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Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Parchments
The status of the presidential race


Guests: Karl Rove

"Two new polls today are very good news for President Obama, yet the polling in general continues to be fluid - that is, there's a wide discrepancy in the results...The Washington Post poll in Florida has President Obama leading Gov. Romney by four points - 51% to 47% - but the New York Times poll has Obama up by nine points - 53% to 44% - same state, same likely voter scenario. In Ohio, the Washington Post has President Obama up by eight points - 52% to 44%. The Times poll has Obama up by 10 - 53% to 43%. However, in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll, the national survey, the race is tied - a dead heat 46% to 46%. On this day four years, Rasmussen had Mr. Obama up five points over John McCain...

"The presidential race is going to come down to just a handful of states, Ohio and Florida being the most important. Gov. Romney must win in both places...Talking Points has said from the very beginning that the debates this year will be the deciding factor...

"The problem Mitt Romney has right now is the perception that he's out of touch with the folks. The President has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on ads stating that, and the Gov. does come across as a classic rich guy...

"The President's record is dubious, to say the least, but many Americans aren't paying attention and will vote on emotion."

Mr. Rove doubted the state polling, walking viewers through what he referred to as a "partisan matrix" to the polling. He cautioned against endowing these polls with a false scientific precision they simply don't have, and pointed out that NYT/CBS polling has a long history of inaccuracy, dating all the way back to Reagan vs. Carter.

The Factor worried that when news agencies report the polling and it shows that Barack Obama has leapt out to a big lead in some key states, it gets into people's minds and that helps the President because people perceive him as a winner.

In closing, Rove called the race a toss-up in both Florida and Ohio at this point.
New polling on key battleground states
Guests: Gov. John Kasich

A Quinnipiac poll has Gov. Kasich's approval rating at 48%, so the Factor questioned why Romney doing as well in Ohio. Gov. Kasich maintained he doesn't even pay attention to the polling, because it all depends on what you ask, how you ask it, and the sample. He said it will be very close in Ohio, going right down to the wire and coming down to who convinces people they can create jobs.

The Factor opined that since Gov. Kasich is performing so well in the state and he's a Republican, he would assume Romney could more easily win the state. Gov. Kasich countered that his personal performance helps, but people are still questioning whether Romney understands their problems.

Despite this, the Factor still expressed surprise that Romney isn't doing much better in Ohio. Gov. Kasich mentioned a recent overflow crowd at a Romney campaign event, and predicted that the more Ohio voters see Mitt Romney, the more they'll like him.
Is the presidential polling methodology accurate?
Guests: Dick Morris

Dick Morris recently predicted Romney will carry Florida and Ohio and possibly Pennsylvania - is he standing by that in light of these recent polls? He sure is, and he accused the media of a deliberate effort to encourage Obama supporters and discourage Romney donors by portraying this race as an Obama cakewalk.

The Factor asked whether he could back up his provocative claim that these polling outfits are cooking the books to help Obama. Morris answered that the polling is assuming a higher turnout among African-Americans, Hispanics and young people, which makes their likely voting sample much more Democratic than it will be and weighs the polls inaccurately. He insisted these polls are assuming the same turnout as 2008, which was an outlier and won't be repeated in 2012.
Putting the presidential polling in perspective
Guests: Scott Rasmussen and Larry Sabato, PhD

Scott Rasmussen contended the race is close, it's not a blowout. He said Romney does have some ground to make up in Florida and Ohio, but not much and within the margin of error.

The Factor suggested that Rove and Morris made a good case that the polling isn't accurate, but it has an effect on perception. Sabato, however, stated he believes in polling averages, which show the President is leading the race nationally by about 4 points, leading Ohio by several points, handily winning in Pennsylvania, and in a toss-up situation in Florida. On the media influence, Sabato said: "People are not empty vessels into which the media can pour opinions." He claimed Americans only accept the parts of arguments that reinforce the biases they already have.

Rasmussen explained that the President has made strides in the polling because consumer confidence has improved a bit and Romney isn't convincing people who are concerned about the economy that he'd make it any better.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addresses the United Nations
Guests: Dennis Miller

The Iranian president spoke at the United Nations this week. Miller referred to the U.N. as a useless, jerkwater organization, and proclaimed its headquarters should be sent to Port-au-Prince or Darfur so that the "dirtbags" in these rogue nations aren't rewarded with trips to Manhattan.

On the election, the Factor forecasted that if the President does well in the debates, he'll probably win the election. He inquired what a second Obama term would look like, to which Miller responded that more problems would just be pushed down the road. He made a recommendation to Factor viewers: if Obama wins and you're making $45K a year and working 60 hours a week, just quit because you're busting your hump for no reason.

When the Factor teed Miller up to weigh in on the NFL referee scandal, Miller jokingly wondered why the NFL would allow Biden to ref that Monday night Green Bay game. All kidding aside, the Factor commented that he felt sorry for the replacement refs. Miller said this should remind everyone that the National Football League owners just want to put as much money in their pockets as possible; nothing else matters to them.
Study: The more we know about celebrities' politics, the less we like them
Guests: Juliet Huddy


A University of New Hampshire study found that celebrities who talk openly about their politics become less popular in the public marketplace. Somebody tell Oprah Winfrey, Ted Nugent, Eva Longoria, and Jon Voigt!

According to Huddy after her conversation with the lead author of the study, when celebs espouse beliefs that conflict with our own, they can fall out of favor. But, she went on to say that we're also very forgiving if we really like the particular star.

The Factor argued that some celebrities, like Sean Penn who is forever branded a far-left guy, aren't ever really forgiven. He also claimed that Americans respect free speech, but if a celebrity attacks a politician, they must explain why they're attacking them, which most cannot or will not do.

As a perfect example of someone who won't back up her beef, the Factor played a clip of comedian Sarah Silverman starring in an ad about voter ID laws, declaring that showing an ID at the polls will make it hard for black, elderly, poor people and students.
A Tip for the guys
If you want to prosper in our competitive society, don't wear crummy shoes. Guys, you only need two pairs of shoes - one black and one brown. Looking sharp often translates into making money.
Book Mentions
Check out the books mentioned during this show.
Here Come the Black Helicopters!: UN Global Governance and the Loss of Freedom
by Dick Morris and Eileen McGann

Read more...
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