGE?
The commanding General is asking President Obama to sent 30-40,000 more U.S. troops to finish the job off. But the far-left wants to call the whole thing off!

"The United States was not attacked by Afghanistan. Bring the troops home and let them protect our borders!"
Bert Kurland
Glen Ivy, CA

"Please don't give Obama a pass on his u-turn on Afghanistan policy. He's breaking a promise and putting our troops in danger."
Peter Harvey
New York, NY

"If the commanding general is asking for 40,000 more troops, but Obama can't make up his mind, the general should bring the troops home until our President can make a decision."
C.J. Harris
Denison, TX

"When Russia left Afghanistan, the Taliban took over and knocked the Twin Towers down. If we leave, what proof do we have that something like that won't happen again?"
Rick Bailey
Albany, KY

"Fight to win or get out. But I think Obama should give McChrystal the whole 40,000 and give it one more shot."
Ed Dost
Port Angeles, WA

"There are no good choices in Afghanistan, but evil must be confronted."
Chuck Hill
San Diego, CA

"Our casualties in Iraq increased right after the surge, but you always lose more when you take the fight to the enemy. That's also how you win in the end."
Charlie Williams
Jacksonville, NC

"The war in Afghanistan is not about democracy. It's about stability in the region and suppressing terrorism."
James Dupius
Pensacola, FL

"Our Commander-in-Chief doesn't seem to care if we win, so we should pull the troops out of Afghanistan."
Tony Scaffide
Alpine, WY

"NATO partners should contribute more of their troops to the battle in Afghanistan. The US, UK, and Canada can't win this alone."
Peter Bartley
Liverpool, England

BATH TIME PHOTOS
Parents are suing Wal-Mart after the store reported to authorities some naked bath time photos of their children. The kids were taken out of the home for a month, pending a Child Protective Services investigation. Is it legal?

"Child Protective Services should have shown up, asked questions and then left."
Ed Kocialski
Azle, TX

"What parent doesn't have nude bath time photos of their kids? Wal-Mart had no right calling the authorities."
Marilyn Burrows
Scottsdale, AZ

"Where was the judgment of Child Protective Services ripping these children away from their parents?"
Chris Scott
Charlotte, NC

"I agree with erring on the side of caution, but social services never should have taken these kids away for a month."
Ray Millsap
Piney Flats, TN

"Wal-Mart did the right thing. The parents did the right thing. Child Services should have been able to determine the innocence of the parents without taking the kids out of their home."
Will Carter
Huntsville, AL

"Why is Wal-Mart being blamed when CPS were the ones who investigated and chose to take the kids away?"
Victor Soto
Harker Heights, TX

"I'm a teacher and a mandated reporter of suspected child abuse. Wal-Mart was obliged to report, but I'm sure they have deeper pockets than Child Services."
Kathleen Thrift
Camarillo, CA

DANCING MACHINE!
Former House Majority leader Tom DeLay is starring on this season's 'Dancing With The Stars' - his first performance was to the song 'Wild Thing.'

"Tom DeLay looks great! He has a whole new career ahead of him."
Brian Saint-Yves
Phoenix, AZ

"I have always liked Mr. DeLay, but watching that dance video was just too painful."
Tim Granstrom
Dakota Dunes, SD

"My wife and I thought Mr. DeLay did a better job on 'Dancing With The Stars' than Mr. Obama did on Letterman's show."
Danny Gonzales
Eustis, FL

"How about one of those warnings about disturbing video before you showed Congressman DeLay dancing?"
Robin Swartz
Wasilla, AK

MISCELLANEOUS
"I'm 15 and I rented 'Bold Fresh' from the library so I could do a book report on it for my conservative English teacher."
Collin Brecher
La Porte City, IA

"Just got around to reading 'Bold Fresh.' How do you come up with this stuff?"
Cole Moscatel
Redlands, CA

"I can count on one hand the number of books I've read more than once. 'Bold Fresh' has just been added to that exclusive list."
Mike Barletto
Brookside, NJ

"Loved the book, but I only wish I had bought it after those great red bags came out!"
Susan Locklin
St. Augustine, FL

Stratfor.com: The BMD Decision and the Global System

2009-09-22T21:19:00Z

The United States announced late Sept. 17 that it would abandon a plan for placing ballistic missile defense (BMD) installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Instead of the planned system, which was intended to defend primarily against a potential crude intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threat from Iran against the United States, the administration chose a restructured system that will begin by providing some protection to Europe using U.S. Navy ships based on either the North or Mediterranean seas. The Obama administration has argued that this system will be online sooner than the previously planned system and that follow-on systems will protect the United States. It was also revealed that the latest National Intelligence Estimate finds that Iran is further away from having a true intercontinental missile capability than previously thought, meaning protecting Europe is a more pressing concern than protecting the United States.

Poland and the Czech Republic responded with a sense of U.S. betrayal, while Russia expressed its satisfaction with the decision. Russian envoy to NATO Dmitri Rogozin said Moscow welcomes the decision and sees it as an appropriate response to Russia's offer to allow U.S. supplies to flow into Afghanistan through Russia. Later, the Russians added another reward: They tentatively announced the cancellation of plans to deploy short-range ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, which they previously had planned as a response to the components of the U.S. BMD system planned for Poland and the Czech Republic.

Polish Despair and Russian Delight
Polish despair (and Warsaw seemed far more upset than Prague) and Russian satisfaction must be explained to begin to understand the global implications. To do this, we must begin with an odd fact: The planned BMD system did not in and of itself enhance Polish national security in any way even if missiles had actually targeted Warsaw, since the long-range interceptors in Poland were positioned there to protect the continental United States; missiles falling on Poland would likely be outside the engagement envelope of the original Ground-based Midcourse Defense interceptors. The system was designed to handle very few missiles originating from the Middle East, and the Russians obviously have more than a few missiles.

Given that even small numbers of missiles easily could overwhelm the system, the BMD system in no way directly affected Russian national security: The Russian strike capability-against both Poland and the continental United States-was not affected at all. Indeed, placing the system on ships is no less threatening than placing them on land. So, if it was the BMD system the Russians were upset with, they should be no less upset by the redeployment at sea. Yet Moscow is pleased by what has happened-which means the BMD system was not really the issue.

For Poland, the BMD system was of little importance. What was important was that in placing the system in Poland, the United States obviously was prepared to defend the system from all threats. Since the system could not be protected without also protecting Poland, the BMD installation-and the troops and defensive systems that would accompany it-was seen as a U.S. guarantee on Polish national security even though the system itself was irrelevant to Polish security.

The Russians took the same view. They cared little about the BMD system itself; what they objected to was the presence of a U.S. strategic capability in Poland because this represented an American assertion that Poland was actively under the defense of the United States. Of particular note from the Russian point of view was that such a guarantee would be independent of NATO. The NATO alliance has seen better days, and the Russians (and Poles) perceive an implicit American security guarantee as more threatening than an explicit one from NATO.

This whole chain of events was an exercise in the workings of the Post-Post-Cold War World, in which Russia is a strong regional power seeking to protect its influence in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and to guarantee its frontiers as well-something that in the West has often been misinterpreted as a neurotic need for respect. Poland is the traditional route through which Russia is invaded, and the Russian view is that governments and intentions change but capabilities do not. Whatever Washington intends now, it is asserting dominance in a region that has been the route for three invasions over the last two centuries. By the Russian logic, if the United States has no interest in participating in such an invasion, it should not be interested in Poland. If the United States chooses Poland of all places to deploy its BMD when so many other locations were willing and possible, the Russians are not prepared to regard this choice as merely coincidence.

Overall, the Russians desire a new map of the region, one with two layers. First, Russia must be recognized as the dominant power in the former Soviet Union. The United States and Europe must shape bilateral relations with other former Soviet states within the framework of this understanding. Second, Central Europe-and particularly Poland-must not become a base for U.S. power. The United States and Europe must accept that Russia has no aggressive intent, but more to the point, Poland in particular must become a neutral buffer zone between Russia and Germany. It can sign whatever treaties it wants, attend whatever meetings it wishes and so forth, but major military formations of other great powers must remain out of Poland. Russia sees the BMD system as the first step in militarizing Poland, and the Russians have acted accordingly.

From the standpoint of the Bush administration and the Obama administration early on, the Russian claims to great power status, rights in the former Soviet Union and interests in Poland represented a massive overreach. The perception of both administrations derived from an image developed in the 1990s of Russia as crippled. The idea of Russia as a robust regional power, albeit with significant economic problems, simply didn't register. There were two generations at work. The older Cold War generation did not trust Russian intentions and wanted to create a cordon around Russia-including countries like Georgia, Ukraine and, most important, Poland-because Russia could become a global threat again. The newer post-Cold War generation-which cut its teeth in the 1990s-wanted to ignore Russia and do what it wished both in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union because Russia was no longer a significant power, and the generation saw the need to develop a new system of relationships. In the end, all this congealed in the deployments in Poland and the Czech Republic.

