Hey BillOReilly.com Premium Members. Welcome to another version of the No Spin News, just for you guys, for Wednesday, the 17th of August 2016.
Donald Trump’s campaign is reorganizing. Obviously, numbers are sliding in the individual states, overall he’s still pretty close for all the trouble that Trump has had. He’s still…he’s up this week, according to the LA Times, only one point behind Hillary Clinton in their tracking poll. And there’s another poll, I think it’s a Monmouth poll, he’s six down to Clinton—but that’s still pretty close for all the chaos.
Now, as I told you, these polls really don’t matter until it gets into about a month from today, then it’ll start to matter a little bit more.
But clearly they’re worried over in the Trump palace, and they’re bringing in the Breitbart guy, , and , these are veterans of the culture wars. Kellyanne knows Republican precincts pretty well; I don’t know Bannon. I think I’ve spoken to him a couple of times on the phone, but I don’t really know him.
Anyway, the signal is we’ve got to change. So Trump, doesn’t want to lose…I just look at the map and it’s going to be so tough for Trump.
He’s got to pull off a massive upset in states like Pennsylvania and perhaps Michigan. He’s not going to win Virginia. Trump is not going to win Virginia. It’s not going to happen. He didn’t do well there in the primaries, for some reason Virginians don’t like him. If I were him, I wouldn’t even bother spending much money there, because you’ve got Kaine as the second on the Clinton ticket. I mean, it’s a write-off.
Now North Carolina that’s a different story. He’s going to have to fight it out there, he has to win it. And I don’t believe the stuff about Georgia being in play for Hillary Clinton. I don’t believe that. I think that Trump will take the southern states with a possible exception of Florida, and that’s it. I mean, if he loses Florida it’s over.
Trump has got to spend a lot of time and money in Florida—try to get the white vote out. And that’s not saying it in a racist way. Look, the polling right now is two percent of African Americans are going to vote for Donald Trump. Two percent. No matter what he says or does, you’re not going to be able to override the demonization that has gone on. You can’t.
Even if I ran I’d get five percent of the African American vote—not because I don’t care about African Americans, I do, and my policies would help them dramatically, but because I’ve been demonized there. They don’t watch The Factor en masse. We have Black Americans watching, we have Black Americans BillOReilly.com Premium Members, but en masse? Is it a cultural thing to watch The O’Reilly Factor and the Fox News Channel in general? No it isn’t.
So it’s very, very hard for Trump to overcome the demonization that has already taken place. He’s got a better chance to do it in the Hispanic communities, where a lot of Hispanic Americans are traditionally conservative. They like religion, they like social order, they’re not thrilled about illegal immigration running out of control, sanctuary cities…
The media portrays Hispanics approving of those things, I think it’s split. So I think that Trump could, in states like Nevada for example, where there’s a conservative base already in place, he could pull that off there. Colorado, it’s going to be tough. Colorado, a younger state, demos don’t favor him. It’s going to be tough.
But he’s got to win Pennsylvania and then pick off Michigan. In New York he’s down twenty-five in his home state. Why? Because New York City is so dominant in the voting. Eight million people in New York City. The rest of the state might go for Trump en masse, Buffalo is a liberal place and Albany is liberal but they aren’t a lot of votes.
But New York City, with the minority vote being huge here, just like in Philadelphia, I don’t see how Trump wins it, New York. I don’t see it.
So they’ve got to do state by state now. Texas will go for Trump, Louisiana will go for Trump, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, all of those I think Trump will win as it stands now, unless he goes and does something nutty.
And then the final thing is that it isn’t about Hillary Clinton. I thought it was going to be more about her, but it isn’t. Democrats are going to go for her. Liberals are going to go for her. But is she going to mobilize great numbers of people? No she isn’t. It’s about Trump and how many independents and how many people who don’t usually vote will come out for him. So it’s really about him and whether he knows that or not I’m not sure.
Thanks for being Premium Members and we’ll talk to you again tomorrow.
