By Bill O'Reilly

Tomorrow is the Wisconsin primary the polls consensus is Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum by seven points. Also voters will casts ballots in Maryland and Washington, D.C. Governor Romney is well ahead in those places.

If the Governor does win Wisconsin it's pretty much all over and the Republican Party can then shift into trying to diminish President Obama. The latest Gallup poll has the President beating Mitt Romney head to head 49 percent to 45 percent. But with all the problems Governor Romney has had in the primaries, that lead should be much bigger. The fact that Mitt Romney is so close to an incumbent President is very telling.

The truth is the polls will not matter until the first debate next fall. That is where the election will be won or lost. Three debates will be heavily watched, of course. And if Mr. Romney can hold his own, he is likely to defeat Barack Obama.

That's because Mr. Obama's leadership is in question. The economy is still shaky, oil prices are hurting working Americans and the President's vision of an entitlement state funded by wealthy Americans is controversial to say the least.

But Governor Romney has problems of his own. He is perceived as being out of touch with the regular folks, has not been able to convince conservatives he is one of them and his personality is kind of laid-back. If he hopes to defeat the eloquent Barack Obama, his rhetoric has to become much sharper.

Romney should be studying tapes of Ronald Reagan who himself was a laid back kind of guy but who put together some devastating one liners that pinned President Carter to the wall. Romney will have to do that with President Obama.

As "Talking Points" has been saying, the election is the most important one in our lifetimes because it offers a stark contrast between big government, income redistribution and small government, self-reliance.

Vice President Biden puts it this way.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think this is going to be an incredibly stark choice the American people are going to have not just on the economy but on social policy as well as educational policy. I think across the board they have been very straightforward about where they are and... and so in that sense, God love them, they are not hiding the ball.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'REILLY: All right, Biden talking about the Republican Party. And it's true, the GOP is basically telling folks that Obama's big government vision is destroying the country. The President, of course, is the exact opposite. But again all the bloviating in the world won't matter until those debates next fall.

And that's "The Memo."

Pinheads & Patriots

Sarah Palin a guest host on "The Today Show" tomorrow morning. And the preview did not go real well.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MATT LAUER, CO-HOST, NBC'S "THE TODAY SHOW": We did read a tweet you sent out that said, "Going to go rogue and infiltrate some turf." What exactly does that mean?

SARAH PALIN, FORMER GOVERNOR OF ALASKA (via phone): What do you think it means?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You're taking over Matt's dressing room.

LAUER: What are you doing to prepare? Are you reading some newspapers?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh! And it begins.

PALIN: Great. OK, that's a fine how do you do? That's a great start. Here we go.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'REILLY: All right, still have to wait until tomorrow morning to see who the "Pinheads and Patriots" are in that situation.

— You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads & Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com.