For Russia, Poland mattered in ways the United States could not grasp given its analytic framework. But the United States had its own strategic obsession: Iran.

Iran: The U.S. Strategic Obsession
The Islamic world has been the focus of the United States since 9/11. In this context, the development of an Iranian nuclear capability was seen as a fundamental threat to U.S. national interests. The obvious response was a military strike to destroy Iranian power, but both the Bush and Obama administrations hesitated to take the step.

First, a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would be no one-day affair. Intelligence on precise locations had uncertainty built into it, and any strike would consist of multiple phases: destroying Iran's air force and navy, destroying Iran's anti-aircraft capability to guarantee total command of the skies, the attacks on the nuclear facilities themselves, analysis of the damage, perhaps a second wave, and of course additional attacks to deal with any attempted Iranian retaliation. The target set would be considerable, and would extend well beyond the targets directly related to the nuclear program, making such an operation no simple matter.

Second, Iran has the ability to respond in a number of ways. One is unleashing terrorist attacks worldwide via Hezbollah. But the most significant response would be blocking the Strait of Hormuz using either anti-ship missiles or naval mines. The latter are more threatening largely because the clearing operation could take a considerable period and it would be difficult to know when you had cleared all of the mines. Tankers and their loads are worth about $170 million at current prices, and that uncertainty could cause owners to refuse the trip. Oil exports could fall dramatically, and the effect on the global economy-particularly now amid the global financial crisis-could be absolutely devastating. Attacking Iran would be an air-sea battle, and could even include limited ground forces inserted to ensure that the nuclear facilities were destroyed.

The country most concerned with all of this is Israel. The Iranians had given every indication that they plan to build a nuclear capability and use it against Israel. Israel's vulnerability to such a strike is enormous, and there are serious questions about Israel's ability to use the threat of a counterstrike as a deterrent to such a strike. In our view, Iran is merely creating a system to guarantee regime survival, but given the tenor of Tehran's statements, Israel cannot afford to take this view complacently.

Israel could unilaterally draw the United States into an airstrike on Iran. Were Israel to strike Iran by any means, it most likely would lack the ability to conduct an extended air campaign. And the United States could not suffer the consequences of airstrikes without the benefits of taking out Iran's nuclear program. Apart from the political consequences, the U.S. Navy would be drawn into the suppression of Iranian naval capabilities in the Persian Gulf whether it wanted to or not simply to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Even if Iran didn't act to close off the strait, Washington would have to assume that it might, an eventuality it could not afford. So an Israeli attack would likely draw in the United States against Iran one way or another. The United States has had no appetite for such an eventuality, particularly since it considers a deliverable Iranian nuclear weapon a ways off. The U.S. alternative-in both administrations-was diplomatic.

Israel and Complications to the Diplomatic Alternative
Washington wanted to create a coalition of powers able to impose sanctions on Iran. At meetings over the summer, the Obama administration appears to have promised Israel "crippling" sanctions to prevent any unilateral Israel action. At an April G-8 meeting, it was decided that Iran must engage in serious negotiations on its nuclear program prior to the next G-8 meeting-on Sept. 24-or face these sanctions.

The crippling sanctions foreseen were some sort of interruption of the flow of gasoline into Iran, which imports 40 percent of its supply despite being a net exporter of crude. Obviously, in order for this to work, all of the G-8 nations (and others) must participate, particularly Russia. Russia has the capacity to produce and transport all of Iran's needs, not just its import requirements. If the Russians don't participate, there are no sanctions.

The Russians announced weeks ago that they opposed new sanctions on Iran and would not participate in them. Moreover, they seemed to flout the ineffectiveness of any U.S. sanctions. With that, the diplomatic option on Iran was off the table. Russia is not eager to see Iran develop nuclear weapons, but it sees the United States as the greater threat at the moment. Moscow's fundamental fear is that the United States-and Israel-will dramatically strengthen Ukraine, Georgia and other states in the FSU and on its periphery, and that Russia's strategic goal of national security through pre-eminence in the region will be lost.

>From the Russian point of view, the U.S. desire for Russian help with Iran is incompatible with the U.S. desire to pursue its own course in the FSU and countries like Poland. From the U.S. point of view, these were two entirely different matters that should be handled in a different venue. But Washington didn't get to choose in this matter. This was a Russian decision. The Russians faced what they saw as an existential threat, believing that the U.S. strategy threatened the long-term survival of the Russian Federation. The Russians were not prepared to support a U.S. solution for Iran without American support on Russian concerns. The Americans ultimately did not understand that the Russians had shifted out of the era in which the United States could simply dictate to them. Now, the United States had to negotiate with the Russians on terms Moscow set, or the United States would have to become more directly threatening to Russia. Becoming more threatening was not an option with U.S. forces scattered all over the Middle East. Therefore, the United States had to decide what it wanted.

American attention in the run-up to the Oct. 1 talks with Iran was focused by Israel. The Obama administration had adopted an interesting two-tier position on Israel. On the one hand, it was confronting Israel on halting settlement activity in the West Bank; on the other hand, it was making promises to Israel on Iran. The sense in Israel was that the Obama administration was altering Washington's traditional support for Israel. Since Iran was a critical threat to Israel, and since Israel might not have a better chance to strike than now, the Obama administration began to realize that its diplomatic option had failed, and that the decision on war and peace with Iran was not in its hands but in Israel's, since Israel was prepared to act unilaterally and draw the United States into a war. Given that the Obama diplomatic initiative had failed and that the administration's pressure on Israel had created a sense of isolation in Israel, the situation could now well spiral out of control.

Although all of these things operated in different bureaucratic silos in Washington, and participants in each silo could suffer under the illusion that the issues were unrelated, the matters converged hurriedly last week. Uncertain what leverage it had over Israel, the United States decided to reach out to the Russians. Washington sought a way to indicate to the Russians that it was prepared to deal with Russia in a different way while simultaneously giving away as little as possible. That little was the redeployment of BMD components originally planned for Poland and the Czech Republic to ships. (Money already has been allocated to upgrade additional Atlantic-based Aegis warships to BMD capability.) Whatever the military and engineering issues involved, whatever the desire not to conflate U.S. strategic relations with Israel with pressure on the settlement issue, whatever the desire to "reset" relations without actually giving the Russians anything, the silos collapsed and a gesture was made.

>From the Russian point of view, the gesture is welcome but insufficient. They are not going to solve a major strategic problem for the United States simply in return for moving the BMD. For that, the United States got access to Afghanistan through Russia if desired, and the removal of missiles in Kaliningrad. The Americans also got a different atmosphere at meetings between U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev at the United Nations next week. But the sine qua non for Russian help on Iran is Russia's sphere of influence in the FSU. The public relations aspect of how this sphere is announced is not critical. That the U.S. agrees to it is.

This is the foreign policy test all U.S. presidents face. Obama now has three choices.

He can make the deal with Russia. But every day that passes, Russia is creating the reality of domination in the FSU, so its price for a deal will continue to rise from simply recognizing their sphere of influence to extending it to neutralizing Poland.
He can select the military option of an air campaign against Iran. But this means accepting the risk to maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf and the potentially devastating impact on the global economy if oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are impacted significantly.
He can wait to see how things unfold, and place overwhelming pressure on Israel not to attack. But this means finding a way to place the pressure: Israel in 2009 does not have the dependence on the United States it had in 1973.

The Importance of Poland
Ultimately, the question of Iran is secondary. The question of U.S.-Russian relations is now paramount. And ultimately, policymakers don't really have as much freedom to make choices as they would like. Under any of these scenarios, the United States doesn't have the power to stop Russian dominance in the FSU, but it does have the ability to block further Russian expansion on the North European Plain. Preventing an amalgamation between Russia and Europe is a fundamental interest to the United States; neutralizing Poland and depending on Germany as the Russian-European frontier is not inviting-especially as Germany has no interest in reprising the role it played from 1945 to 1991.

The United States has an Iran crisis, but it is not its fundamental geopolitical problem. Interestingly, the Iran crisis is highlighting the real issue, which is Russia. It is Russia that is blocking a solution to Iran because Russian and American interests have profoundly diverged. What is emerging from Iran is the issue of Russia. And obviously, when Russia becomes an issue, so does Poland. If the United States acts to limit Russia, it will act in Poland, and not with BMD systems.

The Obama administration's decision to withdraw BMD is insufficient to entice Russia into assisting with Iran. An agreement to respect Russian rights in the FSU would be sufficient (and in a way would merely recognize what is already in place). Obama might quietly give that assurance. But if he does, the United States will not add Poland to the pile of concessions. The greater the concessions in the FSU, the more important Poland becomes. The idea of conceding both Russian hegemony in the FSU and the neutralization of Poland in exchange for Russian pressure on Iran is utterly disproportionate.

