By Bill O'Reilly

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll today has President Obama's job approval rating at 49 percent with 49 percent disapproving. Despite the tie, the President is up in the approval rating over the last few weeks.

But there is another poll that is very telling, this one from Gallup. It says there are only 10 states out of 50 where Mr. Obama's approval rating is about 50 percent. He's most popular in Hawaii. But look at California, just 50.1 percent of the folks in that liberal state like the job the President is doing.

On the disapproval side Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Wyoming, West Virginia lead the pack. But again only 10 states are bullish on Obama, certainly bad news for him.

"Talking Points" hates to say this but the presidential race is likely an Obama/Romney contest. And it will be waged in just 12 states. Most of the other 38 are pretty much spoken for. That could change if the economy gets worse. But right now Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin are the so-called swing states.

And in those places, President Obama is not, not over 50 percent approval in any of them. That is why you watch THE FACTOR. We're not in business to promote any political candidate. You're smart enough to know who you want to vote for.

Our analysis is trying to pinpoint what is likely to happen in the presidential race. If the Republicans can stay on message, that Mr. Obama is incompetent in economic matters, the GOP has a better than even chance of winning not only the White House but the Senate as well as retaining the House of Representatives.

That would give the new Republican president the power to undo what President Obama has done. But getting to that point is going to be very difficult. Democrats will unleash hell against Mitt Romney if he's the guy. They'll dig up everything he has ever done financially. And they'll paint him as a corrupt rich person who doesn't care about the folks.

And Governor Romney has got to avoid saying things like this.

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ROMNEY: I'm in this race because I care about Americans. I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it.

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O'REILLY: Because Romney said the words "I'm not concerned about the very poor," the Democrats now have a headline. Even though the governor qualified that he was saying in a logical way I'll fix the safety nets. That doesn't matter. Expect to see "I'm not concerned about the very poor" all over the place until Election Day.

The converse, of course, is true as well. Back in 2008, President Obama said that a $9 trillion debt was unpatriotic. He was outraged about it. Now that quote is being rammed down the president's throat because America has built a $15 trillion debt on Mr. Obama's watch.

So you can see how this is going to unfold over the next months. It will be very intense.

And that's "The Memo."

Pinheads & Patriots.

It is my pleasure to announce that the FOX News Channel is now the No. 1 in cable news for ten straight years. To celebrate that achievement, some of the big guns at FOX News rang the opening bell at NASDAQ.

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(BELL RINGING)

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O'REILLY: Dobbs and Greta, but wasn't there, wasn't invited. Now, I understand. They didn't want to frighten the market. It would be down hundred points if I showed up with a stick, all right? So that's why that didn't happen.

Now, all... everybody here at FNC are patriots. You know that. Including the guy at the top, Roger Ailes, who literally invented this network. All right?

- You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads & Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com.