August 31, 2010 Stratfor.com: Rethinking American Options on Iran Public discussion of potential attacks on Iran's nuclear development sites is surging again. This has happened before. On several occasions, leaks about potential airstrikes have created an atmosphere of impending war. These leaks normally coincided with diplomatic initiatives and were designed to intimidate the Iranians and facilitate a settlement favorable to the United States and Israel. These initiatives have failed in the past. It is therefore reasonable to associate the current avalanche of reports with the imposition of sanctions and view it as an attempt to increase the pressure on Iran and either force a policy shift or take advantage of divisions within the regime.  Read More Posted by George Friedman, Stratfor.com at 2:20 PM - Link to this entry  Share this entry

August 24, 2010 Stratfor.com: Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks, Again The Israeli government and the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) have agreed to engage in direct peace talks Sept. 2 in Washington. Neither side has expressed any enthusiasm about the talks. In part, this comes from the fact that entering any negotiations with enthusiasm weakens your bargaining position. But the deeper reason is simply that there have been so many peace talks between the two sides and so many failures that it is difficult for a rational person to see much hope in them. Moreover, the failures have not occurred for trivial reasons. They have occurred because of profound divergences in the interests and outlooks of each side.  Read More Posted by George Friedman, Stratfor.com at 3:11 PM - Link to this entry  Share this entry

August 17, 2010 Stratfor.com: The U.S. Withdrawal and Limited Options in Iraq It is August 2010, which is the month when the last U.S. combat troops are scheduled to leave Iraq. It is therefore time to take stock of the situation in Iraq, which has changed places with Afghanistan as the forgotten war. This is all the more important since 50,000 troops will remain in Iraq, and while they may not be considered combat troops, a great deal of combat power remains embedded with them. So we are far from the end of the war in Iraq. The question is whether the departure of the last combat units is a significant milestone and, if it is, what it signifies.  Read More Posted by George Friedman, Stratfor.com at 1:05 PM - Link to this entry  Share this entry

August 10, 2010 Stratfor.com: Drought, Fire and Grain in Russia Three interlocking crises are striking Russia simultaneously: the highest recorded temperatures Russia has seen in 130 years of recordkeeping; the most widespread drought in more than three decades; and massive wildfires that have stretched across seven regions, including Moscow.  Read More Posted by Lauren Goodrich, Stratfor.com at 1:52 PM - Link to this entry  Share this entry

August 4, 2010 Stratfor.com: Arizona, Borderlands and U.S.-Mexican Relations Arizona's new law on illegal immigration went into effect last week, albeit severely limited by a federal court ruling. The U.S. Supreme Court undoubtedly will settle the matter, which may also trigger federal regulations. However that turns out, the entire issue cannot simply be seen as an internal American legal matter. More broadly, it forms part of the relations between the United States and Mexico, two sovereign nation-states whose internal dynamics and interests are leading them into an era of increasing tension. Arizona and the entire immigration issue have to be viewed in this broader context.  Read More Posted by George Friedman, Stratfor.com at 4:13 PM - Link to this entry  Share this entry