The United States has already completed delivery of 48 late-model F-16C/Ds with advanced offensive capabilities to Poland. That matters far more to Polish national security than BMD. In the U.S. tradition with allies-particularly allies with strong lobbies in the United States, where the Polish lobby is immense-disappointment on one weapon system usually results in generosity with other, more important systems (something the Poles must learn).

As the United States has a strong military option in Iran, redrawing the map of Europe to avoid using that option-regardless of Polish fears at the moment-is unlikely. Moreover, Washington also could decide to live with an Iranian nuclear capability without redrawing the map of Europe. Ultimately, the United States has made a gesture with little content and great symbolic meaning. It is hoping that the Russians are overwhelmed by the symbolism. They won't be.

For their part, the Russians are hoping the Americans panic over Iran. The fact is that while Russia is a great regional power, it is not that great, and its region is not that critical. The Russians may be betting that Obama will fold. They made the same bet on John F. Kennedy. Obama reads the same reports that we do about how the Russians believe him to be weak and indecisive. And that is a formula for decisive-if imprudent-action.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

Click here to take advantage of 50% OFF regular subscription rates - offered exclusively for BillOReilly.com readers.

Viewer Mail for Monday, September 21

2009-09-22T00:50:00Z

FOX NEWS SNUB?
President Obama does the Sunday morning chat show rounds, with the exception of Fox News Sunday. How are Factor viewers reacting to this slap in the face?

"If President Obama wants to talk to me, he'll have to do an interview on Fox News."
Ed Evans
Abbeville, SC

"How can we trust the President to protect us on national security issues if he's too afraid even to come on Fox News?"
Kimberly DeBona
Bryan, TX

"If President Obama wants to continue preaching to the choir and avoid Fox News, he is only hurting himself."
Paul Raymond
Lehi, UT

"Obama's no-show on Fox News means you guys are winning."
David Taylor
Scottsdale, AZ

"Not only did President Obama diss Fox News producers and anchors, he dissed their millions of viewers across America."
Gerald Stakely Jr.
Mocksville, NC

"Why don't you call it what it is? President Obama refusing to appear on Fox is a clear form of censorship of the media by the White House."
Fred Garcia
Gilbert, AZ

"President Obama has more media time than a soap opera star. Yet to this day when he talks, he is still campaigning and not leading."
Bob Pannelli
Niceville, FL

ACORN & OBAMA
The President is asked about the ACORN controversy, and he tells George Stephanopoulos that while he was disturbed by the undercover video, he thinks the country has more important problems.

"Juan Williams claims the amount of taxpayer money ACORN has been given is insignificant. I think he's been around politicians for too long."
Sandra Eagleburger
Nixa, MO

"Government-funded corruption and widespread election fraud by ACORN is a threat to the health of our representative republic."
Jim Armstrong
Morgantown, WV

"I find it interesting that Obama says there are bigger issues facing the country than ACORN. Yet he found the time for a nationally televised beer summit not so long ago."
Cornelius Cline
Dandridge, TN

"The President says he hasn't followed the ACORN scandal, yet he expects us to believe he is going to pay for health care by cracking down on waste and fraud."
Dana Matas
Carlsbad, CA

"The President says he was appalled by the ACORN videos. He must be watching them on Fox News!"
Ted Hammel
New Lenox, IL

"With our economy in such terrible shape, Obama needs to order an investigation into taxpayer money being misused at ACORN."
Tom Hyland
Riverside, CA

"I suggest President Obama starts with ACORN in his mission to eliminate waste and fraud to pay for health care."
Randy Brown
Morristown, TN

LUNGING SNAKES!
A report out of Florida says a new breed of aggressive pythons is slithering wild in the state.

"We can solve the snake problem in Florida by turning them into snacks. A 15-foot python could feed a lot of people!"
Ronald Kowalewski
Whiting, NJ

"I think we could kill two birds with one stone by introducing Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and his friends to the pythons in Florida."
Scott Gray
Easthampton, MA

REALITY CHECK
John McCain chastises Jimmy Carter for saying some of President Obama's opposition is motivated by racism.

"I agree with John McCain that Jimmy Carter was the worst President this century. He was more interested in getting a Nobel Peace Prize than getting our hostages released from Iran."
Grover Shetterly
Dublin, CA

"Jimmy Carter was a failure as President, and now he's a failure as ex-President."
Sammy Poole
Elm City, NC

"Thank God the majority of Americans want to bring this country together and not tear it apart like some peanut farmer from Georgia."
Pat Corbat
Avilla, IN

MISCELLANEOUS
"There once was a man named Bill,
Whose show was always a thrill,
One day he wrote a book,
So I had to take a look,
Bold Fresh is a happiness pill."
Julia Weissenberger
Calgary, Canada

Bill to appear in Houston, TX

2009-09-21T21:43:00Z

Bill will be speaking at the 2009 Crime Stoppers Gala fundraiser for Crime Stoppers of Houston, Texas on Thursday, October 22. Additional details on the venue and tickets are available on Crime-Stoppers.org.

Go: Upcoming Appearances

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-09-21T21:34:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was up over a point to 5.71 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 4.21 out of 10. Good work! How well will you do this week?

Go: This week's O'Quiz

This week's new crossword: ACORN & Assorted Other Nuts

2009-09-18T23:25:00Z

Owing to this week's stories surrounding ACORN, this week's new crossword puzzle is filled with clues pertaining to nuts of all kinds. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Viewer Mail for Friday, September 18

2009-09-18T20:03:00Z

FOX NEWS SNUB?
President Obama set to make the Sunday morning media rounds, appearing on every show except Fox News Sunday.

"President Obama will meet with Chavez of Venezuela and Imanutjob from Iran, but he's too afraid to appear with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday?"
Jim Donna
Brewerton, NY

"Maybe Chris Wallace should interview a cardboard cut-out of President Obama since the real thing won't appear on his show."
Ronald Sieber
Durham, NC

"The reason Barack Obama won't appear on Fox News is because he can't answer your questions honestly. The fringe media only asks bunny questions."
Julie Fronk
Celina, OH

"Chris Wallace is the only game on Sunday since Tim Russert passed. The President is really coming off looking like a coward."
Richard Queen
Edmond, OK

"Chris Wallace nailed it. No wonder the American people are worried about the direction of the country. We don't have a leader, we have a cry baby."
Carole Nikla
Sarasota, FL

CRYING RACISM
Comedian Bill Cosby joins Jimmy Carter in saying racial animosity is in play among some of Obama's critics.

"I have equal intense animosity toward the policies of Presidents Carter and Obama. Does that make me a half racist?"
Donald Jones
Guin, AL

"Carter and Cosby are out in left field. It's not Obama's pigmentation the American people are rejecting, it's his policies."
David Stevenson
Price, UT

"The reality is there are some people who factor race into their opinions of Mr. Obama's policies. But it is a small minority."
Brett Newcome
Statesboro, GA

"Jimmy Carter claims that I am a racist because I strongly disagree with President Obama's policies. But I also strongly disagreed with President Carter's policies when he was in office."
Tracy Richardson
Tyler, TX

"The claims of racism by Carter and Cosby are clearly bogus. As an African-American, I am so tired of people dragging out the race card when an argument is being lost."
Stanley Dixon
Willard, NC

"My question is how many people voted for Obama because he's black? I'm sick of the race card."
Cindy McKenzie
Whiteside, TN

"Those of us who oppose Obama's health care reform aren't motivated by racist feelings. We were opposed to it when the Clintons tried it back in the 90s."
Wayne Johnson
Kelloggsville, OH

COVER BOY
Glenn Beck is featured on the cover of Time magazine.

"You asked Beck why Time did the story on him. It's because he's throwing the sheets off of everything that is going on and giving the majority of Americans a voice."
Bryant Smith, USMC (Ret.)
Oak Harbor, WA

"With Beck on the cover, Time magazine might actually sell a few copies this week."
Frank Fisher
Herriman, UT

"The reason Time featured Glenn Beck on its cover is because they are desperate to sell some magazines. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough to tempt me to buy it."
Marie Gray
Wrightstown, NJ

"Time magazine put Glenn Beck on its cover because the liberal media is afraid of him."
Wendy Harrison
Hercules, CA

"The person at Fox News who hired Glenn Beck should get a big raise!"
John Rose
Henderson, NV

"Ironically, Glenn Beck has exposed more fraud and corruption in government, and indirectly achieved more results in a week or two than the entire Republican party has managed in five years."
John Bailey
Nashville, TN

"Glenn Beck is right -- President Obama has surrounded himself with some very questionable people."
George Eazell
Placentia, CA

MISCELLANEOUS
"Thank you for your sentimental nod to the music of your day which is played before your commercial breaks. It gives me a real lift."
Randi Becker Walls
Dayton, OH

Bill's Latest Column: Obama and Us

2009-09-17T20:05:00Z

In his new column this week, Bill analyzes why the ACORN scandal is overshadowing any progress the Obama White House might otherwise be making--and what Obama must do to turn things around.

Go: Bill's latest column

New Backstage Conversation now online!

