By Bill O'Reilly

Political campaigns are like football games. You have to find the opposing team's weakness and exploit it in order to score.

Barack Obama well understands that his economic plan has not worked. He knows that most Americans are unhappy with the state of the union and are open to voting him out. So the president must do two things: He must retain his base and get them jazzed to once again vote for him, and he must demonize his opposition. Mr. Obama is directly appealing to this base, comprised of minority voters as well as union workers and devoted liberals. The president is spending a lot of time courting them:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRESIDENT OBAMA: So I don't know about you, CBC, but the future rewards those who press on. With patient and firm determination, I'm going to press on for jobs. I'm going to press on for equality. I'm going to press on for the sake of all those families who are struggling right now.

I promised you I would work tirelessly to fix our broken immigration system and make the Dream Act a reality.

We're fighting for good jobs with good wages ... Our economy is stronger when we've got broad-based growth and broad-based prosperity. That's what unions have always been about, shared prosperity.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

If President Obama's base does turn out in great numbers, he has a chance. If they do not, the Republicans will win big. So to assure a big turnout, the Democrats are trying to brand the Tea Party as the face of the Republican Party. And by doing that, some disturbing things are happening:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There are some members of the Tea Party who are black, some prominent members: Allen West, Herman Cain.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You know what we call them?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What do you call them?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oreos.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oreos?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Black on the outside, white on the inside.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

Now that's just awful, and President Obama would be wise to distance himself from that kind of hate speech.

"Talking Points" has said in the past that the election of 2012 will largely be a referendum on President Obama. Yes, the Republican challenger will be important, but at this point all the polls say the same thing: More Americans want the president out than want him to continue. The class warfare strategy of promoting tax cuts for working Americans and tax increases for the affluent has some potential for Barack Obama, but only if the Republicans fail to make a good economic case.

One vivid example: I would accept an income tax rate of five percent more, but only if Mr. Obama and Congress drastically cut spending first and knock out the co-called Solyndra syndrome -- that is wasting taxpayer dollars on foolish ventures. Why would any American, including Warren Buffett, accept higher taxes when there is so much irresponsible and wasteful federal spending going on? It's just insane.

Most Americans do not vote ideology. They want performance. They want honest and fair government. President Obama has his coalition, and the Republicans have one, too. But it is the folks in the middle who will make the final call.

And that's "The Memo."

Pinheads & Patriots

I must apologize for being overexposed this week. I owe it to my publisher to promote "Killing Lincoln," and so I did:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC NEWS: We're going to come back and in the last hour talk about "Killing Lincoln," your new book.

O'REILLY: All right, George. Thanks. You read it I understand, which is shocking.

STEPHANOPOULOS: I did read it. Flipped through it. Shocking? You don't think I read?

O'REILLY: I'm very flattered.

The overriding arch in "Killing Lincoln" is Abraham Lincoln himself, what a good, decent, compassionate man he was.

I wrote this book so even Bernie could read it.

DON IMUS, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: That ain't right. Bernie is a lot smarter than I am.

O'REILLY: It's for high school dropouts, but it's exciting, and it's a thriller.

The real reason I wrote this book was because I know most people don't read history books, and they certainly don't teach it in school. I mean, I'm a history major. I got a history degree. I taught history. I didn't know 90 percent of this.

People need to know when they vote for president in 2012, they need to know what the gold standard of leadership is for this country, and it is Abraham Lincoln.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

Wednesday is "The View" and Jon Stewart, and I believe I may be a pinhead for foisting myself upon the nation.

— You can catch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Pinheads & Patriots" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the Fox News Channel and any time on foxnews.com/oreilly. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com.