By Bill O'Reilly

According to Karl Rove, there are just 14 states that could go either way in next year's presidential election. Thirty-six states will most likely support the same party they supported in 2008.

The most important contested states in order of electoral votes are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and North Carolina. If the Republicans were to win those states, it would be very tough for President Obama to be re-elected. And with the economy the way it is, the GOP has a decent chance to take not only those states, but a number of others that are in play.

"Talking Points" believes at this point, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada will most likely vote Republican, assuming the nominee is a credible candidate. Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico and Wisconsin will probably stay in President Obama's camp. That leaves Michigan and Virginia too close to call at this juncture.

It's interesting that 36 states are so intractable. Places like Texas and South Carolina will never vote for President Obama. Likewise, California and Massachusetts will not go for a Republican presidential candidate. That's not good. Americans should keep an open mind about their potential leader. Blindly voting party politics is foolish and can lead to very bad things.

"Talking Points" believes the economy will drive most of the vote, but it is not the most important issue facing the country. The massive federal debt is. That situation must be brought under control quickly. Therefore, the Democratic Party has got to change its approach to spending if it wants to be competitive. Independent-minded Americans understand the feds will not be able to tax their way out of a $14 trillion debt. Huge spending cuts must occur.

If President Obama and his party do not accept that, the Republicans will be in very good shape, despite the chaos on the GOP side right now. The party has no real leader, and the candidates are all over the place when it comes to ideology.

But next year's election will really be about President Obama. The vote will be a referendum on him.

And that's "The Memo."

Pinheads & Patriots

Lady Gaga is running wild these days. She has a new album and is all over the place on TV, including Letterman Monday night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID LETTERMAN, HOST, CBS'S "THE LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN": Let's go right to the list of rumors. Once ate a Barbie doll's head during a concert.

LADY GAGA, SINGER: Yes, all the time.

LETTERMAN: No, that's not true.

LADY GAGA: That is true.

LETTERMAN: That's not true.

LADY GAGA: Why are you asking me?

LETTERMAN: That will poison you. That's polypropylene.

LADY GAGA: I'm just so fed up with all of it.

LETTERMAN: Hey, how about this one? What did you -- oh no, no, no, no.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

I think Lady Gaga is a patriot for eating Dave's note cards. I wish I had thought of that when I was on the Letterman program. I would have done that. My newspaper column this week will be on why Lady Gaga is such a success. There is a reason.

On the pinhead front, ladies and gentlemen, Ahmadinejad saying Europe is keeping rain away from Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD, IRANIAN PRESIDENT: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

GRAPHIC: We had reports that they are doing this in Europe. They are emptying the clouds so that they will not move our way. Rather, this is a premeditated event. We will not permit such a disgraceful thing to take place. It is clear that when rain becomes scarce, more conflicts develop over water in border areas.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

Pinhead doesn't even begin to cover this guy. And keep in mind, he could be in charge of nuclear weapons pretty soon.

— You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads & Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com.