By Bill O'Reilly

Newt Gingrich's campaign has fallen apart. Most of his staff has quit, and the former speaker is pretty much done as a serious candidate. There's always a possibility of a miraculous comeback, but things look very bad for Mr. Gingrich, who says creative differences led to the split:

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NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There is a fundamental strategic difference between the traditional consulting community and the kind of campaign I want to run. Now, we'll find out over the next year who is right.

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Mr. Gingrich lost 16 employees. The situation is similar to Fred Thompson's presidential run in 2008. Things just never got on track.

Also, Mitt Romney says he will not participate in the Iowa straw vote in August. You may remember that last time around Gov. Romney spent about $1 million trying to win that vote but came in second to Mike Huckabee. This time the Romney camp says it will not participate in any straw votes. That's because social issues dominate those situations, not economics. And Mitt Romney knows the only chance he has to be president of the United States is to convince you that he can turn the economy around. He can't run on social issues.

So at this point with President Obama's poll numbers falling, Republicans still have not organized themselves to take advantage of Mr. Obama's weakness. You hear people say it's still early, but it's really not. The summer will fly by and all of a sudden the campaign is underway next fall.

In order to compete, each GOP candidate will have to raise millions of dollars. Romney can do that; the others may have trouble. It is estimated that President Obama will raise close to $1 billion in his re-election bid.

Thursday night on "The Factor" I interviewed Herman Cain. Mr. Cain's candidacy is a very long shot. The same thing with Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann, although the congresswoman should compete well in Iowa. Of course, Sarah Palin remains a wild card. She looks like she's already campaigning, but nobody knows what the heck she'll do.

All in all, at this point it's Mitt Romney's race to lose.

And that's "The Memo."

Pinheads & Patriots

Actor Roger Moore played James Bond in seven films, and since then he hasn't done very much. He is, however, doing charity work on behalf of children for UNICEF.

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ROGER MOORE, ACTOR: Children with disabilities are amongst the most vulnerable members of our society. They're at a higher risk of abuse and neglect, and of missing out on school and basic health care.

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Now, we applaud anyone trying to help children in need, but a funny thing happened about 18 years ago. I was trying to raise some money for a school in Harlem devoted to helping children of addicted parents. We contacted Roger Moore's agent because he was working for UNICEF, who said the actor would be happy to help. The school was thrilled. One big problem: Moore did not show up for the event. Pinhead? Yes. We hope he has turned it around.

— You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads & Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com.