After reading the details of the nuke deal, I can tell you that Iran got the better of the negotiation.

The undeniable fact is that the Iranians do not have to submit to snap inspections, so they can cheat if they want to and they may get away with it.

Twenty-four days is a long time to wait before inspectors can examine suspicious activities. 

Now it is true that some Americans and the Israeli government would oppose a nuke deal with Iran no matter what.

The only thing that would win them over would be a total cessation of nuclear activity in that country, to which the Mullahs would never agree.

It is also true that President Obama sees the issue in stark terms: either you make a deal or Iran develops a nuke and war breaks out.

But here the president makes a mistake.  He could have held out a bit longer and upped the sanctions that would have given the USA more leverage.

Mr. Obama's press conference was very instructive today.

He took a few questions and answered them as a college professor would, with long explanations full of asides.

There were no follow-ups, no challenges to his answers.

So that's what Talking Points will do now.

Here is the toughest moment in the press conference:

MAJOR GARRETT, CBS NEWS: “As you well know, there are four Americans in Iran--three held on trumped up charges, according to your administration.  One, whereabouts unknown.  Can you tell the country sir why you are content with all the fanfare around this deal to leave the conscious of this nation, the strength of this nation, unaccounted for in relation to these four Americans?  And last week, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said under no circumstances should there be any relief for Iran in terms of ballistic missiles or conventional weapons.  It is perceived that was a last minute capitulation in these negotiations.  Many in the Pentagon feel you left the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff hung out to dry.  Could you comment?”

OBAMA: “I’ve got to give you credit Major for how you craft those questions.  The notion that I'm content as I celebrate with American citizens languishing in Iranian jails -- Major, that's nonsense.  And you should know better.”

Mr. Obama went on to give a long, windy answer that made two points.

The four Americans hostages being held in Iran could not be part of the negotiation because that would have empowered Iran.

And the USA will closely monitor any missiles and weapons to make sure Iran doesn't give them to terrorists.

On the first point, the president certainly could have asked for the Americans to be released and should have.  Maybe he's working behind the scenes.  Maybe.

On the weapons front, the Iranians will get them in five to eight years and will likely use them, including ballistic missiles.

By that time Mr. Obama will be making millions lecturing.

But all of that is small ball to Mr. Obama.  Here's the crux of the president's argument:

OBAMA: “The point I've repeatedly made, and I believe hard to dispute, is that it'll be a lot easier for us to check Iran's nefarious activities -- to push back against the other areas where they operate contrary to our interests or our allies' interests -- if they don't have a bomb.”

It's the old keep your enemies closer philosophy.

Now to address the very large concern that 24 days to inspect is absurd, the president said this about confronting Iran's ability to cheat:

OBAMA: “In the agreement, we've set it up so we can override Iran's objection.  And we don't need Russia or China in order for us to get that override. ((EDIT)) As for the fact it may take 24 days to finally get access to the site, the nature of nuclear programs and facilities is such … this is not something you hide in a closet.”

Maybe, but there is no question that if Iran decides to cheat it will have breathing room to obscure the situation.

In the press conference today Barack Obama demonstrated once again that he is a true believer … in himself.

His demeanor clearly showed he has no doubts that he did the right thing and once again defused conflict overseas. 

That has been his foreign policy from the very beginning, avoiding armed confrontation.

And we can see the result of that as the world absorbs a tremendous amount of instability and violence.

Talking Points is not a knee-jerk platform.

War with Iran would be a disaster.

But this nuke deal is a gamble, one that -- like the total pull out from Iraq -- could lead to terrible consequences.

President Obama the gambler believes he knows when to fold 'em.

He did that for a deal that has delighted the Mullahs and divided Americans.

A deal that will clearly define itself only in the years to come. 

And that's the memo.