Doom sells.  Always has, always will.  One of the greatest purveyors of doom was Dr. Paul Ehrlich, who died last week at age 93.  In 1968, Ehrlich wrote his famous screed ‘The Population Bomb,’ which became one of the most influential books of the 20th century.

The book’s first line said it all: ‘The battle to feed all of humanity is over.’  Ehrlich confidently predicted that ‘hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death’ in the very near future.  His crystal ball also told him that Earth’s population would shrink to 1.5 billion because of food shortages; in fact, today more than 8 billion people are on the planet, most of them at least adequately fed.  But the book inspired tremendous fear, almost panic, and some nations took drastic measures to curb population growth.  According to Smithsonian Magazine, in China alone, millions of women were forcibly sterilized.

The not-so-good doctor was wrong about pretty much everything.  Much like the British doomsayer Thomas Malthus two centuries earlier, Ehrlich didn’t account for human ingenuity and technological advances.  Scientists invented new ways to grow more crops than ever imagined, the population kept growing, and mass starvation never occurred.  Still, after Paul Ehrlich died, the reliably ridiculous New York Times said his predictions were ‘premature.’  Not dead wrong, but premature.

The Times and other leading liberal lights probably also think that Al Gore’s predictions were premature.  While Ehrlich gained widespread fame, Gore made a fortune by preaching the gospel of ‘global warming,’ aka climate change.  The former VP has amassed a net worth estimated at $300-million by prophesying the end of the world as we know it.  He predicted the snow on Mt. Kilimanjaro would vanish, seas would rise by 20 feet, and severe heat would lead to mass migration.  When it came to accuracy, Al Gore is perhaps rivaled only by Paul Ehrlich.

All this is nothing new.  ‘Experts’ have been predicting doom for thousands of years, whether from famine or flood or pestilence or nuclear winter.  There is a market for stark pessimism, which may be a function of human nature.  And without getting too deep into politics, data show that people on the left are more prone to believing the worst.  Very few conservatives took Al Gore seriously, but he remains a venerated figure among many lefties, invited to share his wisdom at the most prestigious conferences.

As for Dr. Doom, just three years ago, the once-respected ’60 Minutes’ devoted a segment to Paul Ehrlich, during which he repeated many long-debunked claims.  There are ‘too many people,’ he proclaimed, adding that ‘humanity is not sustainable.’  Correspondent Scott Pelley looked on with awe and admiration.  And just last week, while snowstorms pummeled much of the country, CNN predicted that ‘human-caused climate change’ will soon unleash a disastrous heat wave.  Maybe it was one more chance to spread fear before the new owners cause a true climate change at CNN.

In 1980, Paul Ehrlich made one of the most publicized wagers in modern history when he bet economist Julian Simon that five key minerals would rise in price over the coming decade because of inevitable shortages.  All five commodities got cheaper, and Ehrlich was the big loser.  Of course, it's entirely possible that the New York Times has it right and Ehrlich’s apocalyptic predictions were not wrong, merely ‘premature.’  Perhaps starvation and mass death are right around the corner after all.  

 

But a word of advice:  Don’t bet on it!