Donald Trump's Big Gamble
By: Bill O'ReillySeptember 6, 2016
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By going to Mexico last week, Mr. Trump signaled that he is willing to engage in diplomacy.

But as soon as he got back to the USA, he repeated his policy of being tough on illegal aliens.

There was some nuance, but not much.

And that is Mr. Trump's big gamble.

He is hoping that American voters are fed up with a federal government that will not enforce immigration law thereby allowing chaos to reign and actual harm to come to Americans like Kate Steinle.

The Republican ticket apparently believes there are many voters who are silently sick of permissive immigration policies in place for decades.

Remember, if you are outspoken about enforcing immigration laws the left will brand you a nativist and perhaps a racist.

That's a vicious card to play and it has inhibited speech to some extent.

There is no question that illegal immigration is an explosive issue - one that allowed Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination.

Again it comes down to this: Are most American voters fed up with anarchy?

Tough question to answer because you can't count on the polls to indicate true feelings.

As mentioned, many people shy away from openly supporting tough measures against illegal aliens even though they may support them.

For those voters Trump offers a border wall, a crackdown on sanctuary cities, and zero tolerance for aliens who commit crimes on American soil.

That's a powerful lure for disenchanted voters.

That being said, there is no question that Donald Trump will not, will not deport millions of aliens who have been peaceful while residing in the USA.

He seems to be moderating his position on that.

More than a year ago we discussed the issue.

O'REILLY: "Listen, I think you are right about the wall.  I think you are wrong about the mass deportations and going into families.  I think they have to be held accountable and I think they have to be registered and they have to go through the process.  But I can't possibly see how the courts, the federal courts, are going to allow federal agents to kick doors in and drag people out." 

At the time Donald Trump disagreed with me.  So what's changed?

We'll talk with him in a moment.

Although it's not directly linked, the race situation is also a problem for Mr. Trump.

The truth is, African Americans will not vote for him in any great numbers primarily because the Democratic Party retains credibility in the black precincts.

Also, Donald Trump is identified as being a birther - someone who has questioned President Obama's American citizenship.

Many black Americans do not like that.

However, it is very possible that African Americans will not turn out in great numbers this coming November.

Certainly Secretary Clinton is not as popular as President Obama with black voters.

Donald Trump's foray to Detroit was a wise move even though the usual suspects slammed him.

REVE. WENDELL ANTHONY: “Your platform as the leader of the Republican Party does not speak to a civil rights agenda.  You’re talking about civil rights when you are engaging in civil wrongs to the degree that your party doesn’t speak to it, you have never spoken to it, and we don’t know who Donald Trump really is.”

It's almost amusing that Reverend Anthony excoriates the Republican Party's racial policies when the Democrats have allowed the city of Detroit to be destroyed right before his own eyes.

Politics trumping reality once again.

Talking Points well understands that Donald Trump will have to overwhelmingly win the white vote to have any chance at being president.

And last week's immigration and race story lines might have helped him.

A new CNN poll out today has Trump leading Hillary Clinton 49 to 48

If you factor in the other two alternative candidates, Trump wins 45-43.

That's a big turn around from mid-August and it was driven, according to CNN, by 90% of Republican voters now supporting Trump.

The L.A. Times Daily Tracking Poll has the race tied, Trump 44, Clinton 44. 

NBC News poll has it Clinton 48, Trump 42

In a four-way race - Clinton 41, Trump 37.

So again, Trump is making some progress - or so the polls say.

But it all comes down to electoral votes and here Donald Trump has some difficulty.

Hillary Clinton is competing in states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Those states usually vote Republican.

Donald Trump needs to win those three, Florida, Ohio and either Pennsylvania or Michigan to be competitive.

That will not be easy.

Summing up, Trump's tough stance on immigration looks to be a winner for him at this point.

The race deal is primarily symbolic.  Blacks will vote for Mrs. Clinton.

But with a debate coming up in less than three weeks, Trump still has a fighting chance.

And that's the memo.