2009-09-16T23:06:00Z

This week a Premium Member asks Bill about Pres. Obama's coterie of "czars." Don't miss Bill's answer to this and more in our new Backstage Conversation!

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

Stratfor.com: Misreading the Iranian Situation

2009-09-16T22:22:00Z

The Iranians have now agreed to talks with the P-5+1, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China) plus Germany. These six countries decided in late April to enter into negotiations with Iran over the suspected Iranian nuclear weapons program by Sept. 24, the date of the next U.N. General Assembly meeting. If Iran refused to engage in negotiations by that date, the Western powers in the P-5+1 made clear that they would seriously consider imposing much tougher sanctions on Iran than those that were currently in place. The term "crippling" was mentioned several times.

Obviously, negotiations are not to begin prior to the U.N. General Assembly meeting as previously had been stipulated. The talks are now expected to begin Oct. 1, a week later. This gives the Iranians their first (symbolic) victory: They have defied the P-5+1 on the demand that talks be under way by the time the General Assembly meets. Inevitably, the Iranians would delay, and the P-5+1 would not make a big deal of it.

Talks About Talks and the Sanctions Challenge
Now, we get down to the heart of the matter: The Iranians have officially indicated that they are prepared to discuss a range of strategic and economic issues but are not prepared to discuss the nuclear program-which, of course, is the reason for the talks in the first place. On Sept. 14, they hinted that they might consider talking about the nuclear program if progress were made on other issues, but made no guarantees.

So far, the Iranians are playing their traditional hand. They are making the question of whether there would be talks about nuclear weapons the center of diplomacy. Where the West wanted a commitment to end uranium enrichment, the Iranians are trying to shift the discussions to whether they will talk at all. After spending many rounds of discussions on this subject, they expect everyone to go away exhausted. If pressure is coming down on them, they will agree to discussions, acting as if the mere act of talking represents a massive concession. The members of the P-5+1 that don't want a confrontation with Iran will use Tehran's agreement merely to talk (absent any guarantees of an outcome) to get themselves off the hook on which they found themselves back in April-namely, of having to impose sanctions if the Iranians don't change their position on their nuclear program.

Russia, one of the main members of the P-5+1, already has made clear it opposes sanctions under any circumstances. The Russians have no intention of helping solve the American problem with Iran while the United States maintains its stance on NATO expansion and bilateral relations with Ukraine and Georgia. Russia regards the latter two countries as falling within the Russian sphere of influence, a place where the United States has no business meddling.

To this end, Russia is pleased to do anything that keeps the United States bogged down in the Middle East, since this prevents Washington from deploying forces in Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltics, Georgia or Ukraine. A conflict with Iran not only would bog down the United States even further, it would divide Europe and drive the former Soviet Union and Central Europe into viewing Russia as a source of aid and stability. The Russians thus see Iran as a major thorn in Washington's side. Obtaining Moscow's cooperation on removing the thorn would require major U.S. concessions-beyond merely bringing a plastic "reset" button to Moscow. At this point, the Russians have no intention of helping remove the thorn. They like it right where it is.

In discussing crippling sanctions, the sole obvious move would be blocking gasoline exports to Iran. Iran must import 40 percent of its gasoline needs. The United States and others have discussed a plan for preventing major energy companies, shippers and insurers from supplying that gasoline. The subject, of course, becomes moot if Russia (and China) refuses to participate or blocks sanctions. Moscow and Beijing can deliver all the gasoline Tehran wants. The Russians could even deliver gasoline by rail in the event that Iranian ports are blocked. Therefore, if the Russians aren't participating, the impact of gasoline sanctions is severely diminished, something the Iranians know well.

Tehran and Moscow therefore are of the opinion that this round of threats will end where other rounds ended. The United States, the United Kingdom and France will be on one side; Russia and China will be on the other; and Germany will vacillate, not wanting to be caught on the wrong side of the Russians. In either case, whatever sanctions are announced would lose their punch, and life would go on as before.

There is, however, a dimension that indicates that this crisis might take a different course.

The Israeli Dimension
After the last round of meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama, the Israelis announced that the United States had agreed that in the event of a failure in negotiations, the United States would demand-and get-crippling sanctions against Iran, code for a gasoline cutoff. In return, the Israelis indicated that any plans for a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would be put off. The Israelis specifically said that the Americans had agreed on the September U.N. talks as the hard deadline for a decision on-and implementation of-sanctions.

Our view always has been that the Iranians are far from acquiring nuclear weapons. This is, we believe, the Israeli point of view. But the Israeli point of view also is that, however distant, the Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons represents a mortal danger to Israel-and that, therefore, Israel would have to use military force if diplomacy and sanctions don't work.

For Israel, the Obama guarantee on sanctions represented the best chance at a nonmilitary settlement. If it fails, it is not clear what could possibly work. Given that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has gotten his regime back in line, that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad apparently has emerged from the recent Iranian election crisis with expanded clout over Iran's foreign policy, and that the Iranian nuclear program appears to be popular among Iranian nationalists (of whom there are many), there seems no internal impediment to the program. And given the current state of U.S.-Russian relations and that Washington is unlikely to yield Moscow hegemony in the former Soviet Union in return for help on Iran, a crippling sanctions regime is unlikely.

Obama's assurances notwithstanding, there accordingly is no evidence of any force or process that would cause the Iranians to change their minds about their nuclear program. With that, the advantage to Israel of delaying a military strike evaporates.

And the question of the quality of intelligence must always be taken into account: The Iranians may be closer to a weapon than is believed. The value of risking delays disappears if nothing is likely to happen in the intervening period that would make a strike unnecessary.

Moreover, the Israelis have Obama in a box. Obama promised them that if Israel did not take a military route, he would deliver them crippling sanctions against Iran. Why Obama made this promise-and he has never denied the Israeli claim that he did-is not fully clear. It did buy him some time, and perhaps he felt he could manage the Russians better than he has. Whatever Obama's motivations, having failed to deliver, the Israelis can say that they have cooperated with the United States fully, so now they are free by the terms of their understanding with Washington to carry out strikes-something that would necessarily involve the United States.

The calm assumptions in major capitals that this is merely another round in interminable talks with Iran on its weapons revolves around the belief that the Israelis are locked into place by the Americans. From where we sit, the Israelis have more room to maneuver now than they had in the past, or than they might have in the future. If that's true, then the current crisis is more dangerous than it appears.

Netanyahu appears to have made a secret trip to Moscow (though it didn't stay secret very long) to meet with the Russian leadership. Based on our own intelligence and this analysis, it is reasonable to assume that Netanyahu was trying to drive home to the Russians the seriousness of the situation and Israel's intent. Russian-Israeli relations have deteriorated on a number of issues, particularly over Israeli military and intelligence aid to Ukraine and Georgia. Undoubtedly, the Russians demanded that Israel abandon this aid.

As mentioned, the chances of the Russians imposing effective sanctions on Iran are nil. This would get them nothing. And if not cooperating on sanctions triggers an Israeli airstrike, so much the better. This would degrade and potentially even effectively eliminate Iran's nuclear capability, which in the final analysis is not in Russia's interest. It would further enrage the Islamic world at Israel. It would put the United States in the even more difficult position of having to support Israel in the face of this hostility. And from the Russian point of view, it would all come for free. (That said, in such a scenario the Russians would lose much of the leverage the Iran card offers Moscow in negotiations with the United States.)

Ramifications of an Israeli Strike
An Israeli airstrike would involve the United States in two ways. First, it would have to pass through Iraqi airspace controlled by the United States, at which point no one would believe that the Americans weren't complicit. Second, the likely Iranian response to an Israeli airstrike would be to mine the Strait of Hormuz and other key points in the Persian Gulf-something the Iranians have said they would do, and something they have the ability to do.

Some have pointed out that the Iranians would be hurting themselves as much as the West, as this would cripple their energy exports. And it must be remembered that 40 percent of globally traded oil exports pass through Hormuz. The effect of mining the Persian Gulf would be devastating to oil prices and to the global economy at a time when the global economy doesn't need more grief. But the economic pain Iran would experience from such a move could prove tolerable relative to the pain that would be experienced by the world's major energy importers. Meanwhile, the Russians would be free to export oil at extraordinarily high prices.

Given the foregoing, the United States would immediately get involved in such a conflict by engaging the Iranian navy, which in this case would consist of small boats with outboard motors dumping mines overboard. Such a conflict would be asymmetric warfare, naval style. Indeed, given that the Iranians would rapidly respond-and that the best way to stop them would be to destroy their vessels no matter how small before they have deployed-the only rational military process would be to strike Iranian boats and ships prior to an Israeli airstrike. Since Israel doesn't have the ability to do that, the United States would be involved in any such conflict from the beginning. Given that, the United States might as well do the attacking. This would increase the probability of success dramatically, and paradoxically would dampen the regional reaction compared to a unilateral Israeli strike.

