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As Super Tuesday approaches on March 5, it is apparent that Donald Trump will secure the Republican nomination soon after that date. I expect Trump to defeat Nikki Haley by a wide margin in South Carolina, but she will most likely continue to raise her name recognition for 2028 until March 6 - after which she'll drop out.
Then Mr. Trump will have to deal with the legal stuff. Here's where we stand with that.
The Georgia vote interference case has blown up over District Attorney Fani Willis's irresponsible behavior. I expect her to be replaced, and if she's not, an appeal will neutralize any guilty verdict. Key question: was Ms. Willis coordinating with the Biden White House? Looks like she was.
The Stormy Daniels hush money case in New York is weak and politically driven. It doesn't seem likely to hurt Trump, no matter what happens. Same thing with the civil case against the Trump organization in Manhattan.
The "conspiracy" case regarding January 6 in DC is also weak. Trump has a number of exculpatory facts that raise reasonable doubt.
That leaves the classified documents/Mar-a-Lago situation. Since the Justice Department gave President Biden a pass on the same thing, the Florida federal judge is very likely to be skeptical of the case, which helps Trump A LOT, as he might say.
Never before in the history of this country has politics intruded on an election the way it is now. The Supreme Court has to know how dangerous this is.
Enjoy the weekend. New column on Sunday.
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