Monday, November 5, 2012
On The O'Reilly Factor...
Segment Summaries
All content taken from The O'Reilly Factor on Fox News Channel. Each weeknight by 6 PM EST a preview of that evening's show will be posted and then updated with additional information the following weekday by noon EST.
Talking Points Memo & Top Story
Who will win?
"It pains me to tell you that I can not make a prediction about Tuesday's vote, I really don't know what's going to happen. But I'm not going to be a total waffle guy. I think Mitt Romney will win Florida, and if the Governor wins Ohio as well he will be the next President of the United States. But that's a big if! President Obama seems to have blunted Romney's momentum over the weekend because of Hurricane Sandy and because the national media simply refuses to cover the Libya situation. If President Obama loses the election, it will be because he could not convince Americans that his big government philosophy would improve the economy. If Mitt Romney loses, it will be because he did not get his message out. Over the last three weeks of the campaign the Governor has played it very cautious and did few meaningful interviews. As you may know, Talking Points does not endorse political candidates, but it is my job to look out for you and the country. Voting for President Obama is risky; he does not seem to be concerned about the $16 trillion debt and does not seem likely to cut spending very much. Maybe if the President gets a mandate, things will improve but, just like in 2008, if you vote for President Obama you are voting on 'hope.' Likewise with Governor Romney. That is also a 'hope' vote, but his philosophy of robust capitalism seems to make a bit more sense than to continue massive government spending. On the down side, the Governor has not fully explained what programs he would cut and how he would keep the treasury afloat while lowering taxes. That is about as fair as I can make it. Again, I can not make a prediction because, even at this late date, some Americans could vote either way and both candidates still have a fighting chance."
Top Story
A final look at the electoral college map
Guests: Karl Rove

Political strategist Karl Rove entered the No Spin Zone with his election eve analysis. He began by questioning some recent national polls. "The ABC News/Washington Post poll, which has Obama ahead by three points, has a sample with a six-point Democrat advantage," he said, "but I don't know of any sane person who thinks the Democrat intensity in this election will match 2008. And CNN has a tied poll with 11 points more Democrats." Rove turned to some of the battleground states. "These are very close calls and both New Hampshire and Iowa, which I awarded to Romney, are really toss-ups. Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are all in play, and in Ohio, let's look at the early vote. Four years ago 340,000 more Democrats than Republicans turned out and voted early or absentee. This year the Democratic advantage is down to 75,000, which is a shift of 265,000 votes! This is a very close race and a lot of states will be settled by thousands of votes or tens of thousands of votes."
Impact Segment
The Democratic prediction on tomorrow's vote
Guests: Kirsten Powers and Mary Anne Marsh

For a view from the other side of the aisle, The Factor welcomed Democratic loyalists Kirsten Powers and Mary Anne Marsh. "People are looking at the polls in completely different ways," Powers said. "Karl Rove believes the polls are weighted the wrong way and you can't rely on them, but I'm in the other camp. I think these polls have been pretty consistent and they point to an Obama win. I'm banking my analysis on people who are familiar with internal polling in the battleground states." Marsh also expressed the utmost confidence in her party and her candidate. "Mitt Romney was in Florida today, a state everyone thought he would have been pinned down by now. Even if President Obama loses Florida, it was worth every penny to keep Romney pinned in Florida, which he can not win the presidency without. Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire have same-day registration, and no one is better at getting those people to the polls than the Obama campaign." The Factor stressed the importance of Florida to Romney's chances: "When the polls close in Florida, if Bret Baier and Megyn Kelly go, 'Obama wins,' it's time to change channels to Gossip Girls. It's over!"
Hume Zone Segment
Brit Hume's presidential prediction
Guests: Brit Hume

Fox News political analyst Brit Hume stepped up to the plate with his final thoughts on Tuesday's election. "The cases we are hearing from both sides are utterly plausible," he stated. "I listened in on conference calls today to the managers of both campaigns, and they both make cases that make you say, 'yep, that could be right.' The national polls say this is a tie, most of the state polls have Obama ahead, and it has never happened before that all the polls are off. On the other hand, the point that Karl Rove made is a very good one - a lot of these polls reflect an electorate which is more Democratic than most people think is going to turn out on Election Day. The enthusiasm level among Obama voters is less than it was four years ago."
Campaign 2012 Segment
No Spin analysis from Charles Krauthammer
Guests: Charles Krauthammer

The Factor was joined by Charles Krauthammer, who contended that Mitt Romney's momentum was temporarily stunted by Hurricane Sandy. "A week ago Romney was up by about five points in the national polls," Dr. K pointed out, "but three things happened with the storm. Number one, he became irrelevant; number two, Obama played the Commander-in-Chief in that situation; number three, and the biggest factor, was the bear hug from Governor Chris Christie. That was the kind of advertising Obama couldn't have purchased with $10 million." Nevertheless, Krauthammer predicted a narrow Romney victory. "Whenever you have a catastrophe, the solidarity effect lasts three days and then you get reality setting in. If you look at the last four national polls, Romney is either tied or ahead by one. There are easy paths for Romney to win electorally if, as I predict, the rebound in the national poll is continuing."
Back of Book Segment
A final look at key swing state polling
Guests: Pat Caddell

Monday's election eve all-star lineup concluded with analysis from pollster extraordinaire Pat Caddell, who focused on Pennsylvania. He theorized that Mitt Romney has a real shot at winning the Keystone State. "I've argued that Ohio, Florida, and Virginia have been poisoned by so much negative advertising," Caddell said, "and after the first debate Romney moved the needle in states that were supposed to be safe for Obama, Pennsylvania among them. The Democrats don't have the ground game there that they have in the swing states. The question for the last-minute people is what are they going to vote on, and the problem for the President is the economy. I think in the last day or two this has swung back toward Romney."
Factor Mail
Viewers sound off
Mark Parker, Jonesville, North Carolina: "Bill, masterful job of cutting to the chase with Lou Dobbs. The bottom line on the economy is that working families have lost close to $5,000 in income during the President's term. That's because the supply of jobs does not meet the demand, therefore employers can pay less."

Alex Christian, New South Wales, Australia: "G'day, Bill. I watched your interview on our '60 Minutes' last night, but the story favored President Obama."

Evan Richards, New York, NY: "Mr. O, I had to evacuate my home last week, but I grabbed my copy of Killing Kennedy on the way out."
Tip Of The Day
Line up for Lincoln
Steven Spielberg's new movie 'Lincoln' is a brilliant film that will likely win the Academy Award for Best Picture.