When we speak to people in Tehran, Washington and Moscow, we get the sense that they are unaware that the current situation might spin out of control. In Moscow, the scenario is dismissed because the general view is that Obama is weak and inexperienced and is frightened of military confrontation; the assumption is that he will find a way to bring the Israelis under control.

It isn't clear that Obama can do that, however. The Israelis don't trust him, and Iran is a core issue for them. The more Obama presses them on settlements the more they are convinced that Washington no longer cares about Israeli interests. And that means they are on their own, but free to act.

It should also be remembered that Obama reads intelligence reports from Moscow, Tehran and Berlin. He knows the consensus about him among foreign leaders, who don't hold him in high regard. That consensus causes foreign leaders to take risks; it also causes Obama to have an interest in demonstrating that they have misread him.

We are reminded of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis only in this sense: We get the sense that everyone is misreading everyone else. In the run-up to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Americans didn't believe the Soviets would take the risks they did and the Soviets didn't believe the Americans would react as they did. In this case, the Iranians believe the United States will play its old game and control the Israelis. Washington doesn't really understand that Netanyahu may see this as the decisive moment. And the Russians believe Netanyahu will be controlled by an Obama afraid of an even broader conflict than he already has on his hands.

The current situation is not as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis was, but it has this in common: Everyone thinks we are on a known roadmap, when in reality, one of the players-Israel-has the ability and interest to redraw the roadmap. Netanyahu has been signaling in many ways that he intends to do just this. Everyone seems to believe he won't. We aren't so sure.

Stratfor is a private intelligence company delivering in-depth analysis, assessments and forecasts on global geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues. A variety of subscription-based access, free intelligence reports and confidential consulting are available for individuals and corporations.

Click here to take advantage of 50% OFF regular subscription rates - offered exclusively for BillOReilly.com readers.

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, September 16

2009-09-16T20:02:00Z

INJECTING RACE
Former President Jimmy Carter says some of Obama's critics will never support anything he does because he's a black man.

"Thanks to Jimmy Carter, for the first time in my life, I am NOT proud to be a Georgian."
Les Carns
Griffin, GA

"The American public is rejecting Obama's policies, not his ethnicity."
Stacey Moucka
Tulsa, OK

"Jimmy Carter's desire for relevance is the cause of his ludicrous statements. He has turned irrelevancy into an art form ever since leaving the White House."
Bill Rauscher
Orlando, FL

"Here's my response to Jimmy Carter calling me racist for rejecting Mr. Obama's policies: you lie!"
Linda Bullock
Durham, NC

"Jimmy Carter's comments about racism are only a smokescreen to take the heat off of Kanye West!"
Richard Needham
Fallbrook, CA

"I have the ultimate rebuke to Jimmy Carter: I think President Obama is way more qualified to be President than he ever was!"
Jerry Wiel
South Elgin, IL

"Laura Ingraham calling Jimmy Carter a self-loathing Southerner was fantastic!"
Gene Williams
Hamilton, MT

"Why do people insist on referring to President Obama as a black president? I'm sick of the race card."
Chuck Kuhr
Schmitten, Germany

ACORN CONTINUED...
"While it is difficult to say something positive about Congress, I'm glad they stopped funding for ACORN. Too bad they had to be hit over the head with a truck to start doing their jobs."
Bernie Brill
Mount Vernon, WA

"If we can't rely on our media and government to stay on top of ACORN's shenanigans, how can we trust government-run health care?"
Kevin Lavallee
Secaucus, NJ

"The ACORN scandal is not about Obama, it's about cleaning up government-funded corruption."
Lynn Barrick
Caledonia, IL

"Illinois has a history of political corruption, so it comes as no surprise that both of our Senators voted to keep funding ACORN."
Bill Schmitz
Fairfield, IL

"How are we going to track ACORN's activities when they close it down and open it back up under a new name?"
James Allen
Sanford, SC

"The President should direct AG Holder to investigate ACORN and find out where the evidence leads. If he doesn't, he's guilty of obstruction of justice."
Jack Rengstl
Miami Shores, FL

"ACORN appears to be the 21st century version of a Thieves Guild, complete with training."
Steve Shelley
Huntsville, AL

"Sounds like a conflict of interest to me when a non-profit organization like ACORN publicly supports Obama and then collects my tax dollars."
Sandy McQueen
Nashville, TN

"The answer to scant media coverage of the ACORN story is simple. The mainstream media only cares about ratings. Fox cares about the news."
Charles McClune
Waterford, MI

"Why are you such an apologist for Obama when it comes to ACORN? He knew exactly who he was dealing with and needs to take responsibility for his actions."
Rob Talbot
Lacey, WA

"ACORN-sponsored voter fraud is thwarting the democratic process. This alone can be the genesis of our nation's antipathy for such a corrupt organization."
Dale Klipfel
Amherst, NY

"Since the mainstream media has failed to report on ACORN, could it be the American Congress watches the Factor?"
Phil Hamilton
Ventura, CA

"I wonder about the 10 Senators who didn't vote on ACORN's funding at all. Were they out to lunch? Something more important to do?"
Mark Gilstad
North St. Paul, MN

COME TO DENMARK!
A Danish tourism agency ad features an attractive woman, played by an actress, looking for the father of her baby. The father is a tourist who she had a one-night stand with while visiting Denmark.

"The Denmark ad was too funny. You can't make this stuff up.'
Will Durant
Asheville, NC

"I don't care where in the world you are from, it is degrading to have a country prostitute you out for money. Is Denmark that hard up for tourists?"
Lisa Alexander
Ft. Wainwright, AK

"You seemed incredulous that Denmark would launch an ad campaign touting one-night stands. Have you followed the 'what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas' campaign?"
Allen Morse
Virginia Beach, VA

"Let's beat Miller to it: something is rotten in the state of Denmark."
Tom Zetty
Iowa City, IA

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, September 15

2009-09-15T20:01:00Z

ACORN SCANDAL
The nation continues to talk about the damning undercover videos of some ACORN employees telling "prostitutes" how to get tax breaks. But the liberal media, i.e. Charlie Gibson, don't seem to care about the story.

"Please keep up the pressure on ACORN and its supporters. Fox is the only news organization making an effort to inform the public about this corruption."
Joe Colaruotolo
Highland Village, TX

"If President Obama really wants to pay for his health care plan by eliminating waste and fraud, he should start with ACORN."
Baylis Howell
Belleview, FL

"Charles Gibson claims he didn't know about the ACORN story? He should start watching Fox News so he knows what's going on in the world."
Michael Trivisani
Fort Pierce, FL

"Considering Mr. Gibson's flippant response to the ACORN story, it is no wonder network news has become irrelevant."
Dale Fogle
Woodbridge, VA

"Charles Gibson may not know about ACORN, but he sure knew about the Bush Doctrine!"
Mike Sullivan
Chico, CA

"Too bad Charles Gibson doesn't work for Fox News. He'd be much better informed."
Danielle Conley
Madison, WI

"It is absolutely scandalous how most of the media has completely ignored the ACORN story. The L.A. Times hasn't published one article."
Rick Immel
Chatsworth, CA

"What hypocrisy! What's the difference between NBC's 'To Catch A Predator' shining a light on sex predators and Fox airing undercover ACORN videos?"
Linda Romano
Bigfork, MT

"You are absolutely correct: no one should have voted against cutting off funding for ACORN. Corrupt enterprises cannot be allowed to undermine this country."
Jeff Rowan
Connellsville, PA

"I'm astonished the mainstream media refuses to take the ACORN story seriously. It's as though they're all in the tank for the liberal agenda."
Mike Hyland
Union City, NJ

"It's possible some very good people work for ACORN, but when you look back at the recent string of bad behavior, nobody can defend ACORN's integrity."
Derek Sato
San Diego, CA

"Don't expect Eric Holder to go after ACORN. His hands are full investigating the CIA."
Fermaint Rios
Fort Myers, FL

"Let's hope this ACORN scandal shows we are still a nation governed by the rule of law rather than the powers that be!"
Michael Williamson
Clayton, CA

"It's time for our government to stop the insanity and put an end to the corruption at ACORN."
Brenda Vath
Cary, NC

CONGRESSIONAL SCOLDING
The House votes to admonish Rep. Joe Wilson for interrupting President Obama's speech to Congress. Megyn Kelly wonders if they don't have better things to do!

"I'm with Megyn Kelly. The speed at which Congress moved to scold Rep. Wilson is disproportionate to the speed at which they're moving to investigate ACORN."
Fred Ridgway
Richmond, VA

"Megyn never disappoints. If her baby has half her moxie, he or she will be a bold fresh piece of humanity."
Jerry Blout
San Antonio, TX

"Joe Wilson did not call Obama a liar. He said: 'you lie!' referring to a specific issue."
Glenn McKinney
Lewisburg, WV

"Why is it against the House rules to call the President a liar but there are no rules against the President lying?"
Steve Hayden
Ludlow, MA

"Joe Wilson owes no one an apology for speaking the truth. It's about time an elected Republican has the backbone to speak up."
Tom Hartzell
Sierra Vista, AZ

"The man had enough and could no longer contain himself. It was a normal human reaction."
Mary Lou Calamita
Wallingford, CT

"I greatly appreciate respectful behavior and civil discourse, but I also admire integrity, honesty and accountability. Joe Wilson gave a voice to many Americans."
Andrea Davis Stiles
Silver Creek, GA

"Great, the House has admonished Joe Wilson. Now onto the real question: was President Obama lying?"
Graeme Dick
Mission Viejo, CA

SAYING SORRY
Rapper Kanye West goes on Jay Leno's show to apologize for his behavior at the MTV awards. Does Taylor Swift forgive him? Is Dennis Miller buying the apology?

"Hurt people hurt people. Mr. West needs to confront and deal with his psychological issues."
Uno Bloom
Eagle River, WI

"Kanye's antics were clearly orchestrated to garner attention for himself, his agent, his label, etc. And it worked."
Geneva Holder
Raleigh, NC

"Dennis Miller says Kanye West's generation thinks the world revolves around them. I can't agree - there are a lot of young people who are willing to stand up for what's right."
Kara Kroeger
Marion, OH

"Mr. Miller is right. Kanye West is a pinhead and should be shunned."
Michelle Ambroggio
Clinton Township, MI

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-09-15T00:46:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was down over a point to 4.21 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 5.42 out of 10. Oops! How well will you do this week?

Go: This week's O'Quiz

Viewer Mail for Monday, September 14

2009-09-14T19:05:00Z

ANTI-SPENDING PROTESTS
Tens of thousands of Americans take to Washington to fight back against excessive government spending. But the media doesn't give this huge display much coverage.

"The reason the majority of protesters were white and middle class is because we are the majority taxpayers. We are the ones paying for Obama's spending spree."
Mary Thurman
Duncan, OK

"I have a beef with you. I resent being called an anti-Obama protester. I am anti-big government, pro-freedom and pro-republic."
Elaine Lawrence
Oden, AR

"Most of the people I spoke with at the 9/12 protest were independents and first-time demonstrators. It was more anti-Congress than anti-Obama."
Kelliene Fisher
East Bend, NC

"We are not afraid. We are fighting mad! We are not going to stand for this horrible excuse for governance anymore."
Steve Kemp
Oakland, CA

"There is the old media versus the new media. I think you and Bernie can figure out who is who."
Scott Demaree
Hot Springs Village, AR

"I agree with Bernie. The Factor should stop using the term 'mainstream media.' May I suggest 'has-been media?'"
Bradley Ward
Alpharetta, GA

"I'm sick of the race card. I don't care anymore about being called a racist by the liberal media. I want my country back!"
Carole Mears
Banning, CA

DRUG ADMISSION
Whitney Houston's tell-all interview with Oprah Winfrey focuses on her big-time addiction to drugs and her turbulent marriage to Bobby Brown.

"Ms. Houston almost seemed amused by the amount of drugs she and her husband consumed. How can celebrities speak freely about breaking the law and not be held accountable?"
Jeanne VanDusen-Smith
Alexandria, VA

"Whitney Houston is not just a good singer. She's one of the greatest talents of my lifetime. That she is willing to talk about conquering the death grip which nearly destroyed her talent is a good thing."
Kaye Arnett
LaCrescent, MN

TOUGHEN UP!
Far-left guy Bill Maher tells President Obama it's time to take the gloves off and fight for liberal causes.

"Could you please stop referring to Bill Maher as a comedian unless you can show something funny he's said in the past ten years?"
Brenda Houghton
Somerville, MA

"Why not just ignore Bill Maher and let him preach to his loony, far-left choir? I find him to be a flibbertigibbet."
D. Grant Cooper
Shasta Lake, CA

"Bill Maher calls Americans stupid and his audience applauds. Talk about a stupid constituency!"
Rich Connelly
Fairview, TX

"Bill Maher brands everyone who disagrees with President Obama a racist. Given the way he constantly disparages Sarah Palin, Maher must be sexist."
Sergio DeRango
Anaheim, CA

"Bill Maher seems to despise America. Perhaps he should move to Cuba or Venezuela where he might be happier."
Orian McGann
Perth, Australia

ULTIMATE PINHEAD!
Rapper Kanye West yanks the mic out of Taylor Swift's hand while she's accepting her Video Music Award, telling the audience Beyonce deserved the award instead. The whole world is talking about this pinhead move.

"Too bad Metallica wasn't up there accepting the award. I'd love to see what would happen if Kanye stripped the mic from their hands."
Mike Talian
Bayville, NJ

"I'm 9 years old and a huge Taylor Swift fan. Thanks for making Kanye West the ultimate pinhead for what he did to her."
Liam Higgins
Massapequa Park, NY

"I think Beyonce deserves to be a patriot for the classy way she treated Taylor Swift."
Brenda Houghton
Somerville, MA

"Just goes to show you that money can't buy class."
Brian Malloy
San Diego, CA

"I'm disappointed you didn't call out Kanye West for what he is: a racist, plain and simple."
Jack Miller
Little Rock, AR

"Kanye West has given a heartfelt apology for his behavior. Although I'm not a fan of his music, his apology shows he has character."
Patti Kendall
Denton, TX

"As a teenager who enjoys Kanye's music, I found his actions at the VMAs to be disgraceful and disappointing."
Shannon Thompson
Brentwood, TN

"Hopefully MTV will do something novel and stop showing Kanye West videos. Bad boys need a time-out."
Alan Craig
Tucson, AZ

MISCELLANEOUS
"After reading 'Bold Fresh,' my wife has developed O'Reilly fixation."
Eric Mathews
Hillsboro, OH

"Loved the bold and fresh purple tie. Very becoming."
Adrienne Terrebonne
Clarksville, TN

This week's new crossword: Health Care & The Speech

2009-09-11T21:25:00Z

This week's new crossword puzzle is filled with clues related to health care, health insurance and President Obama's address to Congress on reform. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Viewer Mail for Friday, September 11

2009-09-11T19:15:00Z

TERROR APATHY?
Does the far-left have the will to fight a brutal war on terror? How would they stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons? Liberals Ellis Henican and Leslie Marshall debate it with O'Reilly.

"America - and especially the far-left - needs to wake up and see the world for the dangerous place it is. Strength is the only thing the world respects."
Doug Kunze
Oak Harbor, WA

"Thanks for having Ellis on. He makes me laugh."
Jim Martin
Corinth, TX

"Not only does Ellis not have a clue about how to handle nutcase countries with nuclear weapons, he doesn't seem to want the U.S. to even succeed against Muslim terrorists."
Charles Knapp
Carson City, NV

"Ellis said he would 'squeeze' Iran in order to keep them from going nuclear. Does that mean he plans to give their president a hug?"
Rafael Hernandez
Paso Robles, CA

"When faced with evil, some are afraid to fight, some are afraid not to fight. My heroes are among the latter group."
Bob Jahn
Greenfield, IN

"This was your best interview ever with Ellis. He doesn't have a clue as to the consequences of his policy thoughts."
Brian Lovse
Austin, TX

"Your far-left guests suggested Iran has noble intentions in its pursuit of nuclear energy. Do they also think the U.S. should expand its nuclear program? Doubt it."
Brett Foute
Tarpon Springs, FL

CONSPIRACY KOOK
On the anniversary of 9/11, actor Charlie Sheen is still pushing a conspiracy theory about the attack.

"Thanks for exposing the traitor, Charlie Sheen. I will never go to see any movie he is in, nor will I watch his TV program anymore."
Larry Giantomas
Mishawaka, IN

"When you think of the TV show 'The Twilight Zone,' does Charlie Sheen come to mind?"
Jo Ann Dickey
Leawood, KS

"Charlie Sheen seems to think there are a million nuts like him who believe this ridiculous conspiracy theory. I hope he's wrong."
Steve Kapp, USAF (Ret.)
Grove, OK

"Please don't waste your time on the likes of Charlie Sheen, Rosie O'Donnell, and Janeane Garofalo. Their insane rantings have absolutely no effect on the lives of rational people."
Darrell Flenniken
Corona, CA

"If Charlie Sheen is right about 9/11, President Bush should be awarded an Oscar for his acting skills in the children's classroom on 9/11."
Paul Brake
Staten Island, NY

"The only thing that will stop crazies like Sheen from spouting this nonsense is for patriotic Americans to stop watching their dumb sitcoms."
Dan Galvin
Congers, NY

"I use Charlie Sheen as an example to my children of what long-term drug and alcohol use does to the brain."
Cindy Lee
Las Vegas, NV

"I'd love to see Charlie Sheen in the no spin zone. I can't believe this guy actually thinks our government plotted 9/11."
Lucien & Rhonda Falatico
Rome, NY

"Charlie Sheen thinks our government was plotting to kill its own members at the Pentagon? Too much Kool Aid!"
Charles Kay, M.D.
Aurora, CO

"Charlie Sheen must be desperate for attention if he's trying to cash in on 9/11."
James Howell
Saint Pauls, NC

"I served in the Navy for 20 years with pride. I find it very upsetting when Charlie Sheen says he is speaking on my behalf."
Bobby Harris
Keene, TX

DEEP IN HIDING?
Eight years after 9/11, has the trail to the world's most dangerous terrorist gone cold?

"We've offered $25 million for bin Laden. The Pakistani government gets billions of dollars from the U.S. to fight terrorism. Why would they hand over bin Laden?"
Malu Makhijani
Hackensack, NJ

"Bin Laden is dead. He was killed in the caves with fire bombs."
Rem Howell
York, SC

"What if bin Laden is already dead? I'm not aware of any evidence to support he's still living."
James Cockerham
Paintsville, KY

"Col. Hunt's assertion that lack of political will has held us back from capturing UBL is absolutely correct."
Marc Marry
Livonia, MI

"I'm disappointed that President Bush did not get bin Laden, and I'm pretty sure our current President won't either."
Linda Muse
Guayaquil, Ecuador

"I appreciate the credit you give President Obama in the Afghanistan war. My country is fighting alongside yours, and it's important not to let ideology seep into the discussion."
Ryan Smash
Sydney, Australia

DUMBEST THINGS
One of the selections for dumbest thing of the week is the ongoing controversy over Joe Wilson heckling President Obama.

"I understand that Rep. Wilson's comments lacked decorum. But wouldn't it be nice if Congress and the President were also required by law to tell the truth?"
Jim Thielen
Tallahassee, FL

"I don't remember the Code Pink ladies having to apologize for always interrupting President Bush."
Raeanne Martin
Van Alstyne, TX

"What about when the Dems booed Bush? What about Pelosi calling our CIA agents liars? Reid calling Bush a loser and a liar?"
Donna Checca
Massillon, OH

"You say the Republicans should be reprimanded for heckling the President. But Joe Wilson already apologized to Obama, but the Congress is demanding another apology."
Harriet Doran
Murrieta, CA

"It seems odd that Joe Wilson's individual outburst is a decorum infraction, but group outbursts seem to be acceptable."
Jack Azevedo
Santa Clara, CA

MISCELLANEOUS
"Both of my parents are liberals and won't let me read 'Bold Fresh.' Are they pinheads?"
Melissa Davis
Marietta, GA

Viewer Mail for Thursday, September 10

2009-09-10T19:49:00Z

YOU LIE!
Republican Congressman Joe Wilson shouts "You lie!" when President Obama told the crowd illegal aliens wouldn't be covered under his health care plan. Factor guest Ann Coulter agrees.

"Ann Coulter was right to bring Obama's lies to the forefront now. If we wait until the final bill is written, it will be too late."
Randy Nicholson
Boise, ID

"As a conservative myself, Ann Coulter strikes me as an angry conservative. She has some issues."
Doug Peterson
Madison, WI

"Ann Coulter destroyed you on the government regulation debate."
Leah Gibson
Austin, TX

ACORN UNDERCOVER
Secret video of ACORN employees telling people how to dodge tax laws and set up brothels.

"How could the ACORN employees not have seen this outrageous story as a potential set-up? This can't be the first time these people have committed this type of crime."
Jeff Kahlbaugh
Gettysburg, PA

"Well at least ACORN is appropriately named. It's unquestionably seedy."
Ed Starcke
Houston, TX

"Don't be surprised if there is no Congressional investigation into ACORN."
Dan McVicker
San Bernardino, CA

"ACORN's statement that the employees were fired because they didn't live up to their standards of professionalism is ludicrous. I would submit that those are indeed ACORN's standards."
Bruce Thompson
Sierra Vista, AZ

"Fraud, waste and abuse? How much taxpayer money would be saved if ACORN ceased to exist?"
Marion Rauch
Ocala, FL

"ACORN - helping America build one brothel at a time."
Debbie Shilakis
East Longmeadow, MA

"I hate to appear cynical, but I find it hard to believe those fired ACORN employees will just go away. ACORN can't allow them to become disgruntled ex-employees speaking to the press."
Pam Bassett
Martinez, CA

PETA PROVOCATIVE
CNN'S airport network bans an animal rights ad featuring Pam Anderson posing as airport security.

"I'm confused by this controversy. It's wrong to show this ad, but ok to show horror movie previews with people's body parts getting cut off?"
Harry Buchanan
Laurel, MD

"For a vegetarian group like PETA, I find it odd they would show so much raw meat in their ads."
Patty Jones
Argos, IN

HITLER SEX AD
A safe sex PSA in Germany features a woman having casual sex with the biggest villain in history.

"I found the PSA to be more silly than impactful. It would be more effective to show real people suffering from AIDS."
Phyllis Carson
Baltimore, MD

"AIDS is no longer an urgent health concern, so the Hitler scare tactic was inappropriate."
Fred Schwartz
Burlington, NJ

"The real tragedy is that if ads connecting Adolf Hitler to AIDS were shown on American television, many kids wouldn't recognize him."
Earl Tilford
Tuscaloosa, AL

"If the ad were run in the United States, it should feature bin Laden instead of Hitler."
Jawad Ahmed
Karachi, Pakistan

NEW IDOL JUDGE!
Comedian Ellen DeGeneres will replace Paula Abdul as a judge on 'American Idol.'

"Ellen DeGeneres is about as qualified to be a judge on that show as I am."
David Mauldin
Valdosta, GA

"Ellen is a comedian, she has no musical experience. This is a horrible choice."
Gary Bernhardt
Olathe, KS

"Ellen's biggest recording success was voicing the character of Dori in 'Finding Nemo.' She's no Paula Abdul."
Peter Sherman
Fort Collins, CO

"'American Idol' electing Ellen as its new judge has less to do with her fit on the show than it does with Hollywood pushing the gay agenda."
Brad Welkington
Dallas, TX

MISCELLANEOUS
"I just finished 'Bold Fresh,' and I must say excellent! You are a modest man."
Matthew Ungurean
Coshocton, OH

"I think you should make a bumper sticker that reads: 'O'Reilly/Beck 2012.' I'd be the first one to get it!"
Travis Knight
Wilmington, NC

"Happy 60th birthday, Bill. You have made a difference in the world."
Loree Oak
San Jose, CA

Bill's Latest Column: The John Adams Project

2009-09-10T19:30:00Z

In his new column this week, Bill reveals the potentially dangerous actions of the John Adams Project and asks why the mainstream media isn't covering this story.

Go: Bill's latest column

Viewer Mail for Wednesday, September 9

2009-09-09T19:48:00Z

HEALTH CARE SPEECH
President Obama delivers a prime-time address to Congress on health care reform.

"I'm astonished at how many cheap shots the President took at Bush. This won't help in his desire to work in a bi-partisan way to pass health care reform."
Corey Coleman
Los Angeles, CA

"While I thought many of the President's points were valid, he has yet to address what kind of coverage illegal aliens will get under his plan."
Doreen Brautovich
Palm Desert, CA

"I don't think President Obama's 48 minute speech showed his passion for health care. I think he just likes the sound of his own voice."
Brooke Franklin
Grapevine, TX

"I'm not an Obama supporter, but I was impressed by his speech tonight. Let's hope he stays true to his word."
Ron Walley
Tampa, FL

"Thanks for your straight-shooting analysis tonight. The President reminded me of the red tag appliance salesman - I shake his hand with my right hand, hold onto my wallet with my left."
Jeremy Sell
Petersburg, WV

"Obama's speech wasn't really that long. It was the Congressional pinheads who kept giving him standing ovations, dragging the whole thing out."
Jack Gretz
Fishers, IN

"President Obama said he wouldn't sign a bill that added a dime to the deficit. He's right - it'll add a whole lot more!"
Angie Potts
Michigan

"Obama's speech made his plan sound pretty simple. So why would it take 1,100 pages of rhetoric to accomplish something so simple?"
Geoff Mickelson
Humboldt, IA

"Mr. Rove is right. Obama didn't take the public option off the table. If anything, he emphasized it time after time."
Dinah Cowen
Jonesboro, LA

"My grandfather always taught me that if sounds too good to be true, chances are it is too good to be true."
Jerry Carl
Mobile, AL

"You said you could give Obama's speech in 20 minutes. I could do it in 5 seconds - 'You irreverent dolts, how dare you question me!'"
Mark Fleming
Cincinnati, OH

"The President's speech was a farce and a disappointment. He didn't even bother to acknowledge the concerns of Americans at town hall protests."
Beth Christo
Holly Springs, NC

"As usual, President Obama's speech was well-delivered, but specious."
Huw Evans
Paluma, Australia

FACTOR DEBUT
Top presidential advisor David Axelrod enters the no spin zone for the first time to try to sell Obama's health care plan.

"I'd rather have my teeth pulled than watch Axelrod try to answer questions."
Gus Walters
St. Louis, MO

"I'm a registered nurse and upset that Mr. Axelrod said all nurses agree with President Obama's health care reform. I certainly do not."
Mary Ann Brower
Des Moines, IA

"Good job with Axelrod. You had him dancing! Keep digging for the truth."
Rich Connelly
Fairview, TX

"The President's health care plan must be in serious trouble for David Axelrod to finally appear on the Factor."
Doug Radunzel
Colorado Springs, CO

"You went out of your way to be gracious, but it was obvious Mr. Axelrod did not want to answer your questions."
Steve Flanagan
Ottawa, Canada

WARMING FARCE
Environmentalists at Greenpeace believe climate change is spreading wildfires more rapidly. Our Accuweather meteorologist will debunk the global warming argument.

"Thanks a lot, Joe Bastardi. Now I need to get a 'fight global cooling' bumper sticker!"
Jodi Giddings
Forest Grove, OR

"As a science teacher, I challenge my students to think like Mr. Bastardi. Judgments should be made on hard data."
Rob Massa
Girard, KS

"Finally, a journalist has the guts to interview a real expert on the inconvenient lie of global warming."
John Donahue
Aldie, VA

MILLER TIME
"Only Dennis Miller got it right about Obama's speech - if it was so important to the American people, why was the President 15 minutes late?"
Dan Donahue
Riceboro, GA

"Laughter is the best medicine. Maybe you and Miller can solve the health care crisis."
Diana Gallagher
Rockford, IL

"It is likely most of your audience didn't catch many of Dennis' references, but for someone who loves metaphorical comedy, tonight's segment was a historical event."
Jeffrey Bleil, Ph.D.
Valrico, FL

"Miller's comparison of Nancy Pelosi's facial expression with a walleyed pike was a little bit harsh. How could he say something so hurtful to a fish?"
Kirby Kauk
Reedley, CA

PINHEAD ALERT!
Actor Charlie Sheen is all over the Internet pushing a crazy 9/11 conspiracy.

"I love 'Two and a Half Men,' but I will never watch it again."
Herb Mann
Kingwood, TX

"Talk about pinheads! Charlie Sheen and his 9/11 theory defines tomfoolery."
Michael Verton
Lake Ariel, PA

"Charlie Sheen is worse than a pinhead. He has been drinking too much of the Kool-Aid."
Jacqueline Dallum
Moses Lake, WA

"We may disagree with the 9/11 truthers, but they're not enemies of America. They love this country and have been misled."
John Hurley
Virginia Beach, VA

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-09-08T23:15:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was down slightly to 5.42 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 5.75 out of 10. How well will you do this week?

Go: This week's O'Quiz

Viewer Mail for Tuesday, September 8

2009-09-08T22:18:00Z

JOHN ADAMS SOCIETY
A group of far-left attorneys is secretly photographing CIA agents and sending them to terror suspects at Guantanamo. Factor Producer Dan Bank confronts one of the lawyers.

"Great reporting by Dan Bank. Ms. Ginsberg simultaneously blames America first and excuses terrorism."
Karl Jenkins
Phoenix, AZ

"I hope President Obama looks into the John Adams Project and condemns what they're doing. He likes basketball -- well, this is a slam dunk."
George Gerritsen
Foster City, CA

"The people at the John Adams Project are nothing short of traitors. How can the CIA be expected to protect this country under these circumstances?"
Steven Postalwait
Kerrville, TX

"If somebody violated my personal space the way your reporter did to that woman, he would have been physically assaulted."
Cyril Carag
Milpitas, CA

BECK VS. OBAMA
Factor anchor Glenn Beck takes on Obama's green job czar Van Jones -- and the radical Mr. Jones resigns!

"Shame on you for making a big joke out of the resignation of Van Jones. Glenn Beck should have punched that smile off of your face."
Carl Minnich
Henderson, NV

"Glenn Beck is a troublemaker of the best kind. He has risked everything to expose the truth and deserves respect."
Maddy Vigil
Naples, FL

"I'm glad you found Glenn Beck's story about the people who surround Barack Obama so amusing. I don't find it funny at all!"
Ron Bella
Centennial, CO

"Wake up and smell the coffee. Van Jones is a bad apple, and Obama knew exactly what he was getting."
Sue Danner
Spring, TX

"It was unprofessional for you to mock Glenn Beck's Van Jones story. He was not a small player in the administration."
Marty Sidor
Queen Creek, AZ

ANCHORS AWAY
Did Charlie Gibson's elitist interview with Sarah Palin hurt him enough to eventually force his resignation as the anchor of ABC World News?

"You were right about Charlie Gibson losing viewers over his interview with Sarah Palin. I'm 70 years old, used to watch him every day, but haven't watched him since that interview."
Judy Tolloti
New Philadelphia, OH

"I'm a female conservative who stopped watching Charlie Gibson after his Sarah Palin interview."
Marge Dabakian
Mahwah, NJ

"I'm certain Gibson was forced to leave the anchor chair at ABC News. It will come out eventually."
Carol & Charlie Green
Kansas City, MO

"Charlie Gibson ruined his career with the condescending manner in which he conducted his interview with Sarah Palin. You are absolutely right."
Linda Daniels
Newport Beach, CA

"You hit the nail on the head! Charlie Gibson's tone and demeanor with Sarah Palin were insulting."
Josee Telfer
Fairfax, VT

BACK-TO-SCHOOL CONTROVERSY
President Obama delivers a back-to-school address to American school children that has some conservatives - and parents - upset.

"I'm not an Obama fan, but my kids sat down to watch his speech today. The President's message about the importance of education was right on target."
Elaine Trainor
Pearl River, NY

"Don't young school children have enough pressure without the President telling them they have to save the planet?"
Don Urtz
Richfield Springs, NY

"Forcing school children to listen to Obama's speech and penalizing kids who didn't are two more reasons to support homeschooling."
Dr. Lynne Divis
Wintersville, OH

"It's a sad state of affairs when Americans must be weary of the President talking to their kids."
Alan Good
Palm City, FL

"I elected to let my 6-year-old watch Obama's speech at school, but he wished I hadn't because the kids who were excused got a second recess. Parents can't win!"
Michael Simrell
Peoria, AZ

"No group of American citizens should be forced to hear a speech from a political leader no matter how well-intentioned the message."
Dave Tolsma
Lemoyne, PA

RED CARPET COUPLE
Director Oliver Stone takes Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez to the Venice Film Festival. What a date!

"Don't you just hate it when couples wear matching outfits?"
John Tartaro
Peoria, AZ

"Oliver Stone has complete elitist envy of the dictator Hugo Chavez. It should come as no surprise that they are now best friends."
Spencer Heninger
Logan, UT

"I can't believe Oliver Stone is making a movie about Hugo Chavez. He is telling people Chavez is a good president, which is a lie."
Fernando Perez
Caracas, Venezuela

MISCELLANEOUS
"While I'm glad you got to go on vacation, I'm happy you're finally back. I was in withdrawal."
Patti Cagle
Cameron Park, CA

"Over the weekend, I saw a very attractive woman wearing an 'American Patriot' t-shirt. She made the t-shirt look so much better than you ever could."
Michael Hambright
Overland Park, KS

"I don't always agree with you, but I applaud your efforts to keep us informed."
Judy Ball
New Bedford, MA

"I read 'Bold Fresh' in the hospital when my fourth son was born last week, and loved it! Our second son definitely has the O'Reilly no nonsense attitude."
Kurt de Pfyffer
Carlsbad, CA

This week's new crossword: Back to School

2009-09-04T18:59:00Z

With Labor Day here and summer vacation over, this week's crossword takes us back to school. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

Bill's Latest Column: Panic at the White House

2009-09-03T18:15:00Z

In his new column this week, Bill takes a look at the Obama administration's approach to health care reform, and how the White House's panic levels are impacting those tactics.

Go: Bill's latest column

The O'Quiz: Test your current events knowledge!

2009-08-31T18:03:00Z

Test your knowledge of the news with a brand new O'Quiz for this week. Last week's average score was up over a full point to 5.75 questions correct out of 10 from the previous week's average of 4.66 out of 10. How well will you do this week?

Go: This week's O'Quiz

This week's new crossword: Mad Men

2009-08-28T22:12:00Z

This week's puzzle deals with "Mad Men"--not Madison Avenue advertising wizards, but certifiable lunatics. Play online or print it for the road!

Go: O'Reilly crossword

This week's Backstage Conversation is online!

2009-08-27T23:09:00Z

This week a Premium Member asks Bill about the Census being moved to the White House's purview. See Bill answer this and many other questions in this week's Backstage Conversation!

Go: This week's Backstage Conversation

Bill's Latest Column: The Leadership Factor

2009-08-27T19:29:00Z

In Bill's new column this week, Bill examines President Obama's leadership style and compares it to some notable leaders from the past.

Go: Bill